Uk General Convective Discussion & Forecasts, 28th August 2012>

[ZONE 51]

Recent Lightning activity in Kent as shown on the chart:

We can expect some more thundery action to develop overnight across the south..

It's not over yet and more significant flooding is possible, even in areas not yet seen a lot of rainfall is at risk through tonight and wednesday,

2230pm radar(above)

This is NAE model for 0600hrs-1200hrs, alot of heavy and thundery rainfall, spreading across to the south and east.

Edited September 25, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Coast]

A very weak area of possibilities over the Southern half of the UK from ESTOFEX, really sums up the low chances for today:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Wed 26 Sep 2012 06:00 to Thu 27 Sep 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Tue 25 Sep 2012 20:49

Forecaster: PUCIK

SYNOPSIS

A large, mid and upper level trough over the Atlantic is expected to fill during the forecast period with its base amplifying towards Northwestern Africa towards Thursday morning. A belt of strong mid/upper level winds will persist near the base and the forward flank of the trough. Closer to the surface, a well occludded low centered over the British Isles will fill in quite quickly, with its frontal system only slowly translating towards east over Western / Central Europe. Higher geopotentials are expected to build over the eastern part of Europe during the day.

Generally speaking, unfavorable conditions for widespread and severe thunderstorms will be present over Europe, as steep lapse rates will be confined only to the

A/ postfrontal airmass of western Europe cold front system, but in the limited low level moisture

B/ area with EML over Southern and Central Mediterranean with too strong cap to be overcome

Frontal zone itself will manifest only marginal latent instability with perhaps spotty weak thunderstorms, deserving only 15% prob tstm line.

No one else is even mentioning it so here are a sprinkling of charts just to confirm or deny that chance:

21st OWS have last nights Kent activity exiting into the North Sea:

Aviation weather chart show similar to ESTOFEX (notice Nadine is still out there)

Weak MLCAPE not enough to make a spark?

Still some rain hanging on to the South coast:

SBCAPE is OK:

LAPSE rates better to the North:

Simple format overview from GFS has something to the SW:

Then into the Midlands later:

Disappearing into The Channel:

Overall I think it is a low provability day, but keep an eye on the radar and the skies!

[Nick F]

Storm forecast for today: http://www.netweathe...onvective;sess=

Valid: 26/09/2012 10:00 - 27/09/2012 06:00

Headline: ... THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...

Synopsis

Unseasonably intense low that moved north early this week will continue to slide back SW across western UK and slowly fill. Airmass will be unstable across England and Wales.

... ENGLAND and WALES ...

Intense downpours running NE across SE England and East England along an occluded front will continue to bring a risk of localised flooding along with isolated sferics this moning. Otherwise, heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms will spread and develop inland across many parts of England and Wales this morning and into the afternoon. Showers/storms will be more slow-moving than Tuesday, as isobars around the low in the west begin to widen, so there is a risk that the more intense downpours could lead to localised flooding, given already saturated ground. Also, showers/storms maybe accompanied by hail and gusty winds. With weak vertical shear, no severe weather is anticipated other than the risk of localised flooding.

[AWD]

Heavy shower currently here.

[MP-R]

Rumble of thunder here and turning jet black from the south. Something sounds like it's brewing!

[Andy Bown]

Yes it's taken a while for things to get going but they certainly have now with several batches of heavy and now thundery showers across

Wiltshire, Somerset and the Bath/Bristol areas. The first rain since around 07.00 currently falling here.

Fascinating to view the radar with the showers spiralling around the LOW which is slowly sinking South over the West Country.

[Coast]

Rumble of thunder here and turning jet black from the south. Something sounds like it's brewing!

Well GFS got that about right today!

[MP-R]

Anyone else experiencing problems with raintoday?

[Coast]

Anyone else experiencing problems with raintoday?

There's tonnes of it here!!!!

[Methuselah]

Rumble of thunder here and turning jet black from the south. Something sounds like it's brewing!

Aye. And it's all going to 'beam' itself to Lincoln!

[MP-R]

There's tonnes of it here!!!!

Simply hilarious Coast!

One flash seen and thunder getting louder. Think it's over WSM at the moment.

[Andy Bown]

5 mins of combined heavy rain and bright sunshine have failed to produce a rainbow which, had one formed, would have been against a jet black CB backdrop and perfect for photographing, that's a new occurence for me! Sometimes drizzle and hazy sunshine can produce rainbows so quite an odd occurence!

Stunning sky now with plenty of CBs, anvils, TCu and large breaks of blue sky!

Edit : NW radar showing lightning has been detected over Salisbury Plain to the SE of Devizes.

Edited September 26, 2012 by Andy Bown

[Mapantz]

Tap on ... tap off .. tap on ... tap off ..

Only short sharp showers here at the moment, a nice one has grazed me to the east, you can see it on my webcam.

I've missed all the action since Sunday/Monday morning really

[MarkThomas]

Loud crack of thunder i recorded on my camera

[MP-R]

Must have been the one I heard here mate. Gone quiet here for the time being but now the onset of torrential rain.

[Liam J]

A couple of sharp showers here in the last hour, nothing of any note really - which is a good thing given how saturated everything is after the last few days!

Edited September 26, 2012 by Liam J

[Andy Bown]

Another storm has fired over East Somerset/The Mendip hills and the CB currently over my town is so deep there's practically daytime darkness.

[AWD]

It makes interesting radar watching, the way the cells are spiralling around the centre if the LP.

Can see dark clouds to my south now, expecting something here very soon!

[gottolovethisweather]

Another storm has fired over East Somerset/The Mendip hills and the CB currently over my town is so deep there's practically daytime darkness.

It is exactly the same here as well. I also distinctly remember Peter Gibbs (I think it was) talking about the depth of the clouds in the original Nadine system as being 6-7 miles high.

Will the weather gods please provide me with some Thunder, I wonder?

A whole line of cells stretching along M4 now from Bristol right up to near me.

Edited September 26, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Sainsbo]

Nice storm in the past hour in Swindon. Lots of large cracks of thunder, a a few lightning strikes and Torrential rain for about 20 minutes. Must have dumped half an inch of rain or more, the roads were underwater in places.

[itsnowjoke]

Yeah its finally stopped raining at last and its sunny..WOW

[Raidan]

Didn't think I'd be posting on here until next storm season but have dark skies and big cb's and a anvil here but haven't seen or heard a thing.

[MP-R]

Had another random rumble about 20 minutes ago following the main cell earlier this afternoon. Now just persistent very heavy / torrential rain. Having just been through the village, the puddles are quickly becoming lakes once again.

[AderynCoch]

Loud thunder here and lashing it down (yet again).

[carl1980]

Great storm in Liverpool waiting for it to die down so I can go home