Model Output Discussion: 12Z (22/11/12) And On...

[Matty M]

Also: ECM much more developmental with the wave currently over the Azores.

A number of worrying perturbations in the mix and the majority favouring a strong depression moving northwards through the UK early Sunday.

[snowking]

Also: ECM much more developmental with the wave currently over the Azores.

A number of worrying perturbations in the mix and the majority favouring a strong depression moving northwards through the UK early Sunday.

Wind speeds being projected from the ECMWF det. of around 70mph through a large swathe of southern england and wales

Rainfall totals worryingly close to the 100mm mark too over 66 hours in the west

SK

[Methuselah]

Welcome to the forum SE Blizzards.

A good first post.

Thirded!

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM ensemble mean @ T240, not sure I like the look of the low heights north of Svalbard plus the Arctic high is now sitting over Siberia.

You sure that's the mean? Looks bit too specific to be a mean chart to me....For example I don't think shortwaves would be picked up so intricately at 240 hours on a mean chart.

[SMU]

thats the op- ^^

S

[Cheshire Freeze]

thats the op- ^^

S

Was thinking that myself Steve.....thought I was going mad!

[Liam J]

You sure that's the mean? Looks bit too specific to be a mean chart to me....For example I don't think shortwaves would be picked up so intricately at 240 hours on a mean chart.

Yeah, heres the link - http://www.ecmwf.int...s!2012112212!!/

Edited November 22, 2012 by Liam J

[Snowy Easterlies]

so are the ECM ensembles decent then ?

[Jason T]

few more encouraging Joe B tweets folks

Just like Nov 2010, heavy rains preceded the turn to colder over Nw Europe... Rains into UK now

Is the UK and NW europe ready for a start to the winter season that will rival 2010. We will find out soon enough

Santa also wanted me to let you know that n hemisphere snowcover is above normal and that the sled will be used more than normal this year

This one just appeared as-well.....They better be ready.. this NAO is as severely negative this early as I have ever seen. Fear is rolling blackouts when cold

Check this out, and ECMWF is with it! AO tanking too.

All these directed at piers.

• 
  

Edited November 22, 2012 by Jason T

[bluearmy]

thats not the ens mean sea level pressure liam.

extended de bllt ens the best yet with a further indication that the second bite at the cherry may well be the way to go

[SMU]

ECM ensembles are excellent-

Liam thats the mean sea level pressure from the OP- not the Ensemble mean- there is no mean on the ECMWF site

S

Edited November 22, 2012 by Steve Murr

[Liam J]

thats not the ens mean sea level pressure liam.

extended de bllt ens the best yet with a further indication that the second bite at the cherry may well be the way to go

OK fair enough, I must be missing something, but it does say 'mean sea level pressure' above the chart?

ECM ensembles are excellent-

Liam thats the mean sea level pressure from the OP- not the Ensemble mean- there is no mean on the ECMWF site

S

Ah right, thanks Steve.... I just saw the 'mean' and assumed it was the ensemble mean, not really familiar with the ECMWF site

Edited November 22, 2012 by Liam J

[nick sussex]

This gives a good idea of the big differences upstream between the GFS and ECM at 144hrs:

GFS

ECM

At the moment the ECM is seen as an outlier solution in the USA so we'll have to see whether this is indeed the case tomorrow.

Those rather unusual looking charts can be found here:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

The good thing is that you can run animation also and see the whole pattern from the east Pacific right to western Europe

[NorthYorksWeather]

anyone got a link to the ecm ensemble graphs? cheers

[jonnybradley]

Quick question from noob

You guys have been calling this patten change for a while from the 500mb charts, right and these still support the patten but are now a lot closer in time.

Just wondering how you read the same charts look forward now. Are they supporting the patten to stick around longer term? Or do these charts become less reliable until things settle down a bit more?

I think I saw GP eluding to the fact that longer forecast 500mb still show the pattern sticking.

Any thoughts?

Thanks

[bluearmy]

ECM ensembles are excellent-

Liam thats the mean sea level pressure from the OP- not the Ensemble mean- there is no mean on the ECMWF site

S

not true steve - there is mean data on ecmwf.int. you can roll it back 9 days aswell !! its listed under 'forecasts - ens prediction system'.

naefs fi continues with the west based -NAO and an expanded weak trough across us. if we can get snowfall early dec, we are definitely going to be in the freezer. otherwise, prob v cold and damp. (thats if naefs is right)

[SMU]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!Europe!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2012112212!!chart.gif

fair play BA- that would be the mean

S

[Cloud 10]

The 12z operational run for day 10 from the ECM has 1000mb of pressure over Greenland compared

to the ensemble mean of 1025mb,as well as a much more organised PV,so maybe one for the shredder.

operational run.. ensemble mean.

Edited November 22, 2012 by Cloud 10

[johnholmes]

Sorry john but im going to have to pull you up on this.

You cannot really use the 500mb anomaly charts to predict the upper temps because on a tiny island like ours that kind of detail isn't possible on those charts. Furthermore very few runs have actually shown -10 850s.

For newcomers the choice of models to use is simple.

500MB anomaly charts are a very good guide with regards to the general pattern because these are less prone to sudden changes.

The GFS/UKMO/ECM are better for details i.e precip, temps etc but only out to +144.

The Fax charts are even better than the models especially from +0 to +72.

Even more detail can be gained from viewing the NAE which goes out to +48.

So for newcomers that is the order of the models to use.

you obviously did not read my post fully TEITS,

this is the relevant bit

cold air and a -10C 850 almost over the country at times. Yes its in a far time frame but it is in keeping with the 500mb anomaly charts

I was using the anomaly charts for temperatures AT 850mb and then alluding to the 500mb charts are also a useful tool to suggest the depth of cold. But thanks for the comment and for newcomers, with the exception of my correction then the ideas TEITS suggests are fine.

[Gael_Force]

OK fair enough, I must be missing something, but it does say 'mean sea level pressure' above the chart?

Ah right, thanks Steve.... I just saw the 'mean' and assumed it was the ensemble mean, not really familiar with the ECMWF site

Is this not the ensemble mean for the ECM run.?

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!Northern%20Hemisphere!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2012112212!!/

[bluearmy]

Is this not the ensemble mean for the ECM run.?

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!Northern%20Hemisphere!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2012112212!!/

Yes it is. We dealt with this a few posts back gf

[Gael_Force]

Yes it is. We dealt with this a few posts back gf

Lol, yes! you are all going too fast for this old codger.

[SMU]

No backing down from the GFS tonight on the 18z-

Its morphing the atlantic ridge towards the Arctic ridge like the NOGAPS- with better westward advection out of russia than the 12z GFS-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2012112218/gfsnh-0-108.png?18

S

[Liam J]

Is this not the ensemble mean for the ECM run.?

http://www.ecmwf.int...l!2012112212!!/

Yes it is and thank god because it's looks a dam sight better than that chart I posted!

Edited November 22, 2012 by Liam J

[Cloud 10]

18z showing some raw looking temps.for tuesday,and feeling even colder in the East

with a NE wind and heavy showers..