Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward

[Snowy Easterlies]

Good news its gone with the UKMO raw output:

http://www.meteociel...fax/fax120s.gif

don't they always back the UKMO though regardless ?

[weatherguy]

The low at the tip of greenland at 168 hrs is deepening rapidly.hmmmm

Looks like high pressure might be drawn up behind it though?

[ukpaul]

I could swear there's a dog staring at me in this one.

[Met4Cast]

I wouldn't worry about anything beyond T144, worrying about a low pressure system at T168 isn't worth the energy.

The important thing is that the GFS has NOT sided with the ECM, it handles the Canada low a lot better than the ECM and thats the reason we see colder air making it to the UK on the 18z.

ECM will hopefully backtrack tomorrow.

[EML Network]

Thought I would lighten the mood (sorry it this is off topic)

the GFS 18z gives us a wink over Scandi, looks terrified over Greenland , and we even get a fish in the charts ;-)

[Continental Climate]

I could swear there's a dog staring at me in this one.

Good spot mate its like a devil dog about to destroy the uk with record breaking cold

[johnholmes]

don't they always back the UKMO though regardless ?

so much for the 90% certainty I saw quoted that it would follow the ECMWF!

[Geordiesnow]

The faxes always seem to follow the UKMO's output no matter what, I know this debate has occured before but whenever I see people using the fax charts, it always seem to be it follows the UKMO's raw output.

GFS still sends the trough from europe into scandi though, which does end up in a Northerly so if the UKMO does back down, then I hope at least its just turning it from an easterly to a Northerly thanks to the trough and nothing like the ecm!

[pyrotech]

I could swear there's a dog staring at me in this one.

Yes i agree, its a sign, that dog is a husky and will be perfect pulling the sledge.

Sorry Mods if bit off topic but its talking about the models and i know you like a little harmless humour

[johnholmes]

For me it says 29th hasn't updated yet. 120 hours is the 30th.

issued at 2208 on 25 Nov

[Zenarcher]

Met Office stick with their model with the fax charts,

120 hours

[Tim Bland]

I tend to trust the GFS when it is consistent and today it has been. Fax follows ukmo raw output 100% of the time, it always has. Anyone who says it doesn't then please give me an example because I can never remember a time when it hasn't. Makes me laugh every year when people announce it has followed the ukmo. It's like announcing the pope is Catholic. I ask every year why they bother drawing the fax charts at all! Great GFS hope ECM comes back on board

[peterf]

lol funny couple of posts.

[dragan]

Can anyone verify what models wobbled and what models came out on top in the last two cold spells, 2010?

[camiscool]

dodgy FI

[Isolated Frost]

FAX keeps it up- 528dm line nearby, and a trough off the east of the UK in a N/NNE flow- good stuff.

[Downburst]

don't they always back the UKMO though regardless ?

No they don't always. There is a team of many qualified people putting forecasts together. It's far from a question of an internet connection and free access to the Numerical Predictions Models. Very far.

[snowy36]

I was watching the GFS come out on the Noaa site and it was intresting watching that Low presure develop in the US, I'd like to think that the US( gfs) has it right, the I8z was almost the same path as the 12z, it might move a bit in the next few days but i can't believe it will follow the ECW path, i think the GFS has that bit right, the rest of the run who knows.

[Duane S.]

This is the sort of 'half way house' I mentioned earlier. We should probably take it as there would be a second shot at ridging of the AH from what the 18z shows. Albeit maybe more west-based.

That aside, it still leaves the door open to getting the setup in place on the first shot so all in all the best we could have hoped for after the ECM and its suite.

[Eskimo]

dodgy FI

Don't worry about that, the GFS has a habit of flattening things out.

[in the vale]

Posted this in the dying seconds of the previous MOD thread. Now the 18z is out, thought worth reposting for the benefit of the excited and nervous amongst you:-

So, we have the ECM suggesting PV reforming by 120 and swallows returning by 240. Or we don't, as per MO and to a large degree GFS. The bigger picture has not changed, December was always going to be a turning point for this winter, not winter as a whole. I remain confident that 12/13 winter will go down as a good'un, not 2010 or 62/63, but we'll all be pretty happy come spring. The short-term synoptics and the global patterns are rarely in agreement in situations such as this, but the longer term NH picture (as GP, JH, OMM, Frosty, Chio and many others study and helpfully report on for those bothered to read) remain strong for a colder than average winter. Witness the chopping & changing of all the major deterministic models - at any time of year this is a strong indicator that the meteorological physics engines are struggling with the signals presented to them. I would not (and haven't for the last 2 weeks) believed a single chart from any of them. Trust the bigger picture people, then you won't be downhearted every time lower slightly Greenie heights are shown or an unfavorable shortwave pops up. You - yes YOU - are very likely to get cold and snowed on this winter, enjoy it and smile when it does. Look at the models that produced it and learn for next year. Honestly, that's all we can do.

Edited November 25, 2012 by in the vale

[Bristawl Si]

FAX keeps it up- 528dm line nearby, and a trough off the east of the UK in a N/NNE flow- good stuff.

Almost looks like a stand-off! With UK in the middle mediating.

[nick sussex]

MAJOR BREAKING NEWS FROM THE USA!

The final bulletin from our USA correspondent, remember this is not computer generated but done by the duty forecaster having looked at all of todays outputs including that nauseating ECM!

Take a look at whats near Nova Scotia on day 4 then enjoy the rest:

Day 5

Day 6

Lets hope for an ECM backtrack tomorrow.

[NorthernRab]

dodgy FI

Has there ever not been?

[Mark Bayley]

dodgy FI

Some fantastic charts for the North and Midlands! There will be many changes however so would not worry

Edited November 25, 2012 by Mark Bayley