Model Output Discussion 23/11/2012 18Z onwards

[The Eagle]

12z GFS alignments slightly better but a shortwave off the west of Norway really makes things difficult. Doubt there is enough here to turn this back around but we will see.

[Continental Climate]

A little underwhelming i must say http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.png we seem to have lost the easterly

[NickR]

A little underwhelming i must say http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1081.png we seem to have lost the easterly

At 120 we seem to be stuck in the same no-man's land (is that a col? - genuine question, my knowledge is shaky here!) as on the 06z.

It's certainly colder than the 06z with colder uppers in place.

Edited November 24, 2012 by NickR

[MKN]

This runs an improvement on the 06z. At this point +108. That about all that can be said. Reason for that is slightly better heights around iceland/greenland.

[January Snowstorm]

12z has followed the 06z run out to 120hrs

Different but the trend is the same with the atlantic knocking on the door

Pbly be shoved back again but the 06z was right in its trend imo

[Continental Climate]

At 120 we seem to be stuck in the same no-man's land (is that a col? - genuine question, my knowledge is shaky here!) as on the 06z.

It's certainly colder than the 06z with colder uppers in place.

Lets see what the ukmo says a bit later but if it goes down the GFS route ie like the chart above then i think its curtains for the initial easterly i think but after that who knows, so hard in these situations to get agreement

[chionomaniac]

Watch the ridge heading to Greenland at T+126 - this is the critical bit - much better if you ask me and more like UKMO.

[Met4Cast]

Yup. Models definitely beginning to trend away from any real cold ever reaching the UK I think, I mean look at this

Not zonal and mild by any means, but nothing of real cold either. I've been patient but its been a few days since we've seen some real stellar runs, I'm starting to think it might just be a regular cold snap. UKMO is the only one that looks really, great. Lets see how the rest of the run develops!

Edited November 24, 2012 by Daniel AKA WMD

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2012112412/gfsnh-0-132.png?12

A complete mess at 132- however the mess is morphing towards the UKMO-

-6c uppers heading towards the SE & the cold pool looks like getting tapped on this run

S

[LomondSnowstorm]

Everything looks slightly better on this run: link up further south, much less energy coming off that mid Atlantic trough, the cold pool further west. Let's see how it goes from here:

[SMU]

12z has followed the 06z run out to 120hrs

Different but the trend is the same with the atlantic knocking on the door

Pbly be shoved back again but the 06z was right in its trend imo

JS - atlantic knocking on the door- that would be the greenland door-?

[AWD]

Looks like a MAH maybe ridging into Greenland in a weeks time if you ask me. Definetly don't see any Atlantic dominated weather coming;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=132&code=0&mode=0&carte=1

Cold (IMO) from T96 too, with frosty weather and hill snow in the north possible;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=96&mode=0&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=96&code=0&mode=1&carte=1

Very seasonal run for the end of November/beginning of December.

[January Snowstorm]

JS - atlantic knocking on the door- that would be the greenland door-?

West Cork Steve!!

I suppose am giving the Irish perspective but rain into the West of Ireland im this run just like the 06z run

[johnholmes]

and MAH=just what please?

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2012112412/UN120-21.GIF?24-17

UKMO Says no thanks GFS- this is where its at-

S

[The Eagle]

UKMO 120 not bad

[SMU]

West Cork Steve!!

I suppose am giving the Irish perspective but rain into the West of Ireland im this run just like the 06z run

Thats a small shortwave mate- thats cut off- watch is disapear.

S

[ITSY]

I'm frustrated at the impatience on this thread...look at the output! It is fantastic, and whoever said that the Atlantic is knocking on the door just isn't looking at the same run. We get Europe into the freezer by t+144 with widespread snow over the mainland and sustain -4 uppers at least from +114. the HP is building over Greenland, the NEE flow is strengthening and the set-up is headed the right way.

[Great Plum]

and MAH=just what please?

Apart from my mother's initials, I'm guessing mid Atlantic high...

[AWD]

and MAH=just what please?

Mid Atlantic High, apologies, but busy so trying to keep posts short.

[Met4Cast]

UKMO does seem to be saving the day again.

I must say though, often in the past when GFS & ECM have been going for cold, UKMO has gone for mild and ended up being right, I wonder whether this is another occasion where the UKMO is ahead of the pack.

GFS much better at T156, high ridges right up into Greenland, high pressure builds over Svalbard too!

[PubliusEnigma]

Another woeful preforming 06z- It really should be discontinued.

Once & for ALL

Top performing model-

ECM

http://www.emc.ncep..../html/acz6.html

However in the CURRENT NH PATTERN- UKMO AT THE TOP-

The GFS is third which is the 00Z run

Now the individual runs- THESE STATS SHOW ALL THE GFS BIAS

http://www.emc.ncep....region.168.html

Now look at the regionals & see how far the 06z is behind the 00z- Probably on a par with the NOGAPS-

Look at the varification stats for the atlantic Its probably as bad as TEITS crayon model.

So we now have

ECM/ UKMO trumps the GFS 00z, the 00z GFS trumps the 06z & the 06z is of a better resolution than the 06z GFS ensembles.

RESULT.

Set fire to the GFS 06z & use its 06z ensembles as firelighters.

S

So a little experiment, comparing the much maligned GFS 6z with the more reliable 12z, having said that the 0z is little better than the 6z.

Where do we stand now as the 12z is backing up the 6z theme with tiny variations, one being a ridge being pushed into NW parts of Britain

by a shortwave approaching to the west of Scotland.

It seems the GFS outputs have become less scattered. The ECM is less bullish than a few days ago and isn't a million miles different from the

the 00z ECM. Its really just the UKMO which is stubbornly sticking with a really wintry scenario.

Where will the ECM go this evening. Will it reinforce the UKMO, or slide slowly towards the GFS ?

[The Eagle]

The only spoiler on the GFS is the shortwave off the west coast of Norway.

[ITSY]

Super UKMO again...very bullish

[bluearmy]

i'm confused - the theme to take energy se around the top of the AH has been consistent for the past few runs of all models. gfs has made more of this on some runs and also gem 00z. however, the 12gfs eases it off again to go closer to the euros again. why the panic ? nothing too much has changed since yesterday