Model Output Discussion: 12Z (22/11/12) And On...

[Continental Climate]

are we happy yet?

I will order a UKMO to go please

[AWD]

168 chart looks good (ish) uppers only around -4C, not great for convective snow at low levels

Look at the NH chart and then you'll see what's heading towards the UK.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=0&map=1&type=0&archive=0

[ITSY]

ECM and UKMO look more favorable. I know this for a fact.

Wow...now that is a new variation. Stonking (yes, stonking) Northerly on this run, with its air coming from Siberia and block either side. Hallelujah?

Edited November 23, 2012 by ITSY

[Tim Bland]

At 192 hrs we hit the magic -5c almost nationwide and under low pressure that means one thing......Sssss Some more runs needed

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Edited November 23, 2012 by Tim Bland

[Frosty.]

Phew ECM takes the UKMO option

Yes but we have to go through the same nightmare suspense tomorrow will it won't it...this is nerve shredding stuff.

[Methuselah]

It was always going to be the case when the GFS was shown to be out of kilt with the ensembles ESP the control run. I don't often view the GFS output just the ensembles and find that way it's less painful. GFS will continue to throw in shortwaves and move the HLB around, 18z could show -15c and 2 foot of snow but I wouldn't be jumping for joy until it was near the ensemble mean.

Aye, the Scots'll be freezing!

[January Snowstorm]

Well another twist at 196hrs, a Northerly now rather than an easterly

Plenty cold, but that block seems very far away this evening!

[Snowy Easterlies]

uppers are actually quite cold at T192 even though synoptics look a bit messy

[Geordiesnow]

In all fairness, the GFS is not all that bad, its just a slight scare which may alter the outlook but its still got plenty of potential to deliver the goods.

If what the ECM does with the trough is correct, then we may look back at this upcoming spell of weather and think if only it was January/February, or if only the uppers were colder to start off with because we really don't want mild air heading into Scandinavia again otherwise its a case of starting all over again.

Models are showing a nice chilly spell of weather, snowfall looks limited but its below average none the less.

[Cheshire Freeze]

sooooo.....where do we go from 192??

[Duane S.]

ECM lacking a bit of WAA thrust, still would ensure cold for the UK but not nirvana.

Thereafter, plenty of opportunities though. No complaints from me

[snowice]

if you had to call it today which model nails it at+t144 in members opinions?

Edited November 23, 2012 by snowice

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Look at the NH chart and then you'll see what's heading towards the UK.

http://www.meteociel...ype=0&archive=0

Yeah thats good, -8 uppers, NW wind, could this run be great for NW Midlands? still too FI for me yet though

[January Snowstorm]

Cold at 216hrs, but very fragile!

[glosteroldboy]

ECM once again seems to take a slightly different approach to the trough, bringing in a northerly first:

similar to the 00Z:

Am I eyeing a Newfoundland snowstorm on that chart?

[Cloud 10]

sooooo.....where do we go from 192??

To sledge-orama to spend some cash..

[NickR]

In all fairness, the GFS is not all that bad, its just a slight scare which may alter the outlook but its still got plenty of potential to deliver the goods.

If what the ECM does with the trough is correct, then we may look back at this upcoming spell of weather and think if only it was January/February, or if only the uppers were colder to start off with because we really don't want mild air heading into Scandinavia again otherwise its a case of starting all over again.

Models are showing a nice chilly spell of weather, snowfall looks limited but its below average none the less.

Good post, and a good, feet-on-the-ground counter to some of the excessively exhuberant reactions to the ECM and output in general on p.31.

[ITSY]

sooooo.....where do we go from 192??

Well looks like the Easterly will arrive at +240 given the 216 chart. Cut off the Nly in two by a diving lp into Europe...all very confusing and messy. Either that or the Atlantic/Azores will win...

Edited November 23, 2012 by ITSY

[January Snowstorm]

Also, our best friend (the azores high) is keeping a watchful eye on us the whole time to see are we lonely!!

Good ECM but not briliant

[Mucka]

I have to laugh at the model bias in here. GFS is not on its own, it shows a different evolution of the pattern that is all. All the models have developed that feature from a shortwave to a low and have it diving south at the ridge, what happens from there varies with each model and each ensemble member. Nobody is saying ECM is out on its own which it is. The chances of it not spoiling the party are reasonably low on balance but I would put the champagne on ice for now.

How is ECM on its own?

Look how flat it is behind the ridge from 120, every other model is already showing signs of amplification at 120 and by 144 if you make the comparisons the difference is very obvious, so shall we bin the ECM run?

MetO is without doubt pick of the models out to 144 so I guess that must be right.

I think we will be okay but I'm sure we will all be happier once that shortwave/ diving low is nailed and we get better WAA behind a la GFS and UKMO than ECM.

Edited November 23, 2012 by Mucka

[weather eater]

if you had to call it today which model nails in at+t144 in members opinions?

None, I seriously doubt any of them have nailed it at 96hrs maybe 72hrs, at less pretty close

Edited November 23, 2012 by weather eater

[chris55]

ECM had this slightly odd pattern the other day on one of the Det runs with the trough quite far north.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

I say the models have no idea at the moment? More runs needed.

[nick sussex]

Whilst the ECM on the face of it looks fine it relies on that troughing eventually sinking south well into FI.

And at this timeframe the infamous shortwaves may well ride in to town later to complicate things further. Personally I hope both the ECM and GFS get consigned to the bin.

If the UKMO was Dover Sole, Champagne and Strawberries the ECM is budget fish fingers and chips and Lambrusco, the GFS with a little tweek has a much better overall pattern within its higher resolution and is Sirloin Steak, Saute potatoes and a bottle of Bordeaux!

[Tim Bland]

Well looks like the Easterly will arrive at +240 given the 216 chart. Cut off the Nly in two by a diving lp into Europe...all very confusing and messy. Either that or the Atlantic/Azores will win...

Problem is, there's no cold pool to our east to tap into. Eastern Europe has 850s above 0c at 216 and 240hrs I think it's going to be sleetmagedon end of next week

If you live above 250mts then get the champagne out.. If you live near the coast or in the SW then no chance... In the middle sleet at times.. That's my punt ATM

Edited November 23, 2012 by Tim Bland

[Cheshire Freeze]

Whilst the ECM on the face of it looks fine it relies on that troughing eventually sinking south well into FI.

And at this timeframe the infamous shortwaves may well ride in to town later to complicate things further. Personally I hope both the ECM and GFS get consigned to the bin.

If the UKMO was Dover Sole, Champagne and Strawberries the ECM is budget fish fingers and chips and Lambrusco, the GFS with a little tweek has a much better overall pattern within its higher resolution and is Sirloin Steak, Saute potatoes and a bottle of Bordeaux!

Yep ECM not so nice. Don't say we're reliant on the UKMO