December CET (2012/13 Competition)

[Interitus]

It's stated on the meto CET page - Note that anomalies quoted here are w.r.t. the period 1961-1990. This is the current standard period of reference for climatological data as recommended by the WMO (World Met. Organisation).

[Milhouse]

Looking on the Met office CET site we currently have a CET of 3.1 which is -1.7 below normal - http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

The Anomaly at the moment which is -1.7 is the difference in the current CET up to the 18th and the 1961-90 average up to the 18th. 4.8c is the average CET value up to the 18th of all Decembers in the 61-90 period.

[DR Hosking]

3.2c to the 19th

[Mark Bayley]

Going by the ECM the mildest days should be this weekend. There after it looks mostly average to slightly below (in any cooler interludes) which i feel should ensure that we at least get a below/slightly below average month

Should ensure a year below the 71-2000 average, but not the 61-1990 average, and an annual C.E.T between 9.6c and 9.7c

Edited December 20, 2012 by Mark Bayley

[DR Hosking]

3.4c to 20th

[The PIT]

Should rise rapidly this weekend with double figures by day and by night on Saturday before dropping back towards normal on Monday. After that a possible slight downward pressure once again. Possible end figure between 3.5C - 4c if we get the normal downward adjustment.

[BornFromTheVoid]

3.5C to the 21st

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was 6.5C. Today's minimum is 4.4C while maxima are above 12C, so an increase to 3.8C seems likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

4.1C to the 23rd (10.7)

4.2C to the 24th (7.8]

4.4C to the 25th (8.3)

4.4C to the 26th (5.6)

4.4C to the 27th (4.4)

4.4C to the 28th (4.6)

4.6C to the 29th (9.4)

Something between 4.5 and 5.0C the likely finish I'd say. Basically very close to average.

Edited December 22, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[Guest pjl20101]

3.8 to the 22nd.

[The PIT]

A slightly milder outlook now and I'm beginning to suspect here for Sheffield we will end up above normal.

[BornFromTheVoid]

4.0C to the 23rd

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Don]

4.0C to the 23rd

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

4.0C to the 23rd

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

High 4's to low 5's the best bet as a final figure after adjustments for the month?

Edited December 24, 2012 by Don

[BornFromTheVoid]

I doubt we'll climb above 5C. Judging by the 06z GFS we'd be around 4.7C by the end of the month, which could well drop to 4.6 or 4.5C after corrections.

[Roger J Smith]

Smith's second law of downward corrections states that they are always inversely proportional to how much they can help me.

I hope for astounding warmth then the downward correction sitting on 5.0 (as well as 4.9 and 5.1 as it turns out).

[summer blizzard]

It's a shame that i second guessed myself. I went for 3.6C fairly early on but a review of my method suggested 4.1C as what i should go for but then i chose to ignore that because of the outlook at the time. Whilst still too low would have been reasonably close.

[Roger J Smith]

I don't get the two-star rating for this thread, surely that's actually for the month?

[Summer Sun]

up to 4.2 now to the 24th

[North-Easterly Blast]

Decembers whose second half had a higher CET value than the first half since World War 2:

1945, 1947, 1949, 1951, 1952, 1954, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1966, 1967, 1971, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1980, 1982, 1983, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1997, 2002, 2008, 2011, 2012.

2012 joins the above list, and will be quite possibly one of the largest increases in CET from the first half to second half of December that we have had. I think that certain years will have turned out with a larger increase from the first half to second half than 2012, but there certainly won't have been many Decembers where the second half was 4*C or more warmer than the first half which looks likely for this month of Dec 2012.

Dec 2012 has definitely been what you would call a pear shaped winter month, very much like last February was. Feb 2012 looked as though it could turn into a cold month, possibly well below average, but the second half was then very mild with scarcely any frost after around the 13th. Dec 2012 has then followed the same pattern, it was looking like being a cold month, but it turned very mild with almost no frost after the 14th.

Edited December 27, 2012 by North-Easterly Blast

[Isolated Frost]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

4.3c to the 26th.

Landing range of about 4.6c to 4.9c before corrections. With the similar start, but cooler finish, dominated by polar maritime air, I dare say Scotland will finish off cooler than the average, by a considerable margin.

[The PIT]

Next few days should do a bit of damage with double figures day and night in the CET zone before temps fall back to normal by day and above by night on Sunday.

[Isolated Frost]

4.4c to the 27th.

[Froze were the Days]

A lot of people called far to low even my relatively mild 4.3 has now been surpassed. I reckon just shy of 5 will be nearer the mark.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Today's min is 3.2C, while maxima will be close to 12C, so a jump tomorrow to 4.5C is likely.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

4.7C to the 29th (9.9)

4.8C to the 30th (5.6)

4.9C to the 31st (8.5)

Doubt we'll hit 5C by the 31st.

4.7C or 4.8C after corrections is likely imo.

[Methuselah]

A lot of people called far to low even my relatively mild 4.3 has now been surpassed. I reckon just shy of 5 will be nearer the mark.

And my 4.4 (which I'd feared might be more than 2C too high!) will be gone come tomorrow!

Edited December 28, 2012 by Rybris Ponce

[damianslaw]

December 2012 will very much go down as a month of two halves, similiar in characteristics to Dec 2002 which saw a relatively cold first half offset by a very mild second half, and also Dec 2011 which saw an average start offset by a very mild last third. Normally the second half of December is on average colder than the first half, it seems this December has been the wrong way round, with the atlantic zonal train coming much later than normal, usually the first 12 days of Dec bring the most unsettled atlantic dominated period of the year.. unfortunately the most unsettled mild zonal atlantic spell of preety much the whole of 2012 decided to arrive just in time for christmas...

My CET predictions this year have been woeful, must do better in 2013!

[Summer Sun]

4.7 to the 29th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html