Model Output Discussion 23/11/2012 18Z onwards

[NickR]

06Z has it all further East - Atlantic makes its presence felt - we lose the colder uppers at 120hrs. Poorer evolution at this stage.

Edited November 24, 2012 by NickR

[EML Network]

Ohh Dear :-(

[Buzz]

06Z has it all further East - Atlantic makes its presence felt - we lose the colder uppers at 120hrs. Poorer evolution at this stage.

Looks to me that the atlantic low is going to stall and maybe undercut .......... keep watching .........

[UV-RAY]

06Z has it all further East - Atlantic makes its presence felt - we lose the colder uppers at 120hrs. Poorer evolution at this stage.

We can view this two ways really, missing data no need to worry or I'm now going to post "it's the end of the world no cold coming".

[bradymk]

Ohh Dear :-(

06Z has it all further East - Atlantic makes its presence felt - we lose the colder uppers at 120hrs. Poorer evolution at this stage.

From what i am seeing, it isn't that bad yet, be careful not too post to early. Lets see where it goes from here. Still not as good as UKMO but not too bad

Edited November 24, 2012 by bradythemole

[NickR]

Looks to me that the atlantic low is going to stall and maybe undercut .......... keep watching .........

We're sort of in no-man's land at 150 (Friday) in a very slack E'ly flow.

[Snowman31]

Whats so bad so far? doesn't look that bad to my untrained eyes

[Liam J]

The problem with the 6z is that shortwave developing over N Norway heading towards Svalbard, Arctic high ridging into siberia.

[BOMBHEADS]

the UK met 00z at 120 looks to me like the low off greenland is going to be pushed SE in to France / Spain direction, could open the door to very cold snowy outlook. Of course i'm not an expert, but the logical route for that low is down.

[snowmadchrisuk]

06Z has it all further East - Atlantic makes its presence felt - we lose the colder uppers at 120hrs. Poorer evolution at this stage.

looks fine at 144 hours to me. In fact blocking looks better than 00z and further West

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Friday, uppers crap, but cold and sunny, very frosty nights, not a bad 06Z

[Bobby]

I think the charts this morning are a bit better than last night. The latest important NAEFS anomaly maps look better with blocking a bit stronger to the N and low pressure a bit weaker and further south, meaning the Atlantic is less likely to win out, though I still see this as a strong possibility from day 10. But so far today the trend is better. Uppers are colder too. FI is definitely 120-144 at the moment as it often is.

NAEFS pressure anomalies at day 10:

Plenty of potential there.

[DR(S)NO]

Sorry for a newbie question....but I'm a bit confused.......there have been many good runs in the last few days....yet a poorer run arrives. And it's taken as gospel.Yet surely one of the runs today could be a better run ...and then It's taken as gospel?

Perhaps I'm wrong here. ,but it looks to me as though the models are just struggling to cope with the pattern change.

Many more twists and turns to come,I think.

[NickR]

Sorry for a newbie question....but I'm a bit confused.......there have been many good runs in the last few days....yet a poorer run arrives. And it's taken as gospel.Yet surely one of the runs today could be a better run ...and then It's taken as gospel?

Perhaps I'm wrong here. ,but it looks to me as though the models are just struggling to cope with the pattern change.

Many more twists and turns to come,I think.

Who's taking any run as Gospel?

Edited November 24, 2012 by NickR

[VillagePlank]

Concern must be growing for the SE for tomorrow morning, particularly Kent/E Sussex and on the Downs,

Even Estofex give the SE a mention, now ...

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sat 24 Nov 2012 06:00 to Sun 25 Nov 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Fri 23 Nov 2012 22:52

Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A low pressure area moves from the Bay of Biscay to the NE and crosses S-UK during the overnight hours. Placed beneath a coupled high-level jet configuration, constant strengthening of this feature is likely and even a transient warm-seclusion event may occur during the forecast period. This might insert some uncertainties regarding the final strengthening trend as this one will be a compact system with a chance of rapid pressure fluctuations. Also, with deep WAA forecast, only weak MUCAPE evolves which might induce convectively enhanced rainfall amounts beneath the deformation zone (interesting for those areas, already affected by flooding). However no DMC or electrified convection is expected right now. In addition, we monitor the eastward movement of dry high-tropospheric air towards the back-bent occlusion during the night, which could increase the overall severe wind gust risk (e.g. SE UK during the night). We will watch the area between the occlusion and the backside of the cold front/or triple point for enhanced DMC chances, which would mix severe wind gusts down to the surface.

For the rest of Europe, a quiet November day will be in store (in respect of thunderstorm development). Only W/SW Portugal may see an heavy rain risk with repeatedly onshore moving showers and isolated thunderstorms. The risk remains below our level 1 threshold. I also do not want to exclude an isolated spout event with gradually increasing LL CAPE.

Edited November 24, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[ICETAB]

The 06z is not as good for cold in the same timeframes as the previous run.

IMO we don't want to see perfect charts at this stage, remember the pattern is evolving so perfect charts now may lead to poorer runs nearer real time. I'm confident that we will see colder runs as we go into next week. This year will beat 2010 IMHO.

[NickR]

The 06z is not as good for cold in the same timeframes as the previous run.

Careful! I got shot down for saying as much earlier on!

It does certainly show possibly colder surface conditions, but Thurs/Fri/Sat/Sun are much less wintry than the 00z, as we are in a much slacker flow. It may come later on (no doubt!), but this evolution does still mean that the potential wintry weather is put back from the formlerly more rock-solid "start" date of Friday 30. THat's all I'm saying.

[Mr Frost]

Who's taking any run as Gospel?

It is the same 4 or 5 members who continue to be depressed about each GFS, hence why people never learn.

It is the glass half empty approach that really grates on people. The charts are rare for the end of November, pretty special indeed.

However, certain people keep looking for a breakdown at every opportunity. I do respect everyone's opinion but when it is blatant nonsense it does become tiresome. 95% of the experienced members of this forum have gone into great detail of the forthcoming trend/Northern blocking. (GP, Steve Murr, Lorenzo, Chio and Phil just to name a few)

It looks promising from next weekend and the first stage is to get the cold in, no-one can predict snow chances 2 days in advance never mind a week away.

I really wish certain people could be a little bit more positive about the outlook, especially when all the signs are looking exceptional. I would understand if there was a raging Bartlett or signs of the Atlantic roaring in but there is NOT. So let's see it how it really is. Looking for a breakdown for 384 hours onwards is about as much use as an inflatable dartboard for new members reading this thread.

Edited November 24, 2012 by Mr Frost

[Liam J]

Well the 6z run pretty much follows the 00z with lowering heights and strengthening Polar vortex over Greenland and the Atlantic gears up. Lets hope this trend isn't sustained on future runs.... Better wait to see where the op run sits amongst the ensembles.

Edited November 24, 2012 by Liam J

[bluearmy]

The 06z goes wrong early on. To take this run seriously, you would have to bin all the previous output at an early stage. Exactly.

Bw, bom is ukmo at a lower resolution so its no surprise it looks similar at day 6 and then evolves with a general lack of problematic shortwaves.

[ICETAB]

Careful! I got shot down for saying as much earlier on!

It does certainly show possibly colder surface conditions, but Thurs/Fri/Sat/Sun are much less wintry than the 00z, as we are in a much slacker flow. It may come later on (no doubt!), but this evolution does still mean that the potential wintry weather is put back from the formlerly more rock-solid "start" date of Friday 30. THat's all I'm saying.

The whole run is poor. Its going to be a mild outlier!

[NickR]

It is the same 4 or 5 members who continue to be depressed about each GFS, hence why people never learn.

It is the glass half empty approach that really grates on people. The charts are rare for the end of November, pretty special indeed.

However, certain people keep looking for a breakdown at every opportunity. I do respect everyone's opinion but when it is blatant nonsense it does become tiresome. 95% of the experienced members of this forum have gone into great detail of the forthcoming trend/Northern blocking. (GP, Steve Murr, Lorenzo, Chio and Phil just to name a few)

It looks promising from next week weekend and the first stage is to get the cold in, no-one can predict snow chances 2 days in advance never mind a week away.

I really wish certain people could be a little bit more positive about the outlook, especially when all the signs are looking exceptional. I would understand if there was a raging Bartlett or signs of the Atlantic roaring in but there is NOT. So let's see it how it really is. Looking for a breakdown for 384 hours onwards is about as much use an inflatable dartboard for new members reading this thread.

Well that all does assume that everyone wants snow/cold. Seeing signs of less of such conditions might be a positive to some.

Like I say, I wasn't being "down" or negative, simply stating - as the run has shown - that this is a less wintry run in hi-res (end next week/next weekend). Doesn't mean it'll be right. But it's just about relating what the models are showing - in this case the much-maligned 06z GFS. Realism and honest appraisal is better than either glass half empty OR glass half full IMO.

[MrSunshine]

It's one run, the indications are still for an unsettled week with cold uppers across most of the UK between -2 & -4 and then from late Friday 30th November a real cold blast. Some of the garbage I'm reading on here is quite laughable.

Edited November 24, 2012 by DaveMac82

[Iceaxecrampon]

The whole run is poor. Its going to be a mild outlier!

What - you mean both runs - the 12Z as well hopefully not a trend.

[johnholmes]

comment!

Why don't ALL of you comment about how the charts look to you, give the chart, date/time?

Comment on the interpretation but is it not possible to do it without arguing with one another?

I will post my latest ideas using the anomaly charts in the technical thread shortly, my ideas from last evening are there if anyone wants a read of an ATTEMPT at an unbiased summary of how events look 6-15 days ahead.

Why some of you get so hung up on ONE run and almost always in its less reliable time scale has always puzzled me, new and old members alike.

Edited November 24, 2012 by johnholmes