Model Output Discussion: 12Z (22/11/12) And On...

[January Snowstorm]

ECM looks good at 120hrs

Not necessarily for what it shows at this timeframe, rather what SHOULD happen next!

[london-snow]

BOM extraordinary synoptics

Yes and has also been very consistent in showing this type of pattern for the past few days now with no wobbles.

[Jayces]

Oh dear what happened? Cold shoved well into deep FI and nothing really cold before then. Looks wet and cool and Snow reserved for the peaks in Scotland and far North of England. Well what happened was the secondary low getting in the wrong position.

I thought the cold was 8-10 days away and the ECM run hasn't finished on Meteociel?

[Matty M]

ECM looks good at 120hrs

Not necessarily for what it shows at this timeframe, rather what SHOULD happen next!

I like the 850hPa temps.......

Could get a few shleet showers out of it

[Isolated Frost]

Oh dear what happened? Cold shoved well into deep FI and nothing really cold before then. Looks wet and cool and Snow reserved for the peaks in Scotland and far North of England. Well what happened was the secondary low getting in the wrong position.

Not... cold... ?

Trough and UK flow from the north-east rather similar to yesterdays 12z on the ECM so far- but the AH doesn't complete ridging at D5, like it did and the comparable D6 yesterday- and the flow o/ n scandi is accordingly less fluent for a more direct east/north-east flow.

Better than the 0z though- if we can compare them ?

[Geordiesnow]

ECM looks good at 120hrs

Not necessarily for what it shows at this timeframe, rather what SHOULD happen next!

Well we got a Northerly flow which may deliver some wintry showers towards Northern parts of Scotland, uppers are not remarkable because of the lack of cold over the Greenland sea but shortwave permitting, we may see a link up on this run.

That said, I can see many shortwaves on this run already, lets hope they don't ruin what could be a promising run.

[January Snowstorm]

I thought the cold was 8-10 days away and the ECM run hasn't finished on Meteociel?

It was 2 days ago, trouble is it is still 8-10 days away now, 2 days on.

Still in general looking very good!

[weather eater]

There is a stark difference on the BOM as compared to the GFS; whereas the GFS runs the second of this weekend’s LPs across southern England before sinking it south the BOM shunts it south towards Spain before it crosses the UK, the ECM is more in keeping with the GFS in regards this system.

[SMU]

I think certain posters are making more of the hiccups than some-

ECM 144-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012112212/ECH1-144.GIF?22-0

Happy thus far

S

[Liam J]

ECM very bullish about this depression over the weekend, really not backing down at all. One to keep an eye on as it would bring yet more wet & wild weather across the UK.

[Matty M]

ECM not a million miles away from the UKM at T144hrs.. We see the Arctic High struggling to ridge southwestwards.. Now lets see how it evolves after T144.

[January Snowstorm]

Well at 144hrs it's better but not by much

We have found a new trend I think, and that trend is telling us the cold (proper cold) will be delayed.

Things are looking fragile compared to last night, but perhaps better for a longer cold spell

[nick sussex]

No agreement between the big 3 models at 144hrs.

The UKMO and GFS agree on the upstream pattern, however they disagree with events in Europe.

The ECM and GFS disagree on all the key features.

The ECM has a flatter upstream pattern and disagrees with both the GFS and UKMO which are more amplified.

So basically in terms of the crucial details no agreement!

[Ian Ballinger]

It was 2 days ago, trouble is it is still 8-10 days away now, 2 days on.

Still in general looking very good!

The good stuff is always 8 days away haha

[Cheshire Freeze]

No agreement between the big 3 models at 144hrs.

The UKMO and GFS agree on the upstream pattern, however they disagree with events in Europe.

The ECM and GFS disagree on all the key features.

The ECM has a flatter upstream pattern and disagrees with both the GFS and UKMO which are more amplified.

So basically in terms of the crucial details no agreement!

Indeed, regardless of what some tell us, the cold, snow producing, uppers are by no means nailed at all; the more it gets delayed, the riskier it gets. Saying this, I'd rather have a slower build up to a more sustained cold pattern than a quick fix then back to zonal!

[liam300]

Well at 144hrs it's better but not by much

We have found a new trend I think, and that trend is telling us the cold (proper cold) will be delayed.

Things are looking fragile compared to last night, but perhaps better for a longer cold spell

Keeps delaying, is it actaully going to happen. Its now in FI now

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Uppers crap on 168 chart (thurs 29th) got the NW wind as well, but uppers of -4C wont be snow, too early in season yet

[January Snowstorm]

At 168hrs the ECM is a nudge better also but not by much

What it does tell us though is that the morning trend has largely been stuck with this evening

The positive though is the 168hrs chart screams potential, expect FI to be a thing of beauty (synoptically anyway)

[Cheshire Freeze]

Uppers crap on 168 chart (thurs 29th) got the NW wind as well, but uppers of -4C wont be snow, too early in season yet

It's like pulling teeth under no anaesthetic, trying to get some cold uppers into the mix!

[Mucka]

The main thrust of cold maybe delayed a little but all that matters is that ECM got through that phase without breaking. From 168 we will see the Atlantic ridge restrengthen and winds slowly back toward East and colder air approach

[shotski]

Keeps delaying, is it actaully going to happen. Its now in FI now

It was always in this timeframe ?? or am I missing something here

[Geordiesnow]

Well at 144hrs it's better but not by much

We have found a new trend I think, and that trend is telling us the cold (proper cold) will be delayed.

Things are looking fragile compared to last night, but perhaps better for a longer cold spell

Tbh, unless I'm mistaken, there has been no real trends for a proper cold spell, the only trends I saw is for pronounce blocking to perhaps occur(and that is getting nearer to the reliable timeframe) with cool upper air temperatures. The real cold uppers are still over 200 hours away but as it has been said, changes in the set ups can bring this closer to the reliable timeframe quicker or it can delay it or not even turn up at all.

Shame we are lacking any real cold uppers at the moment because the ECM set ups at 96-144 hours would normally deliver some sort of snow event but because of various reasons, its going be cool and fairly snow less at least at first.

There is of course the risk we could have all this blocking but very little snowfall, its just the irony of the weather I'm afraid.

[weather_it_will]

No agreement between the big 3 models at 144hrs.

Probably not worth looking beyond 27th November T+144 but the usual suspects taking every run as Gospel proclaiming winter is over.

Up to T+144 all looks great to me.

[Liam J]

The ECM & JMA are very similar at T168 over Europe.

Edited November 22, 2012 by Liam J

[Met4Cast]

Disagreement from T144 on all three models as Nick says. There's no point worrying about where the ECM goes from here on in, if we can't get support at T144 then chances are the rest of the run isn't going to verify like this anyway.

Can everyone chill? I'm getting fed up of reading "Oh this charts rubbish" every day. Learn to read the charts properly or wait until someone more experienced posts before whining.