Model Output Discussion: 12Z (22/11/12) And On...

[nick sussex]

http://www.meteociel...&nh=1&archive=0

someone unlike me with a bit of knowledge please look at the JMA, what happens between 84h and 92h is impossible?

Yes the outputs imploded!

I'd ignore it, obviously some data problem as the info downloaded to the meteociel server showing outputs from the past.

[Chris D]

Not to be a party pooper or anything but, the progression from T+120hrs to T+144 looks a bit weird on the UKMO, the LP just to the S of Greenland on T120 strengthens and hits the NE US on T144? Can anyone explain this, I'm thinking it's the reversal of the jet, or does it just merge with the low near Newfoudland?

T120: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=120&carte=1021

T144: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021

[Alan Medlock Valley]

People, the GFS blip is just one run and in deep FI, let's see how it pans out for the 18z and the rest tomorrow. No need for panic yet.

[chris55]

The Gem & UKMO very similar this evening..

Gem - http://modeles.meteo...gemnh-0-138.png

UKMO - http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?23-17

Seeing UKMO from the NH view, it's a stonker of a run. Though at range this range, in this situation, all options open.

[phil nw.]

Looking at WZ JMA looks to be just coming out.It looks like the later frames are from the earlier run?

[chris55]

Not to be a party pooper or anything but, the progression from T+120hrs to T+144 looks a bit weird on the UKMO, the LP just to the S of Greenland on T120 strengthens and hits the NE US on T144? Can anyone explain this, I'm thinking it's the reversal of the jet, or does it just merge with the low near Newfoudland?

T120: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=120&carte=1021

T144: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021

Check out the GEMs evolution, it has the 120-144 part in more detail and similar to UKMO. The Low your talking about is a separate thing.

[snowking]

Yes the outputs imploded!

I'd ignore it, obviously some data problem as the info downloaded to the meteociel server showing outputs from the past.

Yep some sort of data issue

Rjma961.gif

Looks as though meteociel's has just reverted to an older output from somewhere

[Harve]

Not to be a party pooper or anything but, the progression from T+120hrs to T+144 looks a bit weird on the UKMO, the LP just to the S of Greenland on T120 strengthens and hits the NE US on T144? Can anyone explain this, I'm thinking it's the reversal of the jet, or does it just merge with the low near Newfoudland?

T120: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=120&carte=1021

T144: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021

Yes, I'm not quite sure what's going there. It could be the shallow low near Nova Scotia rapidly deepening and the low south of Greenland rapidly filling. It seems equally implausible that a deep low moves westwards and deepens further.

Edited November 23, 2012 by Harve

[The Eagle]

I won't spoil it but check out BOM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php

Edited November 23, 2012 by The Eagle

[weather eater]

The thing I can't get my head around on here is the amount of 'blind faith' people seem to be exuding. At times the weather makes mockery of even seasoned forecasters and there is no guarantee or certainty of any outcome. Even if something is highly probable, it's still not certain. the GFS 12z remains a plausible solution and IMO people are being foolish consigning it to the 'bin' or 'shredder' (two phrases which are really starting to grind my gears just lately).

I'm trying to provide a balance to some of the more exuberant posts on here over the past few days!

I’m not sure if its blind faith, more a case of weighing up one run against all the other evidence so far, which in all fairness is all we can ever do. If subsequent runs back up this GFS run, then a re-evaluation would be required. The problem the model thread has always had, is that in general, people read too much into individual runs, in truth there is no such thing as a run that verifies as synoptics are in a constant state of evolution, that why I never bother that much with the details post about 72hrs, no ifs, no buts they are going to change.

[wolvesfan]

Evening all,

GFS 12z operational run clearly one of the mildest members of all the ensembles,

[chris55]

Just to reiterate, take the UKMO 144 (amazing) and the GFS 12z ens and IMO nothing has really changed tonight except that the GFS was a bit of an outlier in the mid range, over doing the power of the shortwave exiting Greenland.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

If the Op had been perb 6 (which is as plausible as the Op IMO) there would be many more excited posts on here although that would have no bearing on the end result.

http://modeles.meteo...-6-1-180.png?12

Edited November 23, 2012 by chris55

[chionomaniac]

I won't spoil it but check out BOM

http://www.meteociel...bome_cartes.php

Evidently the BOM has a verification rate that has increased recently to close to 100%

(or did I just make that up)

Edited November 23, 2012 by chionomaniac

[SMU]

can someone post the hyper link to the ecm 120 and 144 tonight for meteociel as I cannot use the whole site on my phone, just individual links...

Fingerd xed.

Great gem will see very cold uppers knocking on the uks doorstep, the s/wave in the atlantic will not even get close.

Remember 12z gfs eastward bias!

S

[Barry12]

Evidently the BOM has a verification rate that has increased recently to close to 100%

(or did I just make that up)

70% of statistics are made up on the spot, including this one.

[Continental Climate]

Ive always found the australians to be a uniquely intelligent nation especially when it comes to weather forecasting http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/bom/runs/2012112312/bomnh-0-216.png?12

[Jason H]

I won't spoil it but check out BOM

http://www.meteociel...bome_cartes.php

If only....The best case scenario.

[Southender]

can someone post the hyper link to the ecm 120 and 144 tonight for meteociel as I cannot use the whole site on my phone, just individual links...

Fingerd xed.

Great gem will see very cold uppers knocking on the uks doorstep, the s/wave in the atlantic will not even get close.

Remember 12z gfs eastward bias!

S

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=0&map=1&archive=0 ECM 120

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=0&map=1&archive=0 ECM 144

[Dampdorset82]

it seems every single model doesnt know whats going on! there is a trend but the trend is for a weak cooler period or a short cold period followed by a break down. I certainly am not going to read anything further than 96 hrs. People following the charts must be having a break down there have been no consistancy in an overall pattern.

Also I must ask the question why people bin a milder run and strongly believe a 2010 or a similar event is going to happen. I think a step back and think short term is the way forward

[pages]

I won't spoil it but check out BOM

http://www.meteociel...bome_cartes.php

please let it happen the whole of the uk under -8 850s with the south east corner under -12

[Snowmadsam]

Ok folks, here we go the ECM..its either or...

*tension music*

ohh its exciting!

This afternoons runs are ok....but the ecm will be the big one...

Here we go!

Edited November 23, 2012 by Snowmadsam

[The Eagle]

can someone post the hyper link to the ecm 120 and 144 tonight for meteociel as I cannot use the whole site on my phone, just individual links...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

120

[nick sussex]

The energy from that low to the west is already beginning to disrupt at 120hrs on the ECM.

It might not look as good as the UKMO for the same time but certainly looks like it will evolve differently from the GFS.

[SE Blizzards]

I won't spoil it but check out BOM

http://www.meteociel...bome_cartes.php

Massive 'eye candy'!

[Continental Climate]

Ive not seen the 144 yet and you can see that the GFS is on its own much less energy from our greenie low