Winter 2012/13 - Chat

[liam300]

IMO i think it will be colder but not exceptionally cold, especially for myself on the south coast. Today has not produced the best of charts with the low NE of us, although the building blocks are certainly there. There isn't much correlation between all of the charts which is positive, fingers crossed the blocking will hold out for long enough.

Hate the high pressure around the Azores that could stop it pushing across the UK.

Edited November 22, 2012 by liam300

[feb1991blizzard]

This video was taken on 1st December 2010, not sure by who but the start of it is just round the corner from here and was just the start of what was to come. So if we get as much next week as in the video then I would settle for that

I take it that was the very late Nov fall, around midnight - 3 am, we got 6 inches from that!

[feb1991blizzard]

charts may be exciting to view right now, but you go out next week on the street and walk in that raw cold wind, you will soon hate it

the 850's are not cold enough for snow, so next week will be a nuisance. give me mild zonal any day over crap dry, cloudy, raw easterlies

its easy to sit in your nice warm house and look at the charts for next week and say at least we don't have zonal crap, but you go out in that raw weather next week, its horrid

I prefer it to mild gunk, i hate mild weather, thing is that you end up wearing a coat just because its the time of year but in my case, i end up regretting it and getting all sweaty, even at about 9c!

[Ruzzi]

I didnt know where the suitable topic to post this but i have agreed here as there's alot following this topic and my question(s):

What in term of snow depth was better December/January 2009/10 or Nov/Dec 2010?

And also does anyone know what the Central Belt (Glasgow Area) received in both years, i have feeling 2010 was better but not 2 sure.

Thanks.

I live just outside shotts and harthill and in december/january 2009/2010 there was a very decent amount of snow, reaching well over a foot and a half at times however it was the longevity of this spell that was so notable for me, there was snow on the ground for 6 weeks here starting from mid december. I do recall attempting to walk home on new years morning knee deep in snow and temperatures of -13C.

November/ december 2010 was much better in terms of snow depth but only last about 4 weeks in comparison. The beasterly set up at the perfect angle creating a forth - clyde streamer (as at the time the north sea was still relatively warm with very cold uppers for the time of year) and we had 5 days solid of almost constant snow showers starting around about the 28th of november. Snow depths by the 4th of december in my back garden reached 2 and a half feet level and as soon I stepped outside I was waist deep.... and then the fun and games of the 6th of december began and heaped on more snow and at the time, misery to thousands across the central belt.

I'd love to see a real pasting again in the next few weeks, just at least one memorable monster snowfall like late febuary 2001 when we got 55cm of level snow overnight with drifts going over the rooftops of bungalows!!

BRING IT ON......

[Snowy Easterlies]

I prefer it to mild gunk, i hate mild weather, thing is that you end up wearing a coat just because its the time of year but in my case, i end up regretting it and getting all sweaty, even at about 9c!

that is true actually, today it was 11c but i had the window open, when it was 11c in june i had a jumper on and felt chilly, funny how our body adapts to weather

i suspect i will feel cold next week even if temps are about 7c because of the wind

[Alan Medlock Valley]

I take it that was the very late Nov fall, around midnight - 3 am, we got 6 inches from that!

I think so, although they state it as 1st December, best part of that vid I like is between 35 and 45 secs, looks like a postcard.

[feb1991blizzard]

I think so, although they state it as 1st December, best part of that vid I like is between 35 and 45 secs, looks like a postcard.

Yes great vid, if you have anymore, especially from around Oldham and Eastwards, great to see them, meanwhile somebody just had me worried on the model thread, saying that there were loads of ensemble members on the GEFS suite that want to break down the blocking, i have been through them and not one does it in low res, and very few even threaten the slightest hint of it!

[feb1991blizzard]

that is true actually, today it was 11c but i had the window open, when it was 11c in june i had a jumper on and felt chilly, funny how our body adapts to weather

i suspect i will feel cold next week even if temps are about 7c because of the wind

Yes, i remember in jan 2010 it was actually snowing and just above freezing, i felt too hot because i had a really thick coat on, the reason is because all december i had been used to temperatures downward of -8c and really early in the morning -15c, if tommorow was 1c it would feel

cold.

PS have you seen snowkings post in the model thread?.

Edited November 22, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Snowy Easterlies]

yeah how does he have access to the ECM control run ?

[feb1991blizzard]

yeah how does he have access to the ECM control run ?

He must have a subscription, you can subscribe to ECMWF for the full model dataset, its usually for commercial purposes though so its very expensive, JH said you would be looking at a 4 figure sum.

[Alan Medlock Valley]

Yes great vid, if you have anymore, especially from around Oldham and Eastwards, great to see them, meanwhile somebody just had me worried on the model thread, saying that there were loads of ensemble members on the GEFS suite that want to break down the blocking, i have been through them and not one does it in low res, and very few even threaten the slightest hint of it!

Excellent, let's hope it stays that way

[feb1991blizzard]

Excellent, let's hope it stays that way

I might be wrong but its the best suite so far from what i can see, mean of -4 850hpa for a huge chunk of the run and when you consider the lack of cold pooling near to us, that weights the h500 charts even more towards blocking, a snowflake value on every frame until the end of the suite, ok we need to see them around 55 to 60 % before somethings nailed but you wont see that until nearer the timeframe because of the resolution and the butterfly effect of modelling in FI anyway.

[Alan Medlock Valley]

I might be wrong but its the best suite so far from what i can see, mean of -4 850hpa for a huge chunk of the run and when you consider the lack of cold pooling near to us, that weights the h500 charts even more towards blocking, a snowflake value on every frame until the end of the suite, ok we need to see them around 55 to 60 % before somethings nailed but you wont see that until nearer the timeframe because of the resolution and the butterfly effect of modelling in FI anyway.

I guess you mean this one? http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=250&ext=1&y=51&run=18&runpara=0

Absolute corker!

[feb1991blizzard]

I guess you mean this one? http://modeles.meteo...un=18&runpara=0

Absolute corker!

Thats the best of them yes, lets hpe we see a load of them flatlining at -10 by the end of the weekend.

[AWD]

From Big Joe;

euro weeklies are even colder in week 3 than week 2, then back off. Severe neg Nao, looks like 09/10 blend New CFSV2 http://t.co/Rtq9zNNi

have 1st 2 weeks will rival cold of Dec10 in UK. Pattern amazingly close temps will look similar to this http://t.co/1r8K5mEd

Edited November 23, 2012 by AWD

[Methuselah]

So Joe B gets his forecasts via the CFS, eh? That would explain a lot...

[throwoff]

Netweather itself giving 95% chance of snow in Gillingham on 01/12/2012

[Wadey]

When does the winter forcast come out ? And how come the long range forcast hasn't been updated ?

[WillinGlossop]

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/14days.asp

I know it is soley based on the gfs 06z run but this forecast for faversham in kent i wouldnt say no to.....

[WhiteFox]

that is true actually, today it was 11c but i had the window open, when it was 11c in june i had a jumper on and felt chilly, funny how our body adapts to weather

i suspect i will feel cold next week even if temps are about 7c because of the wind

As Dostoevsky wrote in The Brothers Karamazov "...-2 in November feels much colder than -10 in February..." of course, it is set in Western Russia, so -10 in February would feel relatively warm for them, but the sentiment is correct...

[Eskimo]

Simon Keelings thoughts on next week and beyond.

Netweather itself giving 95% chance of snow in Gillingham on 01/12/2012

Remember that doesn't mean you are 95% likely to see snow, it means that if the models are correct and snow does fall, its 95% likely to be snow...the other 5% could be sleet or rain.

[throwoff]

The other 5% will be more snow

Everything seems to be coming together, 384 still looks pretty strong for very cold temps from around the 1st

[weather is fun]

So big joe b is going for deep freeze december. Yet his buddy piers corbyn thinking the uk will be spared this cold outbreak. Very intresting times ahead. Think if piers ends up been correct he will certainly be one of the best out there. Because with all the ramping going on at the minute he is the only one who seems to think it will end up mild. Only time will tell i guess.

[Blairo]

Let's hope Piers is wrong then

[Eskimo]

Let's hope Piers is wrong then

When is he ever right?