Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3

[SnowObsessor90]

Hi Paul.

So if i want to post a beautifully cold looking cfs chart for November, I should do that in the model thread and not here? Doesn't seem to be much consistency there. However, you're the boss so fair enough:)

Personally I don't see much credence to the idea of Azores dominating early November, and I'm liking gp's idea of northern blocking continuing from latter October into November

true as it stands it's only one run but that tropical storm starting show up on the GFS could potentially throw a spanner in the works.

[johnholmes]

I don't buy into the .3c temperature rise meaning we couldn't get a winter like 1962/63 again, whilst a winter like that is highly unlucky, it's not impossible. 1947 was a cold and very snowy winter, snowier than 1962/63 in many places, those two famous winters were only 16 years apart

I think my comment about the world being 0.3 to 0.5C warmer than in 1962-63 is being a touch misquoted.

I don't believe I said it was not possible, simply that fact made it a little harder to get such a winter-3 months that average out at, I think, 0.4C from Dec 1 to Feb 28. I do believe being realistic that the chances of that kind of winter are less than 1%. It is after all the 3rd coldest ever since 1658, statistics alone would make it pretty unlikely.

[UV-RAY]

I think my comment about the world being 0.3 to 0.5C warmer than in 1962-63 is being a touch misquoted.

I don't believe I said it was not possible, simply that fact made it a little harder to get such a winter-3 months that average out at, I think, 0.4C from Dec 1 to Feb 28. I do believe being realistic that the chances of that kind of winter are less than 1%. It is after all the 3rd coldest ever since 1658, statistics alone would make it pretty unlikely.

Sorry John I assumed you was meaning it was unlikely, yes I agree it's a little harder although no way I'm I suggesting we will see one this or any other winter in the next ???? so may years.

[summer blizzard]

The key with 62/63 was the persistence of cold synoptics for 2 1/2 months.

In terms of a cold CET month though (sub 1c) this is still achievable. I would probably put odds of around 5% chance on this every winter?

December 2010 would indicate a floor of -1C (ish) for a CET in Jan or Feb which means that stastically if sustained then we could in theory beat 1963, of course December 2010 was an anomoly however so i'd say something on par with Feb 10 is more likely.

[summer blizzard]

I think we here can forget about winter for another month and even then it will be short lived I think. December is the first month where snow and ice can exist in ernest. The SST's dictate that for us here in the UK.

I disagree.

Whilst rare lowland snow can occur in the second half of October and the second halves of both Nov 05 and Nov 10 both saw means below 2C, infact for November as a whole 1915 and 1923 both saw means below 4C (i.e. below the average winter CET).

Certainly we should not expect such readings but in a perfect synoptic environment winter could begin in mid to late October.

[bobbydog]

it seems some people are never happy. we've got good long range indicators suggesting potential for a decent winter, which could involve some good dumpings of snow for many (could and potential being important words to note...) yet some are apparently going to be disappointed if we dont get a 62/63 style winter!! rein it in a bit! just some snow would be nice!

[johnholmes]

I've posted in the model thread some views that tend to spill over into this thread if anyone is interested?

[Suburban Streamer]

it seems some people are never happy. we've got good long range indicators suggesting potential for a decent winter, which could involve some good dumpings of snow for many (could and potential being important words to note...) yet some are apparently going to be disappointed if we dont get a 62/63 style winter!! rein it in a bit! just some snow would be nice!

Yeah if I get one decent snow event in a winter then I'm happy!

[garbagebags]

it seems some people are never happy. we've got good long range indicators suggesting potential for a decent winter, which could involve some good dumpings of snow for many (could and potential being important words to note...) yet some are apparently going to be disappointed if we dont get a 62/63 style winter!! rein it in a bit! just some snow would be nice!

I agree,

I want cold and snow as much as the next snow lover but I do NOT want a 62/63 style winter. People don't realise just how brutal that winter was, it was not enjoyable. It can be cold and snowy all winter without being as damn harsh as 62/63. That would just cause untold problems for everyone. Id happily take 3 months of snow and -1 rather than days of -15 such as 62/63.

Be very careful what you wish for!

[Alan Medlock Valley]

Let's face it we have more chance of a cold Winter than a hot Summer in this country, over the past 5 years less overall warmth has been the more dominant pattern all year-round. Take what you will from that.

[Letitsnowyorkshire]

I would be happy with anything more than the one snow event we got here in 11/12 , I would happily take a mix of 09/10 and 10/11 but know that is unlikely to happen.

[Andy_]

I'd just like a seasonal Winter, there's nothing worse than a dull rainy day in the middle of winter.

Lot of sunshine and convective snow showers would be nice, bit of thundersnow thrown in for good measure.

Don't particularly need weeks on end of freezing temperatures, we had December 2010 for that It was brilliant, but I was sick by the end of it (then again wouldn't mind it again).

[Suburban Streamer]

I know lots of people didn't enjoy last winter but for me it goes down as a goodun. Two weeks of bitterly cold temps and two very decent snow events in the space of a week in Feb. Also, the crazy cold temps alongwith dewpoints so low that the frost was 'clear' was interesting too, I don't recall seeing that in previous winters, but perhaps i just never took note before. And because of the cold strat, and thanks to some very knowledgeable members on here, i didn't spend the beginning of winter hoping for a snow event that never came like I've done in the past so many times. I guess, for me, the only frustration came when I saw how close we came to something truly epic in Feb, albeit, it was decent enough IMBY

Edited October 11, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

It's been many years since Coventry, where I live, received a large snowfall. Just north and south of us seem to get it! I think early Dec 1990 was the last good one.

Personally seeing the weather go downhill during late November like it did in 2010 would be great for me and a cold and frosty festive season with a few blizzards thrown in. I could cope with a mild Feb after that!

Edited October 11, 2012 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[SnowObsessor90]

I know lots of people didn't enjoy last winter but for me it goes down as a goodun. Two weeks of bitterly cold temps and two very decent snow events in the space of a week in Feb. Also, the crazy cold temps alongwith dewpoints so low that the frost was 'clear' was interesting too, I don't recall seeing that in previous winters, but perhaps i just never took note before. And because of the cold strat, and thanks to some very knowledgeable members on here, i didn't spend the beginning of winter hoping for a snow event that never came like I've done in the past so many times. I guess, for me, the only frustration came when I saw how close we came to something truly epic in Feb, albeit, it was decent enough IMBY

Here in this area of the North west we weren't quite as lucky and had to make do with freezing rain and a few flakes which really amount to anything during that period so obviously you can imagine I wasn't the best pleased.

Edited October 11, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Zakos]

I agree, its all about perspective, the last winter was great for me because I was in the perfect position for snow, I got several inches of it.

whereas in December 2010 was poor for me, my location was always just missed out on the snow, didn't see any snow until the 17th. (living in Wellingborough back then. the extremity of the cold was amazing though.

and I also agree we came very close to something truly special then, we only just missed out on some extreme cold.

I really think this winter will be cold and snowy, it has to be said if we compare the teleconnections to this time last year we are in a much better situation, although things could change and it is perhaps to early to say which way it will go.]

I definitely think there is the potential for a potent cold spell as we enter November, we shall see.

just to clarify, Joe B is NOT a cold ramper, he did not at any point last year say that the UK was going to experience a cold winter. and if I remember correctly accuweather forecarsted a mild winter for western Europe. he really thinks this winter will be a very cold one. this is encouraging, for me at least.

[weather is fun]

Zakos yes joe b is well renound for his cold ramps he was going for cold in the uk last year infact he tweeted something around xmas that the uk would be seeing 15-20cm of snowfall widely only for him then to start back tracking. I think personally alot of us on here are getting ahead of ourselves yes enjoy the ramps etc but just remember this winter could yet dissapoint us all especially if the strat doesnt play ball this winter is far from nailed on to be cold in my opnion.

[DubWeatherAddict]

Nice drop in the AO forecasts ...

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

One of the reasons why I enjoy a prolonged spell of harsh cold and snowy weather so much, is that it brightens everywhere up. The Winter nights don't seem quite so long, somehow - not sure what anyone else thinks!

Considering just how poor last winter was for many, we (IMBY) didn't do too bad, the last few seasons have definitely gone some way to making up for 20 years of near misses and complete and utter agony ! Give us an epic winter and I'll be beside myself

[Suburban Streamer]

just to clarify, Joe B is NOT a cold ramper, he did not at any point last year say that the UK was going to experience a cold winter. and if I remember correctly accuweather forecarsted a mild winter for western Europe. he really thinks this winter will be a very cold one. this is encouraging, for me at least.

I agree that accuweather's winter forecast was good for Europe last year. Tho should also remember it was not so good for the USA

Edited October 11, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[Alikazam]

Joe B's forecasts seem designed to get more subscribers to his new Weatherbell website. What better way than to forecast some extreme weather. More inclined to take his forecasts with a pinch of salt this year.

[Mickp]

This is my first post on here and i am very intereasted in the climate and i really think that with the recent unpresidented melting of polar ice we are very much in uncharted territory, which is very interresting !!!

[Methuselah]

Welcome to NW, Mickp...

[phil nw.]

This is my first post on here and i am very intereasted in the climate and i really think that with the recent unpresidented melting of polar ice we are very much in uncharted territory, which is very interresting !!!

Hi Mick and welcome to the NW forum.

If you pop your location details in your avitar it helps others when discussing weather where you live.

[Mickp]

This is my first post on here and i am very intereasted in the climate and i really think that with the recent unpresidented melting of polar ice we are very much in uncharted territory, which is very interresting !!!

i mean interesting !