Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward

[Jupiters Winter]

UKMO tilting ???

EDIT: A total difference to GFS infact it seems as an upgrade from UKMO....... Whats going on ,,,,,

Edited November 26, 2012 by Jupiters Winter

[LomondSnowstorm]

UKMO keeps the faith:

Wasn't expecting that at all!

[The Eagle]

WTF?

[Wilxy]

UKMO has kept this consistancy for a while now.

[Zenarcher]

Really surprised to see the UKMO still disagree and keep some hope alive. NOGAPS sticks with the UKMO as well.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I think if the ECM looks like it did at the 12Z stage it'd be hard to argue with it. However, if it moves towards the UKMO then we might just have a game on here.

[swfc]

Well at only eleven days away we have a northerly heading our way!!!!!!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Once again the cold finds us, even on the GFS:

[Cheshire Freeze]

If ECM backtracks towards the UKMO now I think I'll give up!

[Snowy Easterlies]

you couldn't make it up the UKMO does not follow the GFS and ECM

the saga continues

these models are baffling

Edited November 26, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Jupiters Winter]

I DONT WANT IT ,,,, Go away

Once again the cold finds us, even on the GFS:

[Zakos]

Its not over yet -

I was expecting the UKMO to fall in line with the ECM. it has not. most interstering.

It is safe to say, that todays 12zs will be very tense to watch unfold, they really are crucial. I think the UKMO does have more energy going east, but the block holds steadfast, and overpowers the low.

I still think that this is the scenario that will play out, the AO is simply too negative for a westerly flow.

I have to disagree with those writing off the cold spell. Whilst we have certainly taken a step back, we cannot write off a cold spell which the UKMO is still showing. It has been very consistent with this idea.

Edited November 26, 2012 by Zakos

[LomondSnowstorm]

If ECM backtracks towards the UKMO now I think I'll give up!

That would be just about the strangest thing in model watching history. But I'm not so sure now, the GFS can do some crazy things, but surely not crazy enough to shift from consistently on the right solution to the wrong one at such a close timeframe?

[Wilxy]

I can't wait to see what the ECM comes up with.

[The Eagle]

A "no" from the GEM

http://meteociel.com/modeles/geme_cartes.php

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm going to get the NAM out again and see if I can decipher which of these look more plausible:

So according to the high res model we have a 1000mb elongated low stretched south-southwest.

Which of these two does it look like most?

[Jupiters Winter]

NOGAPS from 72H to 180H has majority of the UK under -4 and lower at times......

[Snowy Easterlies]

Well at only eleven days away we have a northerly heading our way!!!!!!

haha shock horror heights fail to make it greenland and the ridge topples same old story but that deep FI anyway

UKMO not backing down but maybe it will finally admit defeat on the 12z ?? block might collapse if it went past T144

[swfc]

Thats at 300 hrs and this run as just totally rearanged the northern hemisphere since the pub run???

Once again the cold finds us, even on the GFS:

[LomondSnowstorm]

I think, on first glance, the NAM is a bit closer to the UKMO than the GFS. The GFS looks slightly undercooked compared to the other two and has it slightly too far north east, but there's not much in it. Wait for the ECM.

The PV never really manages to establish, certainly not over Greenland, and I haven't see a chart with the PV reforming properly over Greenland in at least a week I reckon.

[PolarWarsaw]

I think the ECM has picked up on the differences regarding the low pressure, the GFS 12z and 18z stuck to their guns, this morning the GFS has caught up and conformed to the ECM. The UKMO will probably come round on today's 12z/tommorrows 0z.

Hope I'm wrong - but IMO we've been chart chasing for 3 weeks and no real 'cold' sufficient for snow has got closer than t144. As far as I'm concerned this year unless cold is t72 and less the cold is still very dicey and awaiting a shortwave disaster. Probably best everyone applies that mentally to save the Prozac rearing it's head.

[Snowy Easterlies]

mods going to be angry when they wake up as they will probably delete most of our posts lol

[summer blizzard]

So to sum up..

12z - ECWMF+JMA vs everybody else

0z - GFS (so far) vs UKMO+GEM

[Zenarcher]

I think, on first glance, the NAM is a bit closer to the UKMO than the GFS. The GFS looks slightly undercooked compared to the other two and has it slightly too far north east, but there's not much in it. Wait for the ECM.

I agree with this UKMO does look closer to the NAM. The ECM will be very interesting later.

[Snowy Easterlies]

I think the ECM has picked up on the differences regarding the low pressure, the GFS 12z and 18z stuck to their guns, this morning the GFS has caught up and conformed to the ECM. The UKMO will probably come round on today's 12z/tommorrows 0z.

Hope I'm wrong - but IMO we've been chart chasing for 3 weeks and no real 'cold' sufficient for snow has got closer than t144. As far as I'm concerned this year unless cold is t72 and less the cold is still very dicey and awaiting a shortwave disaster. Probably best everyone applies that mentally to save the Prozac rearing it's head.

yep agree mate if the ECM sticks to its guns the UKMO will have to back down

the GFS is hideous lets be honest