Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward

[Snowy Easterlies]

straight away at first glance and GFS backs down, ECM wins

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

yet again all this hype for nothing, FI cold blast will show up i guess

Edited November 26, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Wilxy]

Now that the GFS is starting to agree with ECM, what will the UKMO do now?

[Zenarcher]

Well the GFS at 108 hours positions the low in the same place as the ECM. Will be interesting to see what the other models are going to do like the UKMO.

[Snowy Easterlies]

heights are completely gone from Greenland what a difference this run is

its a myth that models underestimate blocking that isn't always true

[LomondSnowstorm]

So all of the Fax charts, NOAA guidance, UKMO, a week of solid composites and the NAEFS are all wrong? Staggering.

[Wilxy]

UKMO will be very important now, and it will be intresting whether it keeps its consistancy or finally agree that its not going to happen, intresting times.

[swfc]

So all of the Fax charts, NOAA guidance, UKMO, a week of solid composites and the NAEFS are all wrong? Staggering.

You coudnt write it could you.All ive been hearing is stick with the 500mb charts and the trend????????

[Duncan McAlister]

The fat lady hasn't sung yet but she's warming up, at least as far as next weekend goes. The odds are stacked against there is still hope as long as the UKMO 00z hangs onto the cold spell.

[Cheshire Freeze]

So all of the Fax charts, NOAA guidance, UKMO, a week of solid composites and the NAEFS are all wrong? Staggering.

It happens unfortunately

[Snowy Easterlies]

these models make us look like mugs, all this hype for nothing, the current GFS couldn't be more bland

anyway bright side is its still not even winter yet

[LomondSnowstorm]

It happens unfortunately

I know, but I mean it makes you wonder what on earth the point of the last 10 days of following the whole thing through were when at the last minute we end up with an evolution that hadn't been shown by any of the model until about 24 hours ago.

[Snowy Easterlies]

cruel twist of fate thats the models for you it happens a lot, i should be used to this but its still hard to take

the difference between this run and the 18z is laughable

[Jupiters Winter]

GFS gets through with only UKMO to walk across now. Against all signals both the GFS and ECM and looking very likely the UKMO next.

[swfc]

I will but diamonds on fi showing a cracking easterly and biblical cold!!!!!!!Also the almost legendry nh blocking,and 1947 synoptics lol.

[cfallon]

Stop with all the doom and gloom, for me a high of 3 and a low of -2 for next weekend at the end of nov is good! Like 2010 the models had a wobble just before the big event just wait to see what changes again in the next few days!

[LomondSnowstorm]

NOW there's cross model agreement:

Well I guess now it's time to move onto the 'ECM wasn't so bad' narrative

Edited November 26, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[Snowy Easterlies]

azores high topples into the uk such a common synoptic i knew it was too good to be true

ah well

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well I, for one, have had enough of chasing an imaginary cold spell. I urged caution the other day because it was clear that the models were starting to redistribute energy around the N Atlantic and my confidence was dented over any potential cold spell.For some people this will be a bitter pill to swallow......it is for me but as I was semi expecting it it's slightly easier to take!

[Wilxy]

UKMO is now starting to roll out.

[PolarWarsaw]

In all fairness it was only a 'cool down' that was nailed. We've been chasing -5 uppers and proper snowy cold weather at t180-220 for literally 2-3 weeks now. This time last week we referred to 'next Sunday' and now we are here we were looking at next Sunday - proper cold has never got into a realistic 7 days pattern.

GFS backs down - watch the ECM go the opposite way next.

Overall summary - chillier (but not cold) as the week goes on, drier with the odd chance of a wintry flurry on high ground. 50-50 split between prospects from the weekend with mild/atlantic/cold zonal conditions taking a narrow likelyhood advantage.

[Jupiters Winter]

This one stings..... Left blue right blue and the UK murky green,,,,

[LomondSnowstorm]

Well I, for one, have had enough of chasing an imaginary cold spell. I urged caution the other day because it was clear that the models were starting to redistribute energy around the N Atlantic and my confidence was dented over any potential cold spell.For some people this will be a bitter pill to swallow......it is for me but as I was semi expecting it it's slightly easier to take!

Well done, it's true that there were signs, however subtle, that this might happen.

We still look in a very strong position for the rest of the month, it's not even winter yet, so I'm not overly pessimistic, it's just a pretty big setback in the shorter term.

[The Eagle]

NOGAPS maintaining the fantasy

http://meteociel.com/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php

[Snowy Easterlies]

Well I, for one, have had enough of chasing an imaginary cold spell. I urged caution the other day because it was clear that the models were starting to redistribute energy around the N Atlantic and my confidence was dented over any potential cold spell.For some people this will be a bitter pill to swallow......it is for me but as I was semi expecting it it's slightly easier to take!

yep bad news is we have 3 months of this to come chasing phantom cold spells, so be prepared for more ups and downs,

dunno have many setbacks i can take

NOGAPS maintaining the fantasy

http://meteociel.com...apse_cartes.php

stupid difference between that and GFS at such a short range as well, best thing to do is look out of the window

[Wilxy]

UKMO disagrees completely