December CET (2012/13 Competition)

[bluearmy]

I've a feeling that the upcoming warmer nights (3-6C) might cause quite a jump in the overall CET value?

going to depend on wind strength i think RP. if we end up beneath the disrupting trough more than not, nights could well be quite chilly under clearing skies.

[damianslaw]

Today was a very cold day in the CET zone, sub zero in many parts of the country. Uppers over the weekend won't be particularly high which will help keep the CET down and in any clearer breaks a touch of frost is very likely - though the winds may put pay to that. Average temperatures at best are forecast from Friday onwards, mind we normally see a colder period of weather in the run up christmas around the 18-21st.. even in very mild Decembers, mind not always, 2008 was a classic example of a colder first half followed by a very mild run up to christmas before a colder period - this year has reminded me so much of 2008... give me a colder second half to december than a first half any day..

[DR Hosking]

2.5c to 12th

[Stu_London]

My take on the next few days - although much milder than recently, never really getting into the very mild category.

14th - 2.1C

16th - 2.6C

18th - 2.8C

20th - 3.1C

If these are accurate, we would need to achieve 7.6C in the last 11 days to get to the 61-90 average . Probably not many years that this has happened. To be 1C below the 61-90 average, we would need to the last 11 days to average 4.8C. Somewhere in between probably not a bad bet, but another below average month looks likely at this stage.

[Stu_London]

If there is anyone out there left with faith in Euro model, then a sub 3C outcome is still very much a possibility.

Personally I think it's another rogue run and somewhere just north of 4C is more likely, although I am expecting some cold after Christmas.

[The PIT]

Met office gradually upping the temps for Saturday making it a mild day while Sunday will close to average. Today is very cold so will knock another chunk of the figure but tomorrow double figure temps in part of the CET zone and the same for Saturday.

[Harve]

2.3c to the 13th, almost definitely the low point for the month.

[The PIT]

On and upwards from now on the question is how much damage will be done with the models continuing the trend to milder outlooks bar the odd cold outlier.

[BornFromTheVoid]

2.3C to the 14th

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was 2.3C. Today's minimum is 2.7C, while maxima look like being around 9C, so an increase to 2.5C is likely tomorrow (possibly 2.6).

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

2.8C to the 16th (6.5)

3.0C to the 17th (6.5)

3.1C to the 18th (4.8]

3.2C to the 19th (5.4)

3.6C to the 20th (10.5)

3.8C to the 21st (8.3)

4.1C to the 22nd (9.7)

[Isolated Frost]

under 1c = 1%

1c-2c = 5%

2c-2.5c = 5%

2.5c-3c = 15%

3c-3.5c = 30%

3.5c-4c = 20%

4c-4.5c = 15%

4.5c-5c = 5%

over 5c = 4%

imo

[damianslaw]

Half way juncture and whilst we will see a rise in the CET over the next 7 days or so, there is still a good chance of coming in decently below average if we see a chilly final week - currently what I am expecting, which would mean our 7th below average CET month this year.. (I think..).

Normally though the run up to christmas often delivers the lowest CET values for December after a mild first half and a more changeable average final week, but not this year... indeed this December is looking a carbon copy of 2008, which saw a cold first 12 days or so, followed by a very mild period in the run up to christmas, followed by a cold final week with the change to colder conditions taking place on christmas day. The second half of 2012 has been very similiar to the second half of 2008.

[IanR]

Although we are into a milder spell, it might not be enough to tip the balance into an average or above average December,

so thats September, October, November, and now likely December, below average, This after a coolish summer , I find it very interesting how long this below average trend will continue, in these so called warming times, just how long can it be sustained , I will find it rather funny and highly remarkable if January and February follow suit , then again I have a feeling they might just.

[Interitus]

Although we are into a milder spell, it might not be enough to tip the balance into an average or above average December,

so thats September, October, November, and now likely December, below average, This after a coolish summer , I find it very interesting how long this below average trend will continue, in these so called warming times, just how long can it be sustained , I will find it rather funny and highly remarkable if January and February follow suit , then again I have a feeling they might just.

December might be close to average yet or only a little below. Either way, the year as a whole is still going to be just above the 1961-90 average as used by the Met Office.

[Summer Sun]

The CET is now at 2.8 which is -2.1 below average

[TonyH]

I would say between 4 and 5c likely.

[DR Hosking]

3.0c to 17th

[DR Hosking]

3.1c to 18th

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

And climbing. CET tracker has it at 3.53c today so wonder what the UKMO or Philip Eden will have. With more climbing ahead a very close to average month could be had.

BFTP

[Summer Sun]

We now need a rise of 1.7c in the final 12 days to hit average with the way things are looking we should manage that easy

I'm going to call an above average December with a CET of around 5.2, 4.8 is the average

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I thought 5.1c was the average, or is that the newer 30 year mean?

BFTP

[Summer Sun]

I thought 5.1c was the average, or is that the newer 30 year mean?

BFTP

Looking on the Met office CET site we currently have a CET of 3.1 which is -1.7 below normal - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes but is Dec CET mean 5.1c or 4.8c? I thought 5.1c

BFTP

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 2.4C, while maxima look like getting into the 6s, so 3.2C likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

3.4C to the 20th (7.4)

3.6C to the 21st (6.5)

3.7C to the 22nd (7.0)

4.0C to the 23rd (9.9)

4.2C to the 24th (10.3)

4.4C to the 25th (8.8]

4.5C to the 26th (6.9)

The next 3 days could be very different to what the 06z shows, as the boundary between the cold air to the east and the encroaching mild south westerlies appears to straddle the CET zone until the 23rd. So even a difference of 100 miles either direction could change the daily values by 2C.

At this stage, I'd still say anything between 3.5C and 5.5C is still in with a shout, but with the upper end of that range most likely.

Edited December 19, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[Summer Sun]

Yes but is Dec CET mean 5.1c or 4.8c? I thought 5.1c

BFTP

Netweather have it at 5.1c (71-00 average) with the CET currently at 3.53°C

So It must be 5.1c

Wonder why the Met office one works out at 4.8c (81-10 average maybe?)

Edited December 19, 2012 by Gavin.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Using the downloaded monthly values...

61-90 = 4.7C

71-00 = 5.1C

81-10 = 4.6C

Last 10 Decembers = 4.4C

All Decembers = 4.1C