Model Output Discussion 26/11/2012 18Z onwards

[Isolated Frost]

FAX says YES, YES, a million times YES

[cold snap]

I think that not really true at all, the shortwave stopped the easterly flow spreading south and west along with the cold uppers so if that did happen as per with the UKMO run, I would imagine any westerly winds would struggle to make an impact. The shortwave just basically giving the Atlantic an helping hand here as it all linked together and of course we seen what happened next.

Blocking is not weak at all, this run has height rises over Svalbard from now until 180, hardly a week block! Although we are pushing our luck it seems in terms of if/when we are going to benefit from this block as mother nature has a habit of even itself out!

Love your posts

Sorry I should of been clearer I was referring to the block out west

[bobbydog]

From 240hrs (FI) onwards looks like the GFS wants to strengthen the PV and revert back to zonal. Typical GFS.

slight error there- FI appears to be from 24hrs onwards....

[SMU]

Well lets see how we wake up- ( & No I was excluding myself -

Watch the trajectory of that 0c isotherm get further & further South & west.

S

[The Northern Ramper]

YUK !!

That's an awful 18z run, will be a very long way back to cold from here

This saying should be banned.

[Continental Climate]

FAX says YES, YES, a million times YES

That fax is almost identical to JMA of the same time frame http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma961.gif!!

[Weathizard]

From 240hrs (FI) onwards looks like the GFS wants to strengthen the PV and revert back to zonal. Typical GFS.

GFS always reverts to the Zonal train, its rubbish, it could well be true but far, far too often do we see the GFS firing up the Vortex.

Edited November 26, 2012 by Weathizard

[Isolated Frost]

FAX says YES, YES, a million times YES

To clarify- the shortwave is minimal contact- with a series of troughs nearby, the 528dm is further inland with higher pressure and a slack flow- the trough is further north and the canadian low is more progressive- but short term, superb

[LomondSnowstorm]

FAX says YES, YES, a million times YES

Told you!

Well, in fairness it was modified but not massively.

Edited November 26, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[crimsonp]

FAX says YES, YES, a million times YES

yes to what I.F.?

[cooling climate]

Again another GFS run and another shift towards the UKMO. Almost certain this

trend will continue tomorrow. Nothing to be despondent about from what I can see.

[Panayiotis]

Daneil what does that show

Well it show an increase in the North Atlantic Oscillation which suggests that there is lower chance of high pressure in Greenland (essential for cold) for that period of time, but soon after it shows that the NAO may decrease which suggests higher chances of high pressure in Greenland.

[Harsh Climate]

I've seen enough tonight, don't think were any clearer than we was yesterday afternoon lol. Again the overnight output will be massive

[Panayiotis]

slight error there- FI appears to be from 24hrs onwards....

You are most indeed right!

[JCP]

That is yesterday's fax.

[Isolated Frost]

I concede to LS and SM- I guess I was caught in the euphoria, I'll pay you in respect Steve

120 still to come out- will be interesting whether the flow can continue with the trough movement- a potentially cold north-east flow on 120 if all comes good-

[karlos1983]

Ok, seen the Fax, can go to bed happy(ish) now, what awaits tomorrow, god only knows!!!

[SMU]

those of us will remember back to a similar situation from the GFS 5 years ago

which ended up quite snowy-

http://modeles.meteo...007-2-8-0-0.png

The GFS had that low into france about 6 days before hand then went west day after day!

Edited November 26, 2012 by Steve Murr

[Tim Bland]

Lol Karlos didn't get the memo but at least he goes to sleep happy I'm not going to wait up to confirm that the meto have followed ukmo for their fax.... Again, yawn. Europe apart from uk is in the freezer and getting buried again on this run.... Off to easy jet website and to persuade the mrs that Prague or salzberg will be good for Xmas shopping

[Eskimo]

That is yesterday's fax.

No I think you'll find it's todays FAX, +96h is 4 days, the 30th is 4 days away.

[JCP]

Ok, seen the Fax, can go to bed happy(ish) now, what awaits tomorrow, god only knows!!!

I repeat, to tonight's fax hasn't updated at the time of writing...

96hrs = 4 days = Friday.

[Snowy Easterlies]

From 240hrs (FI) onwards looks like the GFS wants to strengthen the PV and revert back to zonal. Typical GFS.

sorry but why do people always think that GFS FI resets to default? that is not always true, how about it may be right albeit not that extreme, like GFS FI shows, heights try to build and yet again the ridge flattens

think we are clutching at straws here people regarding the early to medium timeframe

Edited November 26, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[LomondSnowstorm]

I concede to LS and SM- I guess I was caught in the euphoria, I'll pay you in respect Steve

120 still to come out- will be interesting whether the flow can continue with the trough movement- a potentially cold north-east flow on 120 if all comes good-

You were right to an extent, it was modified, as Ian says it pretty much always is, at least slightly. I think given the Met Office outlook it won't look quite as good as the UKMO raw but with a more northeasterly flow than the ECM ensemble mean.

[Mucka]

Well lets see how we wake up- ( & No I was excluding myself -

Watch the trajectory of that 0c isotherm get further & further South & west.

S

Shall I tell them your secret weapon Steve?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wmc/run/wmc-0-120.png

[Isolated Frost]

I repeat, to tonight's fax hasn't updated at the time of writing...

96hrs = 4 days = Friday.

Today is Monday.

24 hrs is Tuesday.

48 hrs is Wednesday.

72 hrs is Thursday.

96 hrs is Friday.

I don't quite understand??