Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward

[dallas]

Has to be really difficult for the professional forecasters to decipher all this model mayhem, but I suppose it's not something new to them. Where does FI start now.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I agree with this UKMO does look closer to the NAM. The ECM will be very interesting later.

The problem is that we can't view them all on the same chart, and even the GFS on weatheronline has 1mb isobars, with NAM on 2mb and UKMO 4mb, so trying to make direct comparisons isn't easy.

[swfc]

To be fair i think the"bbc 24 hour news weather forecast"is the way i may go!!!!You would have to say in all probability that the ukmo will jump too the ecm and gfs just on the combo of them two alone.That said what do i or anyone on here know,not a lot app.

Edited November 26, 2012 by swfc

[Snowy Easterlies]

GEM is pretty poor too tbh although slightly better than yesterdays

edit scrap that GEM is woeful in FI

Edited November 26, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Jupiters Winter]

So as it stands - UKMO and a bit of NOGAPS VS the rest of the world... Is The Euro to bail out UKMO or is the UKMO to take the Euro.. an hour to go...

[LomondSnowstorm]

Ok, I think I've found a better site for this comparison malarkey:

NAM:

GFS:

Very clearly a difference there.

Note: that doesn't mean UKMO's necessarily right just because it's closer to the NAM, it just means it's found a friend.

Edited November 26, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[Snowy Easterlies]

GFS control run backs the op

oh dear, UKMO will either be king or it will be crucified and lose all credibility

Edited November 26, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[LomondSnowstorm]

GFS control run backs the op

oh dear, UKMO will either be king or it will be crucified and ditched to cannon fodder

No it won't, people always say that after a model gets it wrong but it's nonsense, I mean we still value the GFS and it's had egg on its face more times than I can remember.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes the GFS ensemble mean is a lot more westerly than the 18z at 168 hours. Ominous signs now....the PV looks far more organised too on the 00z mean. I really don't know what to say other than I foresaw this situation 2 days ago and that's already been said. Up until 36 hours or so ago the UKMO had been so inconsistent 120-144 hours. Now it may be consistent but consistently wrong?!

[Snowy Easterlies]

No it won't, people always say that after a model gets it wrong but it's nonsense, I mean we still value the GFS and it's had egg on its face more times than I can remember.

true you have a point, dunno why i said that, im just a bit peed of with these models right now

[swfc]

The odd thing is all the talk has been about"shortwaves"and the way it was going to hold back or delay the real cold and then we have an atlantic low blowing it out off the water.Tanking nao and incredible northern blocking or not 24 hours seems to be fi at the moment.Can i also add if anyone says"look to the trend and 500mb charts"i will be around with a small hand gun!!!

[Jupiters Winter]

As many twists and turns, can the ECM do a reversal in favour of the UKMO. If not then back to T180 plus for trends and signals I suppose.

[Snowy Easterlies]

Yes the GFS ensemble mean is a lot more westerly than the 18z at 168 hours. Ominous signs now....the PV looks far more organised too on the 00z mean. I really don't know what to say other than I foresaw this situation 2 days ago and that's already been said. Up until 36 hours or so ago the UKMO had been so inconsistent 120-144 hours. Now it may be consistent but consistently wrong?!

yeah the ensembles are shocking it may as well be winter 2011 again, all these supposed good signals on the strat thread im reading so what is going wrong ?

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEFS ensemble mean at 162 hours....

[LomondSnowstorm]

true you have a point, dunno why i said that, im just a bit peed of with these models right now

That's understandible, I had the same reaction when I first saw the GFS come out. UKMO's refusal to budge, given its frequently cited role as 'spoiler' in cold setups, is maybe worth something though, given that if the entire model situation was reversed and the UKMO was the only one showing westerlies we'd still be tempted to give that solution credibility?

[Snowy Easterlies]

there is no uglier site than the PV ramping up and Azores high ridging in, i hope for anything but this, even anticyclonic gloom i would take

we always get the same old synpotics,

Edited November 26, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Jupiters Winter]

GFS Ensembles anyone?

Edit/ As the 18z Ensembles were very consistent.

Edited November 26, 2012 by Jupiters Winter

[Cheshire Freeze]

yeah the ensembles are shocking it may as well be winter 2011 again, all these supposed good signals on the strat thread im reading so what is going wrong ?

Our luck just isn't in at the moment. I think the models have been overplaying the vortex split and subsequent height rises to our north. Successive runs have severely limited height rises as we've come closer to the time scale that they were advertised to occur. We have been reliant on wave breaking to quell the effects of a colder than usual strat which has thus relied on synoptics falling into place to deliver the required blow to the vortex. Obviously as we've neared the 'event' these synoptics haven't quite come together at this time to produce us the goods. I'm not saying this is going to be a perpetual trend but for the moment it looks a good shout.

As for warming of the strat, I've not been 'on the ball' with the up to the minute happenings but my understanding is we are still running below average temp wise in the upper strat and no signifficant warming has occurred yet, despite it being forecast towards FI. Personally, and possibly quite controversially, I can't see where we are going to see a cold period (with snow) come from in the next couple of weeks TBH,especially is we continue to see modelling of vortex energy across the North Atlantic sector.

One positive is that we continue to see the Kamchatka ridge modelled which should serve to keep the flow amplified enough at times across the NH so that we stand the chance of some brief northerly outbreaks throughout December at least. Perhaps something more significant IF we can get enough amplification to the flow.

Edited November 26, 2012 by CreweCold

[swfc]

there is no uglier site than the PV ramping up and Azores high ridging in, i hope for anything but this, even anticyclonic gloom i would take

we always get the same old synpotics,

One of the things you will probably learn on here is that you get easily sucked into the hype ete.only yesterday folk were discussing snow depths and min night temps of -18?????At the moment none of them charts and comments look like even getting here!!!!!All will be revealed in the next hour.The point of no return on ecm will be the 72-96 hour mark. Edited November 26, 2012 by swfc

[Jonan92]

So it's game over for the blocking of the following weekend

[Snowy Easterlies]

agree crewe cold, people say that the models always underestimate northern blocking that is not always the case

infact this is about the third time this autumn that blocking hasn;t really made it properly to greenland, before it topples over us

i may have a short memory but when was the last time we had a proper arctic blast ? and i don;t mean that half baked attempt in october, we can't even get a northerly toppler now

2010 and 2009 were proper cold spells but i remember us getting lots of topplers before that even in novembers

Edited November 26, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[swfc]

So it's game over for the blocking of the following weekend

The blocking has not really set up to any major degree and has always been a bit lightweight with its push towards greenland.So unless there is a move back on the various outputs the atlantic looks like steaming in and blowing it away

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm not willing to do a post mortem until the ECM comes out when all it would take is a more favourably aligned trough coming out of CONUS at +72 hours to change everything again. I'm not holding out for it by any means but it's not a foregone conclusion.

[Snowy Easterlies]

yep best wait till ECM comes out, if it backs the UKMO is it game on again or just another false dawn ?

[LomondSnowstorm]

yep best wait till ECM comes out, if it backs the UKMO is it game on again or just another false dawn ?

Absolutely game on, at that point the UKMO becomes the favoured option. But that's pretty unlikely