Model Output Discussion 23/11/2012 18Z onwards

[liam300]

Always could see the Atlantic fighting back somehow, as the models briefly picked up last night. Disappointed by the 0z op as blocking doesn't isn't holding out, leaving gaps. Hopefully runs today will change but could always see this happening especially as the time (fi) would consistently be moving back for a cold event.

Edited November 24, 2012 by liam300

[bobbydog]

Well I wish i'd never just looked at the 00z GFS & ECM runs.... Both show the Atlantic crashing back over our shores, I hope that idea gets dropped today but it is slightly worrying as both models show this one way or another.

GFS op was on the colder side of the ensembles from the 1st - 5th Dec.

thing is mate, we have to put this into perspective- firstly, at this range its still speculation anyway, but lets just say, hypothetically, that the 00z GFS was spot on. it shows a 5 - 6 day spell of cold weather, in the first week of december! it breaks down with the "atlantic crashing back" by the 10th of december. who would have thought we'd even see that so early in winter!

i don't like to compare previous winters as no two are the same. however, remember 2009? if that pattern was to (hypothetically again) repeat itself, we would be having a snowfest at christmas!!

[Liam J]

GEM 00z isn't pretty either, that pesky trough over Europe is causing big headaches as it just holds everything back to the east. We can only hope that it's being modelled incorrectly at this range.

Long way from being resolved yet, the main trend is for northern blocking so lets just focus within T144 to see how things fall into place in coming days. In the short term we have some pretty serious weather on it's way...

Edited November 24, 2012 by Liam J

[Great Plum]

I'm flabbergasted that some people think there maybe a breakdown post 240 hours and that will happen but if there's no breakdown then it's FIand can't be relied on...

Look at the London ensembles from the 0z gfs run...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

It's hardly showing mild is it?

[bobbydog]

perspective again- this time last year, people would have given their right arm to see a chart like this in january-

this is for the 30th of november!!!

oh- and its the UKMO op at +144, not just a random pretty chart.....

Edited November 24, 2012 by bobbydog

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Right ok the gfs does kick the Atlantic into gear in fi, ,when doesn't it? Regarding the ECM , the Atlantic tries to break through but it looks to me a classic undercut scenario , going underneath the.block ? If so that will strengthen the block to our north. The northern blocking isn't so strong on the overnight runs, still there but they aren't what I would call a locked in pattern , but not saying I agree with it as its all fi, regarding the ukmo , it shows the best run of the day synoptic wise, the trough is in France so ties in Well with teleconnections , the gfs in medium term looks good , with a more direct easterly, but not for long time before Atlantic breaks it all down , then creates a big high sat over us to end the run.

[Nick F]

GEM 00z isn't pretty either, that pesky trough over Europe is causing big headaches as it just holds everything back to the east. We can only hope that it's being modelled incorrectly at this range.

Yes, the models are coming out with a range of shapes for the complex low pressure system which will cover much of mainland Europe, with shortwave troughs popping up all over the place rotating around the trough. 00z GFS showing the best scenario wrt to getting the coldest air here keeping low pressure flat over Europe, whereas the ECM has low pressure punching up across Scandinavia, keeping the cold away to the north.

I wouldn't worry too much about the Atlantic breaking through right now, though there is a strong zonal flow shown across N America beneath an elongating vortex over Nern Canada - some of this energy breaking through across the NW Atlantic in FI. Chance that this energy could be transfered further north over Greenland creating a stronger block to our N and NW.

Edited November 24, 2012 by Nick F

[bluearmy]

More evidence this morning why an op run is as useful as any other ens member post day 6 or 7 UNLESS its sitting very well within the ens mean.

As for the atlantic - if it does come back, it will have a bigger struggle than fi shows and that normally means one thing for us if we have surface cold in place. even the poor op fi runs have reloads to follow.

[snow drift]

I'm flabbergasted that some people think there maybe a breakdown post 240 hours and that will happen but if there's no breakdown then it's FIand can't be relied on...

Look at the London ensembles from the 0z gfs run...

http://www.netweathe...;type=ens;sess=

It's hardly showing mild is it?

Having read many of the other posts this morning, I took another look at the output. I resembled one of those inquisitive dogs with their heads going from side to side, thinking eh what am I missing. Looks good to me.

I guess its all down to interpretation.

Your post at least stopped my head going from side to side!!!!!

Edited November 24, 2012 by snow drift

[Continental Climate]

well just when i thought i was getting ok at reading the models i check this thread out and i realise i arent lol!!

My initial thought was that all three models looked better than the 12zs of yesterday http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png!! Not brilliant but still pretty good for the time of year and better than yesterday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif!! Again not awesome but pretty damn good with all that northern blocking and better than yesterdyas i think!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif!! Saving the best until last and pretty spectacular i think you will all agree I will call the UKMO a definite upgrade!!

Why all the despondency i genuinely thought this thread would be buzzing when i checked the models!!!

Oh well back to the drawing board for me

[Ian Brown]

Many solutions on the table and no nearer knowing where we are heading. THE GFS is messy in the medium range and could easily go wrong before the period where the colder uppers reach us. The UKMO represents the best chart of the morning.

[Iceberg]

One factor, although not the only factor is as always the handling of the lp off Newfoundland, compare the storm there at t130-140 on the gfs 18z and 00z, 18 had a vigorous lp system capable of good waa pumping at around 984mb, 00 a very flat feature at just 1004 or so, meto creates a nice sub 1000 system, ECM again not much of one.

A small flatter lp adds more energy to the wrong place in the Atlantic at it moves more west, the fuller system is more still and pushes the energy to Create the arctic circle block.

Until we have consistence here the downstream impacts are very very variable.

[TAFKAP]

Having read many of the other posts this morning, I took another look at the output. I resembled one of those inquisitive dogs with their heads going from side to side, thinking eh what am I missing. Looks good to me.

I guess its all down to interpretation.

Your post at least stopped my head going from side to side!!!!!

So very true. Could people please stop being so negative?! This glass half empty mentality is so severe with many members that it taints their interpretation of the charts, making it more difficult for the less experienced to pick out some grains of truth. There are a few members I genuinely worry about as they are so negative at such a fascinating and exciting model watching time that I fear they are suffering from severe depression.

Get some perspective people! Look at what we were experiencing around this time last year! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2011/Rrea00120111126.gif

The charts and the coming winter are brimming with potential. Cheer up folks, it isn't healthy to have such a negative outlook on life.

[Great Plum]

Having read many of the other posts this morning, I took another look at the output. I resembled one of those inquisitive dogs with their heads going from side to side, thinking eh what am I missing. Looks good to me.

I guess its all down to interpretation.

Your post at least stopped my head going from side to side!!!!!

I'm glad I helped!

I'd like to agree with Continental Climate... Those charts are not bad charts at all for this time of year... I know people are hoping for another December 2010 but that is really unlikely at the moment... The despondency in here is bizarre at times but I have been on here for about 9 years now and have got used to the twists and turns!!

CC, I notice on wetter, that its still the 12z runs and that was what you showed... Has the ECM updated on other sites?

[Gibby]

No time for a report this morning I'm afraid though one I compiled earlier is available on my website but as a hint it is looking rather cold.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 00z mean is still showing an increasingly cold outlook, eventually very cold, also a tendancy for pressure to rise slowly as the main trough drifts towards southeast europe but a huge cold block covering most of mainland europe and the uk. I think the mean would end up bringing coastal wintry showers but inland it would probably become generally dry and sunny but with widespread sharp frosts and freezing fog as the winds become light, beyond that there are indications of an unsettled trend with some kind of cold/mild battle but not until the second week of december but before then it looks like gradually turning colder in the week ahead with N'ly winds freshening and turning more NEly to Ely with time, remaining unsettled across the south and east, eventually a bit drier and brighter further north and west but cold with frosts becoming more widespread and showers turning more to hail, sleet and snow. Speaking of cold, today looks pretty cold with temps close to 6c which is 4-5c below the seasonal average, but more very bad weather will be sweeping in from the southwest with heavy persistent rain spreading north across england and wales, tomorrow the bad weather spreads to scotland but then slowly fragments with a cooler more showery flow pushing down across the uk as next week progresses, still a lot of rain and windy weather for the southeast quarter of the uk during the first half of next week at least (probably most of next week) and turning cooler with some wintry ppn turning up on higher ground as the 850's drop.

Edited November 24, 2012 by Frosty039

[ronan]

Some people really need to chill out!! It's like you get up every morning and try to be the first person to find the bad points in the models! Certain posters always take things at face value and it doesn't help someone like me who is trying to learn and it also doesn't help the MODS who have to sift through all the crap and delete. The trends are still there and the models will chop and change until we get to the more reliable time frame!

[bobbydog]

what we need is for GP to say the words "its going to snow for a week" (even if its not)

half the forum would cheer up, the other half would faint like teenage girls at a One Direction gig!

[lorenzo]

Rollercoaster continues pick your way through this lot this morning.

UKMO / GFS

ECM /GEM

UKMO LP East coast US slower, Arctic High elongates cold across siberia Cold Into Europe

ECM LP US East coast not as deep, Arctic high tilted to stop cold travelling round Siberia ,a complete mess of HP returns over Asia.

GFS slower and deeper with LP East CONUS, Arctic High further North.

GEM slower with LP again Attempts link with Greenland High and Arctic High good half way position.

GEFS Ensemble

Looks like the modelling of that Arctic High over this side and it's positioning wants to throw a hefty spanner in the works, that is in addition to how the lows exiting the eastern US are modelled to initiate the pattern. So almost 2 stages where hefty disagreement can be thrown up by each model.

I agree the UKMO run looks the cleanest solution, the GEM brings in favourable elements, the ECM looks like a dogs breakfast today perhaps it was down the pub last night with the GFS. FI at 96 anyone??

Edited November 24, 2012 by lorenzo

[weather_it_will]

Many solutions on the table and no nearer knowing where we are heading. THE GFS is messy in the medium range and could easily go wrong before the period where the colder uppers reach us. The UKMO represents the best chart of the morning.

This just about sums up this mornings first model runs.

The models keep chopping and changing with no solid agreement, and any real cold getting pushed back all the time.

It is still far too early to know when anything wintry will reach us, and we probably need to wait until mid week.

[NickR]

Your analogy is wrong, more evidence just whittles down the suspect list. If all you had was a partial print, you'd have alot more suspects than if you had a thumbprint and DNA evidence. Which is much the same with the weather, data is essential, if something is missing data than you naturally have to be wary of it's results especially when everything is unpredictable. If it manages to luck into being right with less data, it does not make the idea that less data is more right, it just means that the model was right that time.

With the models being unable to pinpoint anything right now, surely you'd be more confident if a model had more data being fed into it? Rather than confident of something that has less. I just cannot see why anyone would put more stock into the 06z/18z at this very time unless the results it spews out aligns with your own weather bias.

Well, on the hemisphere verification stats, the 18 and 06 are no worse than the others. Steve mentioned that the regional stats showed different. I'm still waiting to see them. And if the difference is not in the order of a fairly big margin, then it is still nonsense to talk about the runs being worthless.

Edited November 24, 2012 by NickR

[bluearmy]

ecm mean looks decent with low spreads across much of the uk. once the cold sets in late in the week, uppers below -5c and thicknesses below 528dam. under what may well be a slack trough, that gives plenty of opportunity for snowfall. its not as if this mean has changed much over the last few days.

[Cloud 10]

The BOM continues to be the

Meteociel - Modèle Numérique australien BOM ACCESS

[Jason H]

Superb runs this morning if you're of a chillier persuasion. The models are all pointing to a cold spell of weather once we get the next 3-4 days worth of rain out of the way. And we're still not even in "proper" winter yet. So much weather going on at the moment.

[IDO]

Some people really need to chill out!! It's like you get up every morning and try to be the first person to find the bad points in the models! Certain posters always take things at face value and it doesn't help someone like me who is trying to learn and it also doesn't help the MODS who have to sift through all the crap and delete. The trends are still there and the models will chop and change until we get to the more reliable time frame!

Yes, we could just discuss the next 48 hours because beyond that there is low confidence, but that's not the point of a model discussion forum. Though I do notice when the op run is a snow fest posts like yours are few and far between. A balance to the ramping that is prevalent on this site in winter is much appreciated. I had to learn from disappointment after disappointment that great cold model runs usually end in abject mediocrity as far as snow/cold goes (not this one I suspect). Now that there are opposing views on the model runs as to what can go wrong I am actually learning, for example short wave interaction et al. As long as the trolls are blocked then I do not understand why you are denigrating other people's views.

However I agree with your views on the OP runs of late, there is no clarity inter-model let alone between models. The ensembles are the best way, at the moment to see where we are going. They are very solid for cold, and there is nothing other than cool/cold on the horizon (15 days+). But the op run, as it is hi-res, is always worth an analysis, as it can provide trends for the more micro changes.