Winter 2012/13 - Chat

[West Sussex Kate]

Our weather has been messing about all year.

The driest winter

Wettest summer

And then all the floods this autumn!

I think maybe something extreme will happen this winter.

[syed2878]

i agree with that lets hope something extreme does comes about with out risk to any lives. I agree with u snowy easterly charts at 180h doesnt get me exciting ither, even some of the charts in the reliable time frame can fail too. So unless charts r in 72-96h time frame i don't get excited.

[jessandjon]

Three days in a row I have seen bits in news papers about a big freeze today it is the sun

[AWD]

Saturday night looks very chilly indeed;

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2012/11/29/basis00/ukuk/tmin/12120206_2_2900.gif

Think ill be taking the dog for a walk early Sunday morning. Should be some lovely seasonal conditions in the countryside.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Three days in a row I have seen bits in news papers about a big freeze today it is the sun

Not seen GFS 00Z then, 'bout time these papers stopped putting untrue misleading information

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Not seen GFS 00Z then, 'bout time these papers stopped putting untrue misleading information

Well not really because if they had watched the winter forecast by gp they could well be justified in what they have just said , they will always hype things up but if I have ever listened to a ramp by gp , then the video was that, along with his posts of late .

I think you sound misleading making out the latest gfs is a going to be right when in fact , it goes against every signal out.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Hope to see GP's forecast tonight, when internet gets improved, cant watch videos very easily right now

[Gibby]

For those interested I have placed my own Winter Forecast in my website under the link below.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/page6.htm

Go easy it's my first ever and has been produced studying much cross matching past records and the charts available on the Web. My head's on the block my the 13,000 inhabitants of Midsomer Norton and Radtsock and surrounding areas so I hope I am fairly near the mark.

[Mark Neal.]

For those interested I have placed my own Winter Forecast in my website under the link below.

http://www.norton-ra...co.uk/page6.htm

Go easy it's my first ever and has been produced studying much cross matching past records and the charts available on the Web. My head's on the block my the 13,000 inhabitants of Midsomer Norton and Radtsock and surrounding areas so I hope I am fairly near the mark.

Nice Effort! Wouldn't disagree with what you have said, seems rather plausible considering output i have seen and other pointers so far.

[Bethany C]

Hi everyone, new on here.

Like the post above mentioning December 1981, it was similar to 2010, very cold with lots of Snow events but followed by a milder second half to winter.

The winters back in the 70s and 80s that had long major Snow events never really got going until after Christmas.

This is something I always look for now days.

Hi and welcome to the forum As this was two pages back you might have been asked this but could you please put your location on the side Have fun and enjoy the rollercoaster.

[UV-RAY]

Time to take a break from model watching for the time being as I can't see any deep cold until mid December onwards, cold rain and transient snow events don't really cut it for me. Mind you today is gorgeous, temp 0.6 c, blue skies and a frosty landscape, I'll be more than happy if it was to stay like this for the next week or two.

[syed2878]

hey gibby like the w.forecast. Good forecast mor realstick. Although gp has done really well over the last few winters, i hope his forecast for this winter comes off.

[AWD]

This is a good post to read, giving the Meto view on events during the next couple of weeks;

Rain, Some hill snow on the leading edge above 400m from the N Midlands northwards. Subsequent showers Monday PM again with snow 400m+ and some sleet/hail to low-levels. There's never been any suggestion of this event bringing a snow-bearing prospect in any meaningful sense, at least for southern districts. UKMO currently considering warning status for parts of SW regarding rainfall. Cornwall especially prone, for example. Longer MR broadly cyclonic and rather cold into 6-10d period; hints of drier thereafter with more hints of W'rly bias in analysis of prevailing Lamb types (still fairly cold however; as UKMO says (abstracted version here of more detailed summary) for nearer-term MR:

"EC ens becomes less cyclonic at the end of next week (day 10) and this improvement is especially evident towards the end of the trend period. There is even some evidence of ridging in the south, but further support is needed here. MOGREPS continues a rather unsettled theme at this time, as does GFS, but there is at least a tend emerging... A closer inspection of clusters still suggests blocking is a possibility with the long wave trough more likely over the UK, particularly in the trend period with occasional cold N’ly outbreaks interspersed with periods of mobility. Note in the upper air means the idea for south shifted flow (see fig 1 below). It is a rather cold type, with 850 HPa WBPT around 2C in northern Scotland and 4 to 6C over southern England, and the 528 DAM 500 HPa thickness remains fairly close throughout. EC Op and control are a good fit to a strong central cluster on latest plumes and considered a good guide to broad trends in the 6-10 day period....into 10-15d trend period, still uncertain.... ENS still suggest a cyclonic bias with cyclonic-centred the most probable. While still quite a spread of wind directions on lamb types there is perhaps more of a westerly bias than recently. So the most likely scenario is for a spell of unsettled, often cold weather. Snow probable at times, particularly over high ground in the north. Some milder spells of weather are possible mainly in the S/SW, and there is a hint of drier conditions later in this period."

Courtesy of Ian Fergusson, posted in the SW regional thread.

[cheeky_monkey]

This is a good post to read, giving the Meto view on events during the next couple of weeks;

Rain, Some hill snow on the leading edge above 400m from the N Midlands northwards. Subsequent showers Monday PM again with snow 400m+ and some sleet/hail to low-levels. There's never been any suggestion of this event bringing a snow-bearing prospect in any meaningful sense, at least for southern districts. UKMO currently considering warning status for parts of SW regarding rainfall. Cornwall especially prone, for example. Longer MR broadly cyclonic and rather cold into 6-10d period; hints of drier thereafter with more hints of W'rly bias in analysis of prevailing Lamb types (still fairly cold however; as UKMO says (abstracted version here of more detailed summary) for nearer-term MR:

"EC ens becomes less cyclonic at the end of next week (day 10) and this improvement is especially evident towards the end of the trend period. There is even some evidence of ridging in the south, but further support is needed here. MOGREPS continues a rather unsettled theme at this time, as does GFS, but there is at least a tend emerging... A closer inspection of clusters still suggests blocking is a possibility with the long wave trough more likely over the UK, particularly in the trend period with occasional cold N’ly outbreaks interspersed with periods of mobility. Note in the upper air means the idea for south shifted flow (see fig 1 below). It is a rather cold type, with 850 HPa WBPT around 2C in northern Scotland and 4 to 6C over southern England, and the 528 DAM 500 HPa thickness remains fairly close throughout. EC Op and control are a good fit to a strong central cluster on latest plumes and considered a good guide to broad trends in the 6-10 day period....into 10-15d trend period, still uncertain.... ENS still suggest a cyclonic bias with cyclonic-centred the most probable. While still quite a spread of wind directions on lamb types there is perhaps more of a westerly bias than recently. So the most likely scenario is for a spell of unsettled, often cold weather. Snow probable at times, particularly over high ground in the north. Some milder spells of weather are possible mainly in the S/SW, and there is a hint of drier conditions later in this period."

Courtesy of Ian Fergusson, posted in the SW regional thread.

sounds a little bit like December 1993

[on the coast]

The latest Met Office forecast from Ian sounds about right. Love reading how cold is coming our way from certain experienced poster's but the Met Office know their stuff. Cool and damp apart from high ground northwards for at least 10 days?

Edited November 29, 2012 by on the coast

[mrsmall]

Interesting conversation between Liam dutton and matt Hugo.

[Hotspur62]

Looks like the coldness that started today will hang around till Sunday and then milder,wet and windy weather comes back for Monday.I thought a couple of days ago that there might be a "battleground" with Atlantic and cold air we had in place but looks like that apart from Higher elevations from Northern England northwards, we are just going to get more rain which is not what SW England and Wales need.Still, remain positive that we will have colder than normal winter which seems to be general concensus but will need to wait maybe another 10-14 days before things get interesting for snow lovers.

IN the meantime,think we will have 3 pleasent days with frost and cold winter sun which suits me just fine.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

That 18Z , well suppose I cant complain with my username, not a drop of rain after tuesday

but certainly no snow for south showing on that 18Z, high dominating

[jessandjon]

Those poor elderly people who are going to read the daily express talk about a scar mongering headline!

[AWD]

Cold & frosty this morning with the sun starting to rise above the houses.

Lovely winters morning.

Temperature currently -0.9c

[TAFKAP]

Wonderful bright and frosty morning. My perfect winter is bright icy weather like this with some nice outbreaks of snow thrown in. I really hope we get plenty of days like this in December to help dry the ground out and help the folks who've suffered so much from the floods.

[Lynxus]

Technically I have had snow in November 2012 now!!!

Think I had a small flurry overnight heheh

[Mark Neal.]

Technically I have had snow in November 2012 now!!!

Think I had a small flurry overnight heheh

Very lucky, a dusting a day before winter begins

[TAFKAP]

There is no reason for negativity at the moment. Check out the latest ensembles, below average all the way with some nice cold options in the mix. And remember winter's coldest conditions tend to occur after the solstice due to seasonal lag. Building cold at the end of november and start of december is a very positive sign. I suspect most of the most negative posters here are too young to remember the mild mucky horrors of the even larger teapot. If they truly remembered winters which were a mere extension of autumn then they'd be a lot more positive.

[mpkio2]

Good morning everyone.

New to the site and hoping for a cold winter.

Well it seems as though we are in a real cold snap at the moment huh? (Which I and many others on this site are happy for. lol) Temps between 0c - 2c nationwide at the monet feeling crsip and cold. I actually woke up early just to walk the cold 0c London streets with clear blue skies and the sun rising from the horizon wearing my winter coat and hat.

I think we should all be happy that we've got such conditions and temps currently 9I shiver thinking back to last winter and how we all glared at the GFS model output of zonal mild muck - Winter shouldn't have temps of 16c!!). I say enjoy it while it lasts - go out, enjoy it cause it seems some more milder temps are coming in on Monday.

I hope you all make me feel welcome.

Warp up warm.

~mpkio2~