South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ November 24th 2012>

[Snowangel-MK]

Stock up on mince pies everyone, this is the one!

....and Mulled Wine

[Mrsf16]

Is the prozac out yet? xxx

[abruzzi spur]

Every time I see an apostrophe error on the MOD, I reset the computers to zonal!

Those errors drive me nut's ('drive me nut's what?', I hear you ask, sounds pretty uncomfortable)

My other fave from there is 'varify' which actually suits the thread really well - is it vary or is it verify?!

Probably best to stop there...

A'S

[Ben_Cambs]

In this post, I'm going to try and look at the differences between the main three models between T+72 and T+144:

UKMO T+72: http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm721.gif

GFS T+72: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn721.png

ECM T+72: http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm721.gif

No differences to note at this point. Synoptics wise, light northerly wind and turning increasingly colder by day and night, though generally overcast.

UKMO T+96: http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm961.gif

GFS T+96: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn961.png

ECM T+96: http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm961.gif

On UKMO, winds turning more NE'ly though at this point on ECM and GFS the wind direction is still a N'ly/NNW'ly. The main focus point is the deep area of LP near the SW tip of Greenland.

UKMO T+120: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif

GFS T+120: http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1201.png

ECM T+120: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif

Main difference to note is the position of the LP off Greenland. UKMO maintains the LP in a very similar position to the T+96 chart, helping to maintain the ridge in the Atlantic. ECM maintains the LP very slightly further east than UKMO, and is putting the heights around Greenland under more pressure. GFS shows the much weakened LP (compared to UKMO and ECM) coming up against the ridge off the tip of Greenland. Another difference is the wind direction, UKMO puts us in a ENE/NE'ly flow, GFS and ECM put us in a NNW'ly flow. UKMO would provide much colder weather, (with an increasing risk of snow) than the other two models. ECM and GFS would provide colder than average conditions, though not as cold as UKMO.

UKMO T+144: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

GFS T+144: http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png

ECM T+144: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif

NW Model comparison tool: http://www.netweathe...modelcomp;sess=

UKMO is the notable stand out at this timeframe, maintaining a cold flow of air and certainly a risk of snow. GFS and ECM at this timeframe do have the colder air clinging on in this region. ECM has the Azores high approaching from the SW and LP approaching from the NW, while GFS shows LP encroaching from the NW.

Some major differences that are likely to be resolved in the next couple of days. We can hope that the UKMO model, which has been very consistent of late, is correct and that we have an increasingly wintry picture towards the weekend!

Edited November 26, 2012 by Ben_Cambs

[Great Plum]

Those errors drive me nut's ('drive me nut's what?', I hear you ask, sounds pretty uncomfortable)

My other fave from there is 'varify' which actually suits the thread really well - is it vary or is it verify?!

Probably best to stop there...

A'S

Stella run? Sounds like a last minute dash to the off licence...

[Keraunic]

According to the 'Will It' forecasts there's a 52% chance of thunder in Naaaaarich tomorrow. I tell you this, if it thunders tomorrow here, in Norwich...I'll eat my Tudor bonnet.

[Jason T]

For anyone wanting to learn or even enhance your knowledge (Beginners like me) or above.

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/140

[essex coast matt]

Lots of heavy rain in chelmsford ,east london area lookng at radar be problams soon if carrys on,still dry here,reports of thunder in east suffolk on twitter just now??

[NO LONGER POSTING]

That lot in London ain't goona spin round and come back is it -.- I got my eye on that lot up north if that comes back down well.. The Thames as had it tbh...

[Keraunic]

Very heavy rain in Ipswich at mo. But according to my source no thunder.....yet. :o

[john pike]

http://forum.netweat...2/page__st__340

check my fax report from last night

now coast can verify this that gfs did not predict this rain earlier

this is a good sign for the weekend ?

hope so

http://www.severe-weather.co.uk/

hopefully we only get a glancing blow from that lot up north

Edited November 26, 2012 by MKsnowangel
Double Post

[Me & angel fiance]

Wish i could do the same.. but its pointless, i now have one of them new energy saving lamp posts out side my house, which has now moved across the street, which is also nowhwere near as bright or good as the old one, which also dims during the night when everybodys asleep, spotting snowflakes in it is pretty damn hard. does anybody know where i can get hold (or knick) one of them batman spotlights?

aaggh just realised they bought in a new power saving thing round here earlier this year and all streetlamps in our area are off by midnight latest.. ummm maybe need to rethink how I am going to manage my lampost watching this winter.

Edited November 26, 2012 by Hearts in Herts

[john pike]

sorry about double post

computer went mad

[Methuselah]

Those errors drive me nut's ('drive me nut's what?', I hear you ask, sounds pretty uncomfortable)

My other fave from there is 'varify' which actually suits the thread really well - is it vary or is it verify?!

Probably best to stop there...

A'S

At least said goodbye to 'burification'!

[Keraunic]

aaggh just realised they bought in a new power saving thing round here earlier this year and all streetlamps in our area are off by midnight latest.. ummm maybe need to rethink how I am going to manage my lampost watching this winter.

Same here in Norwich. Ah, but I think there's one at front of house which stays on as its a main road. But that means rushing up to the landing to watch.

[john pike]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2238603/Frozen-waves-blue-ice-photographed-Tony-Travouillon.html

some nice pictures on there

and no, i am not ramping

[Eskimo]

http://www.dailymail...ravouillon.html

some nice pictures on there

and no, i am not ramping

These pictures were taken years ago, story published just today lol

[Nick F]

With all the hype recently in the build up to the up and coming 'cold spell', I'm left wondering if there is much if anything wintry to look forward for the SE and I'm struggling to see anything more than some sleet from coastal showers in the east. Just hope we can pool enough cold if the Atlantic fronts do move in and perhaps slow and stall to bring some battleground snowfall. But this potential is too far off to say it will occur for now.

[Snowangel-MK]

aaggh just realised they bought in a new power saving thing round here earlier this year and all streetlamps in our area are off by midnight latest.. ummm maybe need to rethink how I am going to manage my lampost watching this winter.

[80sWeather]

900 Users on MOD, is that a record?

[essex coast matt]

Nearly 20mm of rain since midnight in parts of essex most of that this eve,messy drivetime in morn think,only light rain here.

[snowbob]

All gone Pete tong in the mod thread

Woops

Edited November 26, 2012 by snowbob

[Paul Sherman]

It really has thrown it down for the last 2-3 hours, roads like rivers here in SE Essex! Much more to come still as the Low pulls everything South Eastwards as it moves away into the Southern North Sea

[john pike]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

low still spinning around london

south west looks a bit iffy at present as well

[essex coast matt]

Met office weather warning for essex now