Uk General Convective Discussion & Forecasts, 28th August 2012>

[simon29]

It came through here before 5 but looks to have picked up in intensity over the last hour, especially over yorkshire.

[itsnowjoke]

I have rain and pink skies

[Coast]

Well despite me calling a continuing quiet period (shows what I know ) ESTOFEX are showing an area of potential for today over Ireland, Scotland and the North:

SYNOPSIS

A decaying upper low over the Aegean Sea continues its weakening trend while moving slowly east. Another flat upper trough approaches the Iberian Peninsula during the forecast, inserting lowering geopotential heights. The most dominant feature however will be a potent cyclonic vortex over far N-Europe, which expands to the S/SE. Along its eastern fringe, rapid cyclogenesis occurs over Sweden and Finland. At the surface, high pressure expands from the W-Mediterranean to Russia, resulting in more stable conditions regarding DMC activity

Scotland, N-UK and parts of the North Sea ...

Isolated thunderstorms may occur during the passage of numerous disturbances. The main hazard will be marginal hail and strong wind gusts.

Apart from this mornings BBC TV forecast calling thundery rain in the North, they are on their own with it so far, Here are some other sources to compare:

Very little CAPE:

some shear:

More SBCAPE:

and some good lapse rates:

Lots of rain:

Small tornado potential:

Lighter convective gusts across the boarders:

Some thundery activity already on the way?

Through the morning:

Then out into the North Sea:

[Coast]

06 Z GFS has completely dumped the convective potential for Friday now:

From hero to zero in a couple of runs:

Such is life, just shouldn't get too worked up about thing this far out again I guess!

[Coast]

A bit of activity around Ayr/Prestwick an hour or so ago, did anybody see or hear anything?

[NUT]

A bit of activity around Ayr/Prestwick an hour or so ago, did anybody see or hear anything?

Nothing here although saying that skies are darkening again

[Karl83]

Hello eye candy! Yum yum!

Obviously its too far out to take seriously but nice to see none the less. So hopefully from next Tuesday onwards.

Edited September 17, 2012 by Thunder_Bolt

[Liam Ellis]

Can confirm a small thunderstorm here about an hour ago. (Currently back home in Deiniolen, Gwynedd, NW Wales)

Edited September 17, 2012 by Liam Ellis

[Coast]

Obviously its too far out to take seriously but nice to see none the less. So hopefully from next Tuesday onwards.

I've been stung once this week already with something brewing in the near future! GFS doesn't seem to develop it fully yet:

[Karl83]

I've been stung once this week already with something brewing in the near future! GFS doesn't seem to develop it fully yet:

Lets wait and see mate. I am so desperate for one last blast I'll clutch to anything right now. :-)

Edited September 18, 2012 by Thunder_Bolt

[Coast]

Lets wait and see mate. I am so desperate for one last blast I'll clutch to anything right now. :-)

You and me both buddy! It's dragging on a bit into the end of the season but I'm going to remain positive and keep looking out for tentative signs. TBH I don't like this bit of the weather year between the end of the thunderstorm season and the beginning of the snow potential. I can only hope that as we missed out on anything truly convective this year in my part of the World, we get a damn great dump of white stuff to make up for it.

[Interitus]

There's still a chance tropical storm Nadine could deliver for you (as you know from the hurricane threads). If it manages to break through the ridge of high pressure between the Atlantic and Europe it's looking like it would merge with an extra-tropical low and bring a massive plume from Iberia and north Africa. But the models are all over the place with some having it looping the loop and head back across the Atlantic, interesting system.

[weatherobsuk]

Had a real humdinger of a shower at 10am this morning which sure dragged me outta bed. small hail pellets, a few strong gusts of wind, I thought there was a squall-line moving through it got that bad for a time before clearing as quick as it came.

No lightning but can't complain.

[Alex95]

Heavy rain & hail showers this afternoon, and one rumble of thunder about 5 minutes ago.

[NL]

Heavy rain & hail showers this afternoon, and one rumble of thunder about 5 minutes ago.

Thought I heard thunder, not surprising considering the Cb's floating around here and the radar echoes are very bright. We also had quite a hail shower about an hour ago.

[Geordiesnow]

Just heard another rumble of thunder(think that was the 3rd one this afternoon) and just had a very heavy hail shower also, some impressive size hail considering the look of the skies!

Classic Polar Maritime weather.

[NL]

Here's a few photos, none with lightning unfortunately. (Thunder still clattering on..!!)

[Dom W]

Yes that cloud is passing to the east of Peterlee now. No thunder heard yet, but a nice looking cloud.

[Liam J]

Had some pretty hefty showers here this afternoon, travelling along the A66 earlier right into a wall of water - Slowed down to 40mph on the dual carriageway.

[itsnowjoke]

Got a garden with a pond..i didnt have a pond this morning

Here's a few photos, none with lightning unfortunately. (Thunder still clattering on..!!)

cracking pictures

Had hefty hail ahowersvabout 12.00 noon WOW

[itsnowjoke]

Sorry cant spell today sorry about above post

[NL]

Lightning out into the North sea can be observed from my bedroom window, intermittent but as always at night quite spectacular. I would go and take some photos but knowing my luck I'd get all set up and the lightning would cease and at only 9ºC out there in a breeze gusting to 18mph it'll be pretty cold.

[Andy_]

I was wondering where this thread was earlier, didn't expect any activity today, managed 3 booms of thunder and 2 rounds of hail, not bad

[Cloud 10]

Still some meaty showers out over the north sea with a few strikes still showing up.

I was just south of that shower over tyneside today and could see the hail-shafts coming down.

[Convective]

Some heavy showers here the last few days. First hail today though, once at about 1pm and again at about 4:30pm mixed in with the rain. Very small hail though and no lightning. Some good photos taken the last few days. I will upload some soon!