South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ November 24th 2012>

[Guest archiesmummy]

Met office weather warning for essex now

What a tiny bit of Essex!

[anything-but]

Getting hit by that lot here in north kent by gravesend,hammering it down right now.

[Paul Sherman]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/?regionName=se

Not surprised, it really has not let up and has turned my garden into a small pond!

[gottolovethisweather]

With all the hype recently in the build up to the up and coming 'cold spell', I'm left wondering if there is much if anything wintry to look forward for the SE and I'm struggling to see anything more than some sleet from coastal showers in the east. Just hope we can pool enough cold if the Atlantic fronts do move in and perhaps slow and stall to bring some battleground snowfall. But this potential is too far off to say it will occur for now.

Yes, I do tend to agree but how many times have we panicked about a lack of precipitation showing, only to get a decent flow off the North Sea and in come, the streamers. I still think there could be upgrades in the short-term, with the coastal localities getting a nice wintry mix. As for my location, I'll be in no man's land as is normal in these situations. However, surface features can pep up at any time and with the added confusion regarding the weekend, it is certainly an entertaining latter part of the week.

My Maximum Temperatures from the 2100GMT MetO update indicate the following scenario.

Tuesday 8c, Wednesday 6c, Thursday 4c and Friday 3c, so none too shabby IMO.

Edited November 26, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Dexter29]

Didn't even realise it had been raining here until I let the cat in. Quite big puddles so must of been raining hard.

I'm so bored of it now, ah well can pi** it down all night for all I care just as long as the heavier stuff happens while I'm asleep and not during the daytime when I got things to do.

Finally by Wednesday morning the rain should be gone. Good riddance.

At least by the weekend it will start feeling more festive with clearer colder days and frosts at night! My kind of weather, so much better than this boring garbage we have now

[HammerJack]

Good evening all. It's still teeming down here. Been like it for the last hour or so. It's actually quite nice laying in bed listening to the rain beat against the window. 😊

Edited November 26, 2012 by LeighD

[john pike]

heres fridays fax chart

need saturdays chart to update properly

however friday is a cold chart with 528 dam line over the south east

a cold north easterly flow

also a small trough in the north sea mmmmmmmm

Edited November 26, 2012 by john pike

[Vesuvius]

Good evening all. It's still teeming down here. Been like it for the last hour or so. It's actually quite nice laying in bed listening to the rain beat against the window. 😊

Dreadful all this rain. The ground needs to dry out. Or freeze over.

[john pike]

i will do a fax update while waiting for saturday

tonight

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

need the radar. will stop in an hour or 2

depends on where the rain up north decides to go

tomorrow feeling cooler

still showers around some heavy

heavier rain more likely east anglia way

tuesday night

dry chilly north easterly

poss ground frost

wednesday

dry chilly north easterly

6 degrees but cold wind chill

wednesday night

cold

dry

chilly north easterly

poss ground frost

dry and cold

more northerly flow

same as wednesday

friday as above

[Paul Sherman]

heres fridays fax chart

need saturdays chart to update properly

however friday is a cold chart with 528 dam line over the south east

a cold north easterly flow

also a small trough in the north sea mmmmmmmm

Looks like a slack Northerly Flow John to me!

Would expect a rash of Rain and Icy Rain showers to North Norfolk getting wintry as we move into the weekend but nothing much to trouble us down in the SE. Should be some really lovely crisp clear late Autumn / Early Winter days with plenty of Sunshine.

Some decent Frosts at long last as well

[john pike]

saturdays fax is late

Looks like a slack Northerly Flow John to me!

Would expect a rash of Rain and Icy Rain showers to North Norfolk getting wintry as we move into the weekend but nothing much to trouble us down in the SE. Should be some really lovely crisp clear late Autumn / Early Winter days with plenty of Sunshine.

Some decent Frosts at long last as well

hi paul zoom inmate

the south east hold onto the the north easterly

only just though

[Eskimo]

saturdays fax is late

hi paul zoom inmate

the south east hold onto the the north easterly

only just though

Been updated John.

[john pike]

hi perfect

cannot get it on the ukmom site at present

[Great Plum]

Try...

It's a goodun!

[john pike]

hi gp

thanks

update when the larger version shows

that is better than i was expecting

[Team Jo]

This rain has been parked over us here for a good few hours now.... Relentless!!

[john pike]

this shows a cold north easterly

528 dam line covers nearly the whole of the uk

the low to our north west has moved more north

i still think our east block looks strong

what happens next?

ian ferguson on mod thread said was not sure about weekend as well

i can see why

Edited November 27, 2012 by john pike

[Paul Sherman]

saturdays fax is late

hi paul zoom inmate

the south east hold onto the the north easterly

only just though

Hi John

I dont doubt the origin at the end of the day is from the North East, but we have seen this type of chart at least 30 times in the 9 years Netweather has been going and that type of chart means 1 thing, showers affecting Norfolk of a wintry nature (Mainly Rain and Icy Rain) and dying a death as they move south near Norwich, barely making Bury St Edmonds. I have a hunch the Meto is right and that after a brief warm up (If you can call it that with temps upto 6c and 7c late Sunday and Monday we will hold onto Northern Blocking and the better goods will arrive later in December.

I hope I am proved wrong and we see some of the white stuff this weekend but currently I am 5 - 95% against at present, anyways Yamkin has not been on here yet so my money is safe

[john pike]

hi paul

see where your coming from

however couple more runs could see everything moved further west

we will see

[Dean E]

this shows a cold north easterly

528 dam line covers nearly the whole of the uk

the low to our north east has moved more north

i still think our east block looks strong

what happens next?

ian ferguson on mod thread said was not sure about weekend as well

i can see why

One thing I can see from the 500mb models is that, its fairly confident that this blocking pattern is going to stick around, so we have further opportunities at a cold blast. With not a case of 'when will the Atlantic attact and win' but a 'When will the block break down'.

Its just the models, especially the GFS are in a difficult phase, trying to model the 'blocking pattern' as well as over factors. We shall need to see what tomorrow brings in that sense.

Me personally, is completely disbelieving the weekend model output at the moment as its such a mess, but looking further on and gaining some averages from over charts and seeing what that brings.

Its an interesting time for model watching either way, with some much potential available. MUCH better than Winter 2011/12...

SM

[john pike]

fridays ukmo chart

fridays fax chart

not too much difference

be nice if this is correct

however it may be dry

no one knows at present

[Mark Neal.]

Good Evening Interesting model watching today, all is not lost just yet and some good signals for heading into December, as case of if you don't succeed first, you will get another chance not before to long springs to mind!

Anyway an area of rain arrived this afternoon and was heavy for a while, since that cleared we have had rain on/off. River Cherwell in Oxford has flooded over and Magadalen College & Nearby fields are under water here. River Thames is very high up in Oxford too, with various flood warnings in place, local streams are now looking more like rivers, not good at all.. Bring on the dry conditions!

[john pike]

gfs ensembles are certainly cold up to the 3rd

which shows a jump but also there is a spread there of about 7 degrees

so fi on the 3rd

good news tomorrow looks wet but dry weather to about the 1st after that

i am off for a couple of these now

Edited November 27, 2012 by john pike

[john pike]

Good Evening Interesting model watching today, all is not lost just yet and some good signals for heading into December, as case of if you don't succeed first, you will get another chance not before to long springs to mind!

Anyway an area of rain arrived this afternoon and was heavy for a while, since that cleared we have had rain on/off. River Cherwell in Oxford has flooded over and Magadalen College & Nearby fields are under water here. River Thames is very high up in Oxford too, with various flood warnings in place, local streams are now looking more like rivers, not good at all.. Bring on the dry conditions!

hi mark

after tomorrow afternoon it looks dry for about 3 or 4 days

fingers crossed

[Mark Neal.]

hi mark

after tomorrow afternoon it looks dry for about 3 or 4 days

fingers crossed

Indeed i am very lucky i live on High Ground, just to the East of the city, but on the way to work this afternoon i saw lots of flooded fields and rivers swollen not a good sign, looked similar to July 2007, which was horrendous in these parts along with other areas.