November CET Value

[UV-RAY]

Would like to revise my guess to 6.5C please. Average first half, turning much colder and eventually very wintry by the end of the month.

The MetO seem quite bullish regarding colder weather towards the months end.

[Barry12]

Looking like a below average month at present, highly unlikely we will see any mild weather for a while. Still backing my prediction, which will make it the coldest November of the 21st century

[Roger J Smith]

This is how we stand for entries late on the first of Novem-brrrr

November CET means and trivia

15.4 ... ... ... ... ... ... warmest day (5th, 1938)

14.4 ... ... ... ... ... ... warmest day in second half (22nd, 1947)

10.5 ... Craig Evans

10.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... warmest Nov 1994

10.0

9.9 ...

9.8 ...

9.7 ...

9.6 ... ... ... ... ... ... second warmest Nov 2011

9.5 ... ... ... ... ... ... third warmest Nov 1818

9.4 ... ... ... ... ... ... fourth warmest Nov 1938

9.3 ... ... ... ... ... ... fifth warmest Nov 1743

9.2 ... Mark Neal, ihatetherain

9.1 ...

9.0 ...

8.9 ... SnOwFeSt

8.8 ...

8.7 ...

8.6 ...

8.5 ...

8.4 ... Styx

8.3 ...

8.2 ...

8.1 ...

8.0 ...vizzy2004

7.9 ...

7.8 ...

7.7 ...

7.6 .... hedgehog4 ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of 2001-2011 ----

7.5 ...

7.4 ...

7.3 ... Isolated Frost, Milhouse, Roger J Smith

7.2 ... The Pit

7.1 .... AWD, Rybris Ponce, stewfox, Alex, Harve, BlastFromThePast*

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of 1981-2010 ---- ... ...

7.0 ... A Winter's Tale, Ice Day, Aaron, DR Hosking

6.9 ... Kentish Man ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of 1971-2000 ----

6.8 ... Ladyiofthestorm, SteveB. Mr Maunder, shuggee, liam300, Gael_Force, Ninman

6.7 ... Cirrostratus, The watcher, TonyH, davehsug

6.6 .... Polar Gael, Fozfoster, Jack Wales, Don ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of 1961-1990 ----

6.5 .... DiagonalRedLine, Great Plum, feb1991blizzard, Backtrack*

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of 1901-2000 ----

6.4 ... Syed2878, coram, reef

6.3 ... Summer Sun, Ferryhill Weather, 22nov10blast

6.2 ... Stargazer, Sainsbo, summer blizzard, damianslaw, Duncan McAlister, Jackone

6.1 .... virtualsphere, mulzy, AtlanticFlamethrower ... ... ... ... ---- mean of all years 1659-2011 ----

6.0 ... Weather-history, Stu_London

5.9 ....jonboy, AderynCoch, Mark Bayley, Norrance, pj20101, BornFromTheVoid, Seven of Nine*

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of 1801-1900 ----

5.8 ....Snowstorm1, ruzzi (snowboy), Radiating Dendrite ... ... ... ... ---- mean of 1701-1800 ----

5.7 ... sundog, WhiteXmas

5.6 ... Steve Murr, March Blizzard

5.5 ....Stationary Front, Paul T, sebastiaan1973, Polar Maritime ... ... ... ---- mean of 1659-1700 ----

5.4 ... DeepSnow

5.3 ... IBringTheHammer, mullender83

5.2 ...

5.1 ... 4wd, Barry95

5.0 ... Robbie Garrett

4.9 ... Terminal Moraine, BARRY

4.8 ... godber

4.1 .... ... ... ... ... coldest in recent years (tied 28th overall) 1985

2.9 .... ... ... ... ... third coldest Nov 1807

2.8 .... ... ... ... ... second coldest Nov 1915

2.3 .... ... ... ... ... coldest Nov 1782

-0.6 ... ... ... ... ... earliest sub-zero mean (7th, 1791)

-2.1 ... ... ... ... ... coldest in first half (15th, 1965)

-4.6 ... ... ... ... ... coldest day (23rd, 1890)

__________________________________________________

* one day late

So far, 85 entries and the median is 6.4 C

daily records are for the period 1772 to 2011

monthly extreme values are for the period 1659 to 2011

Just a note, my 1981-2010 mean is 7.1 from rounding, I have seen it at 7.2 ... it was something like 7.148 hence the two ways of rounding ...

[Stu_London]

5.7C to the 1st

[Weather-history]

5.8C up to the 3rd.

[Stu_London]

looks like we will have the coldest 1st week of November since 1988 (if we get lower than 2006 value of 5.9C, which we should do).

Lets hope it's not a pre-cursor for a 1988-1989 type winter which averaged 6.5C (comfortably above Nov 1988's value of 5.2C)

[damianslaw]

looks like we will have the coldest 1st week of November since 1988 (if we get lower than 2006 value of 5.9C, which we should do).

Lets hope it's not a pre-cursor for a 1988-1989 type winter which averaged 6.5C (comfortably above Nov 1988's value of 5.2C)

Mmmm the winters of 88/89 and 06/07 were very mild indeed. Lets hope its not a bad omen for the winter, however the difference with the start to this Nov compared to those of 88 and 06, is not a cold period caused by high pressure, but unusually low pressure. Recent cold winters such as 09/10 and 10/11 came on the back of very mild starts to November. Going further back winters 95/96 and 05/06 also saw very mild starts to November...

As I said though this November has started off unusually cold and unsettled with low pressure dominant.. can't remember the last Nov to start with similiar synoptics...

I like November to be a month that cools down significantly from start to finish like 2005, 2008 and 2010. The last 10 days of Nov on average are much colder than the first 10 days.. but as we saw in 2006 this isn't always the case. Nov 88 was cold throughout with a notable cold period mid month, it was quite an unusual month synoptic wise. Of the recent Novembers, whilst late Nov 10 was superb, for me the most interesting was Nov 05 which saw a month of two completely contrasting halves, seeing high pressure suddenly develop on and around the 12/13th after a relentlessly dull very mild benign spell of southerlies, was great and the second half of the month saw high pressure and northerlies dominate with lots of fog and frost and some snowfall.

Nov 93 was also a great month, a proper full on easterly in late Nov is very difficult to achieve. Nov 85 was also a superb month for wintry synoptics.. and Nov 96 had its moments.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes, i do vaguely remember a covering of snow in Nov 88, although could not tell you which week it was, we ended up with such a dyer winter, that said though, synoptically it may have been the the worst of all time, 91-92 may have been similar, however the worst winter purely from a snowfall point of view for me (midlands then) was 92-93, 07-08 may have topped it and believe it or not 08-09 (both Salford / Manc CC).

[Stu_London]

I'd fancy the chances of a sub 5C November if the 18z was to verify. Cold to average 1st third, then Northerly then lots of surface cold under high pressure. All goes a bit southerly later in the run but as it's +300, I won't worry too much. Would certainly deliver a 1st half of the month under 5C.

Cold Novembers were very prominent in the era of the Dalton Minimum and also right from the start of the period, where they were if anything more prevelent than frigid winter months. In fact there was a period between 1795 and 1803 where every November was between 4.5C and 5.6C. A lot of the winter months during this period were fairly cold, but there were some very mild ones too. Makes me wonder if the main solar driver is jet stream positioning - which if driven south, would promote coldish weather in Autumn, but might result in mildish winter months if staying strong, resulting in zonal weather.

[Stu_London]

5.2C to the 4th

Last night came in at 0.9C, so another drop today is likely.

It is quite possible that the 6th of the month will be the day will be the low point for the CET for the month, unless the last 3rd of the month throws us some suprises.

[Stu_London]

5.1 to the 5th.

Today might be the last drop for a while (if we register a drop today).

Thereafter a slow rise. Nothing too mild for 6 or 7 days, so don't expect big jumps - perhaps 0.1C or so per day.

Mixed signals for the 2nd half of the month. If I had to pin the tail on the donkey now for the whole month, it would be be somewhere between 6C and 7C, so still a decent chance of below average against some if not all measures.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Mixed signals for the 2nd half of the month. If I had to pin the tail on the donkey now for the whole month, it would be be somewhere between 6C and 7C, so still a decent chance of below average against some if not all measures.

Yeah 6C-7C sounds very reasonable. As much as I would love for November 2012 to be below 6C or even 5C we must be realistic with expectations. Post 1998 only 2 Novembers have failed to reach 7C for the final CET which were Novembers 2005 and 2010 and both of those Novembers had unbelievable switcharounds of the highest magnitude and stretching the statistical probability of such CET crashes in one month even for cooling months. Edited November 7, 2012 by Craig Evans

[BornFromTheVoid]

5.2C to the 6th

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was 5.7C. Today's minimum is 3.6C, while maxima were close to 11C, so an increase to around 5.6C is likely tomorrow.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET around

6.1C to the 8th (9.7)

6.4C to the 9th (8.6)

6.5C to the 10th (7.5)

6.5C to the 11th (6.3)

6.6C to the 12th (8.2)

6.9C to the 13th (10.0)

6.9C to the 14th (7.5)

[Paul T]

Looking at the potential from the synoptics from the 19th, it could turn quite a bit colder for the final 1/3 of Nov.

They aren't showing too much now, but i know my models and i think a NE'rly is on its way....

[Milhouse]

5.5C to 7th

Is the anomaly correct though? I have the 1961-90 mean for November at 6.5C, not 7.9C as the Hadley site infers (a -2.4C anomaly).

7.9c is likely to be the average value up to the 7th when looking at the 61-90 period. That is what the anomaly refers to. Its the difference between the current CET and the average CET up to that point in the month. At the end of the month that is when it will be compared to the overall 61-90 mean for the month.

[summer blizzard]

5.9C to the 8th.

[Stu_London]

6.2C to the 9th

in the upcoming week the 13th looks particularly mild, thereafter we get a slight continental drift and things cool back down again.

6.7C or thereabouts looks a likely figure for mid month (still below average for the period to the 15th). Early FI looks mild and late FI hints at something colder - the 2 might balance each other out, so mid 6s still looks a decent bet to me.

[Don]

6.2C to the 9th

in the upcoming week the 13th looks particularly mild, thereafter we get a slight continental drift and things cool back down again.

6.7C or thereabouts looks a likely figure for mid month (still below average for the period to the 15th). Early FI looks mild and late FI hints at something colder - the 2 might balance each other out, so mid 6s still looks a decent bet to me.

My guess of 6.6C is looking pretty good at the moment. Still a long way to go though.....

[The PIT]

Sadly nothing really cold in the offering just the odd day below normal as against that nothing tremdously mild either for any long period. So a slow rise to continue and a rather uneventful month.

[DR Hosking]

6.3c to 11th

[4wd]

5.4C here, it will edge up this week I expect.

[Stu_London]

CET is 6.5 to the 12th.

A couple of mild days (and nights) to come so we might see 7.0C by the 14th, but thereafter we might see some gentle downward pressure on the CET.

Models struggling to settle on a pattern so very difficult to predict with too much confidence, but I still favour mid 6s. The risks to the downside of the that would appear a little highter than those to the upside

[damianslaw]

Nearing the half way stage and whilst we are now seeing much milder conditions thanks to the cold start to the month the CET value by the 20th will probably be high 6's, near average. Thereafter very hard to call which way it might go, if we do see a much colder end to the month then we should end up in the 5's, but the betting man would be safe to make a stake on a finish in the 6's, probably lower 6's than upper 6's, so a good chance of another below average CET month but only just I would say at this range.

[DR Hosking]

6.8c to 13th

[Stu_London]

In the space of 24 hours, the medium term outlook has taken something of a turn for the milder. The drift from the continent has gone and any cold spell for the last week that might have been trending looks to be on hold somewhat.

Although things could shoft back, perhaps those with guesses in the early to mid 7s might now be best placed.