November CET Value

[Milhouse]

7.1c to the 14th.

[Roger J Smith]

Up and up and up it goes,

where it stops

nobody knows

as it rises to the heavens

no one's thrilled except Craig Evans ...

[Stu_London]

Up and up and up it goes,

where it stops

nobody knows

as it rises to the heavens

no one's thrilled except Craig Evans ...

We might actually shed a couple of tenths over the next 3-4 days - then it looks mildish again for a couple of days.

If 18z FI were to verify we could see a bit of a fall in the last week as we would be on the cold side of the high. In fact any MLB that settles over us would probably be cool regardless of uppers as inversion scenarios would inevitably set up.

[DR Hosking]

_{7.2C to the 15th}

[Barry12]

We need a cold end to November if it's going to be anywhere near my prediction of 5.1

although it will never get as high as 10C+

[Relativistic]

We need a cold end to November if it's going to be anywhere near my prediction of 5.1

although it will never get as high as 10C+

I'd say my 6.3C ain't looking too shabby...

[Methuselah]

I'd say my 6.3C ain't looking too shabby...

My 7.1's not looking as ridiculous as it was earlier, either...

[summer blizzard]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

7.2C to the 16th.

Modelling is at odds right now however most runs seem to indicate high pressure influencing the UK and as such with the potential for an inversion i would say that below 7C should be odds on.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 5.0C, while maxima are around 10C, so remaining at 7.2C tomorrow.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

7.1C to the 18th (4.8]

7.1C to the 19th (7.0)

7.3C to the 20th (11.3)

7.3C to the 21st (9.0)

7.5C to the 22nd (9.9)

7.4C to the 23rd (5.5)

7.3C to the 24th (5.8]

With all signs of significant cold remaining well into FI, a finish around 7C looks most likely now.

[Milhouse]

The minimum today is 5.0C, while maxima are around 10C, so remaining at 7.2C tomorrow.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

7.1C to the 18th (4.8]

7.1C to the 19th (7.0)

7.3C to the 20th (11.3)

7.3C to the 21st (9.0)

7.5C to the 22nd (9.9)

7.4C to the 23rd (5.5)

7.3C to the 24th (5.8]

With all signs of significant cold remaining well into FI, a finish around 7C looks most likely now.

Good news!

The closer to my guess of 7.3c the better.

Edited November 17, 2012 by Milhouse

[The PIT]

Plenty of mild weather this week while GFS shows a cool down afterwards. Perhaps my 7.2C guess won't to be bad.

[VillagePlank]

My 8.26C looks a little high, now

[Stu_London]

7.0C to the 18th.

I would say we look like sticking around this value (slight rise followed by a slight fall) with a slight cooloff possible in the last couple of days of the month.

Be suprised if the final figure is higher than 7.0 or lower than 6.5

[Mark Neal.]

Looks like my guess of 9.2c was just a little bit to high. I was expecting a really mild month as you could guess from prediction.

[Snowstorm1]

My 5.8c prediction currently looks a little too low hoping the last few days of the month can drag it down as much as possible!

[summer blizzard]

7.0C to the 18th.

I would say we look like sticking around this value (slight rise followed by a slight fall) with a slight cooloff possible in the last couple of days of the month.

Be suprised if the final figure is higher than 7.0 or lower than 6.5

I'm a little more bullish in that for the first time in days two models are in agreement at day 7-10 (ECWMF and GEM). These models indicate downward pressure from the 25th onward and would probably have us below 6.5C by months end so 6.2C or below would be a possibility after adjustments (another month 1C or more below the 1981-2010 average).

[virtualsphere]

My 8.26C looks a little high, now

As your forecast method produces a trend using a series, when you have the final November CET could you add this to your dataset to generate predictions for Dec, Jan & Feb based on the trend?

[Backtrack]

My guess of 6.5C looks perfectly possible, especially with a little colder weather on the horizon.

[DR Hosking]

7.0c to 19th

[Stu_London]

I'm a little more bullish in that for the first time in days two models are in agreement at day 7-10 (ECWMF and GEM). These models indicate downward pressure from the 25th onward and would probably have us below 6.5C by months end so 6.2C or below would be a possibility after adjustments (another month 1C or more below the 1981-2010 average).

Models looking a bit colder today, but probably as cold as they are going to get in a mobile flow in late November.

Based on the 12z GFS, I would be lowering my expectations to between 6.1C and 6.6C, although the next couple of days will see rises (back to 7.3C possibly).

[summer blizzard]

Models looking a bit colder today, but probably as cold as they are going to get in a mobile flow in late November.

Based on the 12z GFS, I would be lowering my expectations to between 6.1C and 6.6C, although the next couple of days will see rises (back to 7.3C possibly).

Yes, the main danger i suspect would be minima given the cyclonic moist flow from the continent though maxima should be very suppressed thus comfortable downward trends.

What were the daily means before the cold air arrived on the 24th in 2010? The setup looks similar..

[Relativistic]

Come on 6.3C!!

[Roger J Smith]

The downward slide of the monthly CET in Nov 2010 was as folllows:

1-20 ... 7.4 C

1-22 ... 7.2 C

1-24 ... 6.9 C

1-26 ... 6.3 C

1-28 ... 5.7 C

1-30 ... 5.2 C

That was a paradigm shift.

[summer blizzard]

The downward slide of the monthly CET in Nov 2010 was as folllows:

1-20 ... 7.4 C

1-22 ... 7.2 C

1-24 ... 6.9 C

1-26 ... 6.3 C

1-28 ... 5.7 C

1-30 ... 5.2 C

That was a paradigm shift.

Wow, do you have the actual daily means?

[Weather-history]

Wow, do you have the actual daily means?

One of the days had a mean of -4.0C