Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward

[MR EXTREMES]

nogaps not bad either.

[Chris D]

Fairly impressive consistency between last night and tonight's GFS 18Z, considering the wider model uncertainty:

Yes, unusual consistency from the GFS recently?

[Snowman31]

when do the fax charts come out?

[nick sussex]

More news the NOGAPS 18hrs which looked as depressing as the ECM has now switched on its 18hrs output.

Its now developed the Canadian low more and looks more like the GFS. We all know its not up to much but hey at this timeframe any good news is welcome!

[Bristawl Si]

At this rate Alton Towers will be out of business!

[nick sussex]

when do the fax charts come out?

Good news its gone with the UKMO raw output:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

[Earth Wind and Snow]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

In the interest of fact the Irish Met use a couple of modesl. ""... Output from a number of computer models of the atmosphere is also analysed by the forecasters. For forecasts out to 48 hours ahead, our own HIRLAM is the primary guidance model. Beyond 2 days the ECMWF is the normally preferred model. To help in the very short range and nowcast range, displays of a number of modern weather radars and of METEOSAT and NOAA satellites are important tools for the forecaster.""

'Beyond 2 days the ECMWF is the normally preferred model'.

As you say ECM is used 'beyond 2 days' and this is why I have often seen MET Eireanns longer range forecasts 'flip' as per each ECM run.

I accept your point that they use their own model for up to 48 hours and that they analyse other models - from experience and I am an avid weather follower I have seen them with egg on their faces many times by forecasting what ECM models show even when ECM is out of kilter with other models

18z by the way is backing UKMO

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

EWS

Edited November 25, 2012 by Earth Wind and Snow

[Ian Brown]

Ian you have to be a bit confused as I know you use the GFS as your guide-

Its a very rare occasion to have the GFS + UKMO against the ECM-

Maybe its that rare occasion where the ECM is wrong- it has wobbled before in cold spells- especially around western greenland-

S

Yes I do use the GFS as my primary guide - but we have been around a long time and seen many situations go breasts up. I've always backed the GFS with cyclogenesis off Greenland/Iceland.

[Isolated Frost]

FAX charts come out about 10:45 folks-

gfs 18z still on hand as expected- higher pressure but similar uppers from a uk pov (considering upstream the similarities are striking)- excellent for snow across northern and eastern parts

[shuggee]

when do the fax charts come out?

Here you go snowman:

http://forum.netweat...t-update-times/

[xioni]

very good run so far

our ridge is getting very squeezed at 156h and we need the new trough to disrupt again.

That's the problem with a much flatter N.American pattern we need all these troughs passing south of Greenland to disrupt and re-enforce our blocking high, if any of them goes through east then the cold spell soon ends

[Zenarcher]

Good news its gone with the UKMO raw output:

http://www.meteociel...fax/fax120s.gif

For me it says 29th hasn't updated yet. 120 hours is the 30th.

[lorenzo]

GFS applies the brakes and leaves us all waiting on the 00z.. good work pub run.

This week has been simply amazing for model watching from Monday 00z til Sunday 18z we have seen dream charts, wobbles, mental outliers, more shortwaves than you can imagine, the rare beast that is an Arctic high, cross polar flow, Greenland shredding of lows. Vortex shredding, Wave 1 waxing and waning, Wave 2 waxing and waning, GP excellence in predicting GWO coming to fruition, MJO stalled where everyone wants it predicating - NAO, easterlies galore progged and a shredded vortex.

Mr Terence says game over, Mr Murr says it's in the lap of the gods and off we go again on the 18z .. Best of all IT IS NOVEMBER 25th !!

[Matty M]

Does the 18z offer a 'sort of' halfway house?

A middle ground that wouldn't be too bad. We really want to see low heights re-progged over Iberia so that Atlantic high can't build in to our south.

[Ice Day]

Some good news NOGAPS 18z run has backed away from the ECM and moved over to agree with the GFS and UKMO,

Jesus wept, this is turning into a Brian Rix farce! The volatility within the models is incredible.........with the exception of the UKMO. It has been extremely consistent over the last week or so, please let it be right in the end!!!!!

[Continental Climate]

Good news its gone with the UKMO raw output:

http://www.meteociel...fax/fax120s.gif

Some more good news from a coldies perspective there nick the faxes are going to be increasingly important now as we enter the 96 - 120 timeframe!! If the ECM is wrong ( which i believe it is) it is almost unheard of

[cyclonic happiness]

Well let's just hope the pendulum s swung back in the favour of cold now.

But at least we'll be able to sleep well tonight.

I bet the ECM flips back over the next two to three days, it does seem to take the longest to fall in line doesn't it?

[JP1972]

Shuggee clearly taking Movember very seriously

[snowice]

884 users can breath a sigh of relieve!

Edited November 25, 2012 by snowice

[OldMetMan]

Great to see your views on this OMM, keep them coming please over the coming, no doubt very fraught, days of chart viewing!

Thanks s4lancia, much appreciated. I find the fact that the GFS has kept to the same story in the long term quite striking, when quite often it will revert to a default zonal flow. But a couple more days should clarify things.

[MR EXTREMES]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=102&code=0&mode=0&carte=1

so at t168 what would that feature be at the southern tip of greenland be is this feature likely to cause us a problem?

[swfc]

The low at the tip of greenland at 168 hrs is deepening rapidly.hmmmm

[Mark Bayley]

Although not a model i would normally use, the NOGAPS has backed away from its 12z output (which supported the ECM) towards the GFS and UKMO

[Jonan92]

Brazilian model also supports the blocking

[Panayiotis]

The low at the tip of greenland at 168 hrs is deepening rapidly.hmmmm

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=1

so at t168 what would that feature be at the southern tip of greenland be is this feature likely to cause us a problem?

Isnt it a good thing? Will it not send the high pressure northwards?