Model Output Discussion: 12Z (22/11/12) And On...

[phil nw.]

one liner and why if you please?

cold air and a -10C 850 almost over the country at times. Yes its in a far time frame but it is in keeping with the 500mb anomaly charts.

sorry you may be one of the few that likes mild but some comment from you would help-please?

I also found it odd when the professionals are now 'on board' I think it the phrase some of you use. Now one run again and off some of you go worrying about something when forecasters are having a hell of a time deciding just where and how deep the low on Sunday will be.

Well said John i have deleted said post.One line comments like that add nothing to the thread.

[Rollo]

I seem to recall that in mid-November 2010 there were many posts just like certain oness coming now but as many are saying it is the trends that count and the charts will change from day to day. So patience is the word.

[swfc]

Anyway as JH has said stick with the 500mb charts to avoid suicidle tendencies ete.Back to the models and all looks on track barring the "the short waves cough"!!!! so all to play for.whatever model your looking at pv is splitting and nh pressure remains .

Edited November 22, 2012 by swfc
Deleted ot comments

[chris55]

12z looking good for some in the southern half of the UK!!

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2402.png

Although to be realistic we have a major northern hemisphere pattern change coming up with some amazing potential developments, so charts at 240 are a bit pointless. Overall an exciting time for us coldies.

Edited November 22, 2012 by chris55
Ot

[latitude]

one liner and why if you please?

cold air and a -10C 850 almost over the country at times. Yes its in a far time frame but it is in keeping with the 500mb anomaly charts.

sorry you may be one of the few that likes mild but some comment from you would help-please?

The -5 850 does not reach below the M4 corridor until +360 on the GFS. Cant see a -10 except for the fringes of Aberdeen. This is what the model is showing and I am not aluding to downgrades or upgrades, just the what it is showing face value.

[The Eagle]

If I had to choose the best model run this evening so far from a cold nutter's point of view NOGAPS is not too bad.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=0&archive=0

[IDO]

Erm, how do you see northerlies? The run is completely north-east to east based. I don't understand some of these posts- at least put a chart next to these statements.

If you look at the isobars on the 500pHa from next Thursday onwards right out till FI (and I know its FI) the north is under the influence of a cooler direction, N/NE. However from south of Birmingham that area is under the flow of a low, starting from SW of the UK and ending to the South East of the UK:

http://cdn.nwstatic....216/h500slp.png

http://cdn.nwstatic....360/h500slp.png

Not a mild flow but on this run (only one run, I know) it dampens the likelihood of the south getting this colder draw.

I know this is not likely to happen and I was only suggesting a reason why the 12z wasn't great for all, based on the poster's location tag.

Edited November 22, 2012 by i'm dreaming of...

[phil nw.]

Please keep posts confined to comments on the model outputs-not other members.

Let`s get this thread back on track now so we can enjoy our discussions.

Thanks all.

[bobbydog]

one liner and why if you please?

cold air and a -10C 850 almost over the country at times. Yes its in a far time frame but it is in keeping with the 500mb anomaly charts.

sorry you may be one of the few that likes mild but some comment from you would help-please?

I also found it odd when the professionals are now 'on board' I think it the phrase some of you use. Now one run again and off some of you go worrying about something when forecasters are having a hell of a time deciding just where and how deep the low on Sunday will be.

a very good point which crossed my mind earlier john, which people really need to take note of. if there is doubt about an LP system just a couple of days from now, then we should not be worrying about positioning of short-waves at +144hrs!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Will the ECM 12z make or break the mood in here? There's only one way to find out.........(check back in about an hour!) lol

well if Piers Corbyn is going for a mild December and it comes off after current synoptical illusions then cut off my hand and call him god!

This reminds me of Backtrack and the sock incident. In the end he ate his socks.......lol

[LomondSnowstorm]

I think it's worth remembering that at this stage in the evolution without fail there will be at least one 'shortwave spoiler winter over freakout'. Usually they're quite a bit more devastating than this one, which looks more of a delay than a total pulling the plug:

The UKMO does have a reputation as being the 'spoiler model' but, while it's always good to have full agreement, this is only one run and actually the T+0 chart will look somewhat different to any individual run at the moment. The broader picture in almost every respect is looking very promising in the medium term for cold weather.

[london-snow]

As much as there a divide over Joe laminate floori he has really stuck to his word for last month or so and now he's seen similar to Dec 2010 , on the other hand Piers Corbyn is saying Mild December according to MV facebook comments, though Piers said he predicted snowstorm over month ago for USA which happen this week, how can you predict snow that far out!

The truth is bullseye you cannot predict snow from that far out. The only way that the likes of corbyn can say he successfully predicted snow to fall is through way of percentages i.e cold weather = Highish probability of snow. Realistically anything above 24 - 48 hours you're having a punt.

Getting back to the models - Arctic high setting up to our north east and lp to our se certainly a good way as we enter december if your after cold weather.

[Zenarcher]

UKMO yesterday 144 hours for the 27th

UKMO today now 120 hours,

GFS Yesterday 144 hours

GFS Today 120 hours

Notice how the UKMO today at 120 hours has moved the high in the Northern hemisphere into the exact same position the GFS has placed it yesterday and today. Good sign.

Edited November 22, 2012 by weathermaster

[phil nw.]

If any cold lovers fail to be excited about our forthcoming pattern change then look what those in the USA have got to look forward too

jet as flat as a pancake all the cold bottled up north-not even a northerly toppler to ponder.

Meanwhile on our side of the pond a solid -AO/-NAO set up with the jet off well south by next week.

[chris55]

If any cold lovers fail to be excited about our forthcoming pattern change then look what those in the USA have got to look forward too

jet as flat as a pancake all the cold bottled up north-not even a northerly toppler to ponder.

Meanwhile on our side of the pond a solid -AO/-NAO set up with the jet off well south by next week.

Good post Phill, we are now entering a period where the cold options have the potential to be coming thick and fast, with a jet profile like you have pointed out in the US there is no chance of anything interesting, our upcoming spell is loaded IMO.

[bluearmy]

If any cold lovers fail to be excited about our forthcoming pattern change then look what those in the USA have got to look forward too

jet as flat as a pancake all the cold bottled up north-not even a northerly toppler to ponder.

Meanwhile on our side of the pond a solid -AO/-NAO set up with the jet off well south by next week.

maybe on the west side phil but the ecm ens mean uppers have two very cold troughs over the eastern half of the states over the next week or so. if you're asking me if i'd rather be here or michigan i'm on the next flight mate !!!

[Backtrack]

On a more serious model related note I think we need to be looking at the wider picture and not just the operational models. I recall GP just this morning saying it is unlikely we will see any kind of lengthy spell of mild weather this side of Christmas and possibly beyond, so why people are complaining about one UKMO run is completely beyond me, just look at the GFS, it's more than eye candy, it's perfection.

Cold block setting up as the starting point, and then a little wait until the cold air comes to us. The corridor is certainly there, it's just a matter of patience.

Edited November 22, 2012 by chionomaniac
removed off topic post

[The Northern Ramper]

As much as there a divide over Joe laminate floori he has really stuck to his word for last month or so and now he's seen similar to Dec 2010 , on the other hand Piers Corbyn is saying Mild December according to MV facebook comments, though Piers said he predicted snowstorm over month ago for USA which happen this week, how can you predict snow that far out!

GP has been bullish for weeks about this set up and US snow storms are common.

[Alan Medlock Valley]

Piers Corbyn used the word mild? Can that man get anything right?

A couple tips for the newbies:

When Piers Corbyn says mild, be prepared for one hell of a cold spell

When Piers Corbyn says cold, you might as well put your coats back in the cupboard.

On a more serious model related note I think we need to be looking at the wider picture and not just the operational models. I recall GP just this morning saying it is unlikely we will see any kind of lengthy spell of mild weather this side of Christmas and possibly beyond, so why people are complaining about one UKMO run is completely beyond me, just look at the GFS, it's more than eye candy, it's perfection.

Cold block setting up as the starting point, and then a little wait until the cold air comes to us. The corridor is certainly there, it's just a matter of patience.

You know what it's like some people in here won't be satisfied until the snow depth reaches their roof, but on topic for the end of November and early December these esembles are great for cold http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

[Matty M]

ECM shows problematic system racing north Sunday morning.

Potential for storm force winds for some.

The ECM has been BULLISH with this scenario.

60hr chart would be handy.

[Long haul to mild]

If I had to choose the best model run this evening so far from a cold nutter's point of view NOGAPS is not too bad.

http://www.meteociel...rte=0&archive=0

Yes, that T180 chart is borderline insane! Shame it's the NOGAPS though........

I am personally not worried about the UKMO T144 chart, a shortwave at that range is hardly nailed on! Cold is certainly coming but the details will only start to be firmed up once the track of the weekend/early next week low is sorted.

[The Eagle]

BOM extraordinary synoptics

Edited November 22, 2012 by The Eagle

[PubliusEnigma]

It's not been great recently but its still a good model. In terms of the 144hrs we might get away with it those shortwaves might head into Scandi and with low heights over the Med the high cant sink.

It's not a disaster by any means, I think we have to accept that the models are having a hard time here!

We wait for the ECM but I wouldn't be surprised to see that come up with a different scenario!

Nick the most likely scenario is thus. With a warm sector potentially getting caught up in the mix if the high continues to sink a little south on subsequent

runs. the worry is the low over southern greenland which is deepening and could effectively cut of the flow from the deep north.

[Matty M]

If we look at the developing system right now on the water vapour imagery, it already looks quite impressive.

Hopefully the models get a handle of it when it passes towards more data rich regions.

Edited November 22, 2012 by Matty M

[The PIT]

Oh dear what happened? Cold shoved well into deep FI and nothing really cold before then. Looks wet and cool and Snow reserved for the peaks in Scotland and far North of England. Well what happened was the secondary low getting in the wrong position.