Model Output Discussion 26/11/2012 18Z onwards

[Jupiters Winter]

GFS T240 Undercut very low uppers with excellent Atlantic blocking. why is it always T240 plus................

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm heading off now, wake me up if you find some zonality in the charts.

[Snowy Easterlies]

At 250 hrs things pick up

HAHA we get a easterly in deep FI, but its cut off pretty quick anyway, same old story the ridge topples, but thats all conjuncture anyway

[Snowy Easterlies]

I'm heading off now, wake me up if you find some zonality in the charts.

what would you call it then ? a UK high over us, or a stonking northerly or easterly, just looks like plain old atlantic over our island to me

game over for me in this spell, UKMO at T144 is very average, tell me how snow would come from that chart, baring high ground in the north

Edited November 27, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[swfc]

The ukmo does let the low pressure threw at 144 hrs however you dress it up.Not a terrible chart there either given the 850s.The blocking to me does not look strong enough full stop but its never going to be mild on that run for sure.I do find it odd how the mega freeze frenzy has now kind of diminished that a bit of common sense has crept into the mo.Onwards and upwards eh

Edited November 27, 2012 by swfc

[Snowy Easterlies]

gets milder in the south by monday http://cdn.nwstatic....9/ukmaxtemp.png, albeit FI and where is the precipitation anyway? i see a few days of early winter dry cold thats all, before the the Atlantic come in, i have seen far better potential than this which hasn't even come off so i don't know why im bothering watching these charts atm, as i said maybe high ground in the north might get something but i can't see snow anywhere else

however at least FI would give us a quick beasterly blast its only at T250 not long to wait

Edited November 27, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[swfc]

Ive actually been recently observing a lot of information on here regarding the nao,strat,pjo,sun spot activity ,el nino ete ete.I dont claim to grasp it all but my take given the "trend"was for major blocking threw the most of december.Maybe the trend is still there i dont no but trend or not the weather seems to blowing one or two theories out off the water!!!!!Late autumn early winter is generally the most volatile part of the season pv wise but i do accept thats not the case now regarding zonality ete.Great reading the posts from gp,sm,chino ete and respect to all them guys.Iguess the change in the meto outlook constantly shows the volatility of the atmosphere and synoptics.There was a guy on yorkshire tv years ago"Bill Foggitt who called many a cold winter using various methods including looking at nature ete amongst other things?Call it what you will but i wonder if theres something in it.My take is currently cool to cold unsettled weather with wintry weather to high ground .Also watch out for wax wings flying backwards,sure sign of an easterly!!!

Edited November 27, 2012 by swfc

[swfc]

gets milder in the south by monday http://cdn.nwstatic....9/ukmaxtemp.png, albeit FI and where is the precipitation anyway? i see a few days of early winter dry cold thats all, before the the Atlantic come in, i have seen far better potential than this which hasn't even come off so i don't know why im bothering watching these charts atm, as i said maybe high ground in the north might get something but i can't see snow anywhere else

however at least FI would give us a quick beasterly blast its only at T250 not long to wait

.Follow the trend!

[Snowy Easterlies]

Ive actually been recently observing a lot of information on here regarding the nao,strat,pjo,sun spot activity ,el nino ete ete.I dont claim to grasp it all but my take given the "trend"was for major blocking threw the most of december.Maybe the trend is still there i dont no but trend or not the weather seems to blowing one or two theories out off the water!!!!!Late autumn early winter is generally the most volatile part of the season pv wise but i do accept thats not the case now regarding zonality ete.Great reading the posts from gp,sm,chino ete and respect to all them guys.Iguess the change in the meto outlook constantly shows the volatility of the atmosphere and synoptics.There was a guy on yorkshire tv years ago"Bill Foggitt who called many a cold winter using various methods including looking at nature ete amongst other things?Call it what you will but i wonder if theres something in it.My take is currently cool to cold unsettled weather with wintry weather to high ground .Also watch out for wax wings flying backwards,sure sign of an easterly!!!

yep agree i think we rely to much on these teleconnections if they were always right we might as well always ignore these models,and just trust these signals, however its still only november and all though this is a disappointment regarding this supposed cold northeasterly/easterly we wanted, there is still plenty of time for more chances of proper cold and snow, as well as more letdowns of course

Edited November 27, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Mucka]

3 reasonable sliders in the GFS ensembles, last straws. 1,5,9

Edited November 27, 2012 by Mucka

[Snowy Easterlies]

3 reasonable sliders in the GFS ensembles, last straws. 1,5,9

wow i admire your optimism or is that sarcasm lol,

if we are lucky to get attacked by a front at night time then more places could see snow, i can't see any snow during daytime with these uppers and dewpoints, the charts flatter to decive there may be a lot of blues on the 500mb charts but uppers are nothing special except for scotland, and only briefly good for the rest of the UK, also as i said where is the precipitation for this weekend ? it comes next week but then its too mild anyway

Edited November 27, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Mucka]

wow i admire your optimism or is that sarcasm lol,

if we are lucky to get attacked by a front at night time then more places could see snow, i can't see any snow during daytime with these uppers and dewpoints, the charts flatter to decive here may be a lot of blues on the 500mb charts but uppers are nothing special except for scotland

also as i said where is the precipitation for this weekend ?

If we get a slider like any of those 3 it will stay cold and most places will see some sleet and snow at some stage. It is no coincidence that all those 3 runs stay cold through into FI and I posted before the FI was out.

Sure it is a long shot at the moment but plausible and if UKMO dispersed the energy South instead of East from 120 it would probably of produced.

Something to look out for in the ensembles anyway but I understand some people have had their fill of "potential".

For anyone feeling down with the charts take a tour of 1,5 and 9 I say.

Edited November 27, 2012 by Mucka

[Snowy Easterlies]

If we get a slider like any of those 3 it will stay cold and most places will see some sleet and snow at some stage. It is no coincidence that all those 3 runs stay cold through into FI and I posted before the FI was out.

Sure it is a long shot at the moment but plausible and if UKMO dispersed the energy South instead of East from 120 it would probably of produced.

Something to look out for in the ensembles anyway but I understand some people have had their fill of "potential".

For anyone feeling down with the charts take a tour of 1,5 and 9 I say.

yep permutation 1 does look good, if the op showed that i would be more confident, but as you said only 3 members out of 20 show a slider, permutation 1 is also better than the UKMO at T144

Edited November 27, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[swfc]

It would be quite ironic if ecmw ships the problem low north up the side of greenland shortly!!Given the ukmo not probable i know but things seem so complicated anything seems possible.

[Snowy Easterlies]

yeah ECM will probably show an undercutting low or something now thats the best we can hope for, cold uppers are crucial too, as i said those dark blue 500mb charts can give a false illusion, i mean look at the UKMO T120 chart, it looks like low pressure over us and it looks a cold chart but will there be any snow?, i don't think so it will be dry probably, then the MidAtlantic ridge topples at T144, that is such a common synoptic i hate that synoptic pattern

Edited November 27, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Jupiters Winter]

ECM Shortly-- My last model view then I cant see much happening on any model run for over 10 days--- Be back then--- Enjoy the weekend to those that might get an Isolated wintry shower...

[NorthernRab]

ECM Shortly-- My last model view then I cant see much happening on any model run for over 10 days--- Be back then--- Enjoy the weekend to those that might get an Isolated wintry shower...

In fairness, this is the model output discussion for the United Kingdom - some considerable snow looks a distinct possbility for Scotland this weekend.

[Snowy Easterlies]

ECM Shortly-- My last model view then I cant see much happening on any model run for over 10 days--- Be back then--- Enjoy the weekend to those that might get an Isolated wintry shower...

lol, who knows the ECM might show a proper arctic blast at 240, will people go through this all over again and watch the models a lot for another week and hope the "potential" comes to fruition

Edited November 27, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Jason T]

http://ows.public.sembach.af.mil/index.cfm?section=UKMOAnal

[Mucka]

lol, who knows the ECM might show a proper arctic blast at 240, will people go through this all over again and watch the models a lot for another week

Of course, you have to be hardcore to be a model watcher in the first instance and many of us have done this time and again right through the awful (Shh MW era )

Do I smell sulphur?

Edited November 27, 2012 by Mucka

[Snowy Easterlies]

ECM not bad at t96 better than the 12z everything further west

Edit @mucka, yes i am a pretty hardcore model watcher too, so i will probably still view these charts everyday even if we had an raging PV

Edited November 27, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[swfc]

It is a slightly better run at 96 hrs!!!!Kiss of death therehmmm 120hrs,ill get my coat!

Edited November 27, 2012 by swfc

[john pike]

120 chart looks good

block looks around 400 miles further west

will it snow??

no idea

Edited November 27, 2012 by john pike

[Snowy Easterlies]

hmmm yes,its colder at T120 compared to the 12z, but again i ask will there be any precipitation? that 120 chart flatters to deceive i think with those dark blues

[The PIT]

Well the more level headed folks prevail once again. Abused and scorned by those who should know better which must be intimidating for newbies coming on. Same every winter sadly.

The snow risk maps don't show much encouragement for many except in Scotland except deep in FI land. Note I've done a 12 hr step so may have missed a short snow fest.

So cool any major snow confined to short periods away from Scottish hills and remaining unsettled until deep FI when high pressure takes over which is unlikely to happen as any beast from the east at that time period.