Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 16th August 2012>

[LincolnSnowstorm]

almost uninterrupted thunder here at the mo, and nice show of lightning

[catgirl]

sure I heard a distant roll of thunder. What is currently above me now has potential to be amazing elsewhere.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&subpage_0=12

I guess I'm in the line of fire!

[mattyk1985]

These going to continue for a bit overnight? There all just missing me :-(

[Darren Bown]

Well I can't see much to suggest showers continuing tonight in these parts, although Diane on NW tonight mentioned it.

[Staffordshire]

This is unbelivable, it was on my door step then started heading south ugh

[Supacell]

Wow! Caught a storm around Ashbourne and ended up having to hide in a barn from the torrential rain. Literally constant thunder, some very loud and flashes of lightning (all IC type). I have never heard thunder that frequent, it was like explosions going off in all directions - some louder and closer than others.

Appears it then hit Ripley from my family reports. Spenna, sorry I didn't reply I was chasing. But yes, it was a beauty,

Also got some fantastic mammatus from a thundery shower before the main event came.

Great day, and a bonus as I didn't honestly expect anything this far south (i'm in Derbyshire currently).

[Muffelchen]

One clap of thunder at 18:15 and a few sferics on am, that's all for this usually good neck of the woods, storm wise. Been missing them constantly now for about a month or so, which is very unusual but can't complain with another thunder day today - even if only just!

[LincolnSnowstorm]

nice end to the thunder and rain

[I Cumbria Marra I]

storms dying over the irish sea to a dark cloud then travels 20 miles inland and BOOM you have a storm.

[ItIsGee]

north wales, something breing there heading my way hopefully!

[syed2878]

Hey guys anymore tnl for brum? Tonight.

[IanM]

How do i add photos? I just want to show how im stuck between to nasty looking cells with a Cu going up right next to the one?

You can drop them directly into your post using the 'Attach Files' option on the full editor, or if you have them posted online already you can link to them using the tools in the menu (just below the font colour options).

Ian

[davehsug]

That storm from 4.00-4.30 today had some biblical rain & enough thunder to get me out of the no storms club at last.

[Supacell]

Just saw a flash of lightning to the east - would be towards Derby. However, will be moving away from me if its to my east.

[skyblusam]

http://www.blitzortu...en&subpage_0=12

I guess I'm in the line of fire!

Why oh why are you using that link. Just use this http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess= Its great it has the lightning overlay rain radar and sat too.Try it its free and brill mate

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Thanks for the tip skyblusam ,still learning the web site , fired up a google search super quick when the thunder and lightning kicked off.

[Coast]

Low chances today, ESTOFEX have the entire UK in its map:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Wed 22 Aug 2012 06:00 to Thu 23 Aug 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 22 Aug 2012 06:45

Forecaster: PUCIK

SYNOPSIS

As a de-amplifying ridge moves towards Russia, a band of strong southwesterlies/westerlies with several embedded PV maxima is forecast to overspread most of Western and Central Europe, especially the northern half. Closer to the surface, a frontal zone translates towards southeast across Germany, Czech Republic and Poland, within the mild surface trough that is connected to the larger scale low pressure system over the Northern/Norwegian Sea and Scandinavia.

00 UTC soundings show some modest latent instability over most of Central Europe, with the highest degree over southern Germany. Also, strengthening wind fields are discernible close to the frontal zone. Currently, between 5 and 6 UTC, a quasi-linear MCS formed over borders of Germany/Poland and Northern Bohemia, progressing eastwards.

They are not out on their own with this one, with UKASF also forecasting:

Areas Affected:

Upper trough located to the north of the British Isles, with a shortwave migrating eastwards during the day. Subsequent cooling in the mid-levels (typically -22C at 500mb) will steepen lapse rates, leading to another day of fairly widespread convection.

Synopsis:

Discussion:

Diurnal heating with cooling aloft will result in 500-1000J/kg CAPE, with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to develop, and drift eastwards on an increasing westerly wind.

The best instability is found to the north of the main jet, and thus shear and instability tend not to overlap, so some slight concern here is that despite some significant instability present across Scotland, a lack of shear might lead to poorly-organised convection and excessive cloud amounts.

Some 20-40kts DLS will be present across southern portions of northern England, and much of Ireland and so here showers/storms will probably become better organised.

Local low-level speed shear may result in a funnel or weak tornado, while hail is likely in some of the stronger cores, potentially up to 3.0cm in diameter, primarily across eastern Scotland. Initial fast storm-motion should limit the flash flood risk somewhat, but cell backbuilding (due to local convergence and/or linear organisation of showers) may enhance this risk.

What other charts or evidence supports it?

21st OWS say the very tippy-top of NE Scotland maybe:

Although lightning ensembles indicate the West coast of Scotland:

Aviation weather says NE Scotland too:

Coinciding with a lump of CAPE in that area according to HiRLAM:

Lapse rates OK:

Interesting but small tornado possibility:

Simple format GFS has thunderstorms breaking out across Scotland, Northern Ireland and a tiny bit of NW England depending on the time of day:

[Stuart]

let see if today better then tue that was a big let down only had rain

[Nick F]

Storm forecast for today: http://www.netweathe...4c18584c798988d

The northern half of the UK and Ireland the best place to be today.

[Supacell]

Looks like thunderstorms across Northern Ireland are making the trip across the Irish Sea and should affect SW Scotland and maybe Cumbria shortly.

A lot of opportunities in the coming days as the sunshine and showers scenario we have become so used to this summer continues. I'm not complaining, although it makes planning outdoor activities that more difficult it has brought a large number of storms to parts of the country this season.

Saturday looks particularly good at present

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Looks like thunderstorms across Northern Ireland are making the trip across the Irish Sea and should affect SW Scotland and maybe Cumbria shortly.

A lot of opportunities in the coming days as the sunshine and showers scenario we have become so used to this summer continues. I'm not complaining, although it makes planning outdoor activities that more difficult it has brought a large number of storms to parts of the country this season.

Saturday looks particularly good at present

nope they died over the irish sea as always

[Supacell]

nope they died over the irish sea as always

And yet the showers that have exited into the North Sea have turned into thunderstorms as always. I wonder why the North Sea seems to intensify them whereas the Irish Sea and Channel seem to shred them?

[Aaron]

Because storms traveling across the Irish Sea and the English Channel are heading towards the UK.. we can't have storms actually reaching here can we?

[Coast]

A quiet period coming up in the South and Scotland:

Something brewing in the North over the BH weekend?