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Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Well the GFS follows the ECM's last run with the beast from the north east laid to rest in deep FI and a mobile Atlantic in charge. Luckily we keep the cooler uppers so no prolonged mild spells so there should be some of the white stuff around on the higher hills. It will interesting what the ECM will show in a bit will it drive the final nail into the very cold outlook or reverse it's position.

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Jupiters Winter Newbie

Jupiters Winter

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Icy
  • Location: Birmingham 122M ASL
Posted

The GFS 00z Ensembles highlight the kink quite well. Also funny enough there is a kink at a very similar 30 year average. Plenty of heads knocked over the years then.

http://www.null/two/ensembles/

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snow drift Newbie

snow drift

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Winter. Dry cool Summers
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

Look at the diferences at T144. Hang fire with "this it". IF the energy from the NW is being overdone then much will change. It effects the whole run afterwards. The METO are not sure if the block will hold. Yet as daft as it is to talk about snow depths on Sat it is daft to say thats it.gfsnh-0-144ohm4_mini.pngUN144-21zcn2_mini.png

Edited by snow drift
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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted (edited)

I have my full faith in the back ground signals and the ukmo on this... Not saying we will get an attack from the atlantic after next weekend.. Underestimating the blocking.. If it does then i'm sure there will be a reload! look at the north pole... To me no mild weather will last long...

Would be a shocker if it went wrong though! Against most professionals

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Great Plum Rising Star

Great Plum

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
Posted

GFS Ensembles anyone?

Edit/ As the 18z Ensembles were very consistent.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

Notice that in London, the mean stays at -4/-5 until the 2nd December and then remains below average throughout... Notice how very few ensemble members go above average... Winter is clearly over ... (good grief everyone - get a grip, please stop taking every run as gospel!)

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

The ECM has the low about 15mb higher than either UKMO or NAM at that stage:

ECH1-72.GIF?26-12

It's barely even a feature.

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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted

Personally i think the signal is for after next week at some point and we will be laughing when it pees down with snow in the west! ;)

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

OMG OMG OMG

ECH1-96.GIF?26-12

Unreal, it is going to make it!

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

ECM1-120.GIF?26-12

We appear to have salvaged it! It's heading northwards, the cold spell is intact!

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snow drift Newbie

snow drift

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Winter. Dry cool Summers
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif

Woop! Now that is a great chart for cold and it is only 5 days away!

Trouble is we will now have a hundred posts of guess the snow depth. Guys lets just see what unfolds. If the MET dont know where that system is going to go, how can anyone be sure. Want to know why this is a great hobby. Because in situations like this it is exciting.

Edited by snow drift
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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

Can i go to bed....talk about ups and downs

Good plan, quite a night eh? I told you all not to write anything off (after the initial reaction to the GFS).

The 12Zs could still change but within this range and the ECM agreeing broadly with the UKMO it's hard to see that shifting again.

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

Most folk were for binning the ECM last night, what makes you think this will be correct, even more so now as the GFS has flipped? Hold your horses guys the next chart could go either way..... help.gif

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

I should add of course that it isn't synoptically ideal, very similar to the ECM 00Z yesterday, but it's a lot better than what the 12Z or the 00Z GFS have to offer:

ECM1-144.GIF?26-12

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keithlucky Experienced

keithlucky

Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
Posted

A complete turnaround by the met office after yesterdays forecast of LP attacking from the west until the end of the week Darren Bent said,the latest forecast is HPressure building from north a mostly dry week after today and turning colder with a Northerly wiind flow.

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

an improvement at T144 but its still not great tbh, but still time for upgrades

True but more importantly it is a reversal of the trend - I am not kicking it out of bed.

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Zakos Community Regular

Zakos

Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough
Posted

What the last 24 hours has taught us to keep a cool head and not pin all your hopes on every run.

Model variability remains very high, we are far from a clear solution yet.

My thoughts remain the same; we will experience a significant cold spell in early December

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