Model Output Discussion 26/11/2012 18Z onwards

[Mucka]

Is there a clickable map somewhere for ens for parts in the N of Eng and Scot??

Only what you can see, sorry Scotland. Best you can do is click as far North as possible.

[SylvainTV]

Is there a clickable map somewhere for ens for parts in the N of Eng and Scot??

Yes (sorry Mucka ) click on the "Carte Europe" link;

http://www.meteociel...efs.php?carte=1

Besides, I have modfied the FAX page so that it had the date in the URL (like all other model chart image links) , so people will not have anymore the "fax not updated" problem (I hope at least ). Even added a label at the top right like the other model

Sylvain

Edited November 27, 2012 by SylvainTV

[Cloud 10]

Is there a clickable map somewhere for ens for parts in the N of Eng and Scot??

GFS ensemble charts, graphs and maps for the UK - Netweather.tv

[NickR]

Yes click on the "Carte Europe" link;

http://www.meteociel...efs.php?carte=1

Ta!

[Mucka]

Yes click on the "Carte Europe" link;

http://www.meteociel...efs.php?carte=1

Hey I learned something. Thanks.

Clicking on Iceland reminds me of 2010 and also what an amazing spell of prolonged severe weather that was for our latitude.

http://modeles.meteo...37737&runpara=0

Edited November 27, 2012 by Mucka

[london-snow]

So to sum up the yesterday so far before the 00z shows it's hand for those who have not been about yesterday morning & yesterday evening -

00z GFS - A big disappointment for those who sipped on their red bulls and stayed up to view this as despair descended.

00z UKMO - Mr consistency to the rescue and in line with what it has been showing the past two days now. Better get another red bull and await the ecm.

00z ECM - A good turnaround from its previous run last night. A upgrade in the more reliable time frame however turning messy and could have been better outside the reliable time frame.

06z GFS - A lean towards the UKMO in earlier frames gets messy after that.

12z GFS - Pretty much the same as the 06z in earlier frames a lean towards the UKMO 00z gets messy again after.

12z UKMO - A rip snorter of a run sticks two fingers up to our west and produces a very cold outlook for the uk. Mr consistency to the rescue again.

12Z ECM - Not to bad of a run up until the reliable time frame under 96hrs after this things get messy however signs of encouragement towards the end of the run. To sum up - Cold - Mild Incursion - Cold Reestablishing.

18Z GFS -Preety similar to the UKMO in early time frame however throws a spanner mid range. Things trending nicely upstream tonight however downhill downstream.

So to sum up the options going forward to the 00z i feel we have three options -

A -

A battleground where milder weather tries to push in from the west and colder air is established to our eastern half the two join together and we have a snowfall event on the eastern side and sleet to rain on the western side. Colder air to win out and re establish in a few days after while the east stays cold throughout.

B -

A battleground where milder weather tries to push in from the west and colder air is established to our eastern half the two join together and we have a snowfall event on the eastern side and sleet to rain on the western side. Milder air to win out on that occasion however this is just very temporary as a renewed push of cold establishes in the uk.

C -

That low out to the west is forced north and west and does not make any inroads east thus allowing the cold to spread further west and the Atlantic not firing up and keeping the uk in a cold spell throughout.

Sleep tight guys and girls

Edited November 27, 2012 by london-snow

[LomondSnowstorm]

Another good NAM (is anyone else unable to access weather online?), 1052mb Greenland high now showing up along with the same rapid cyclogenesis of that low up the eastern seaboard that the UKMO has consistently shown, where it's tucked nicely away to the west of Greenland. This gives the setup over Europe ample time to develop favourably and force any energy that does attempt to move eastwards under the block or to fail to make it across the Atlantic at all.

[scottishandy]

LSS pulling another all nighter, you not tired yet? I'm here again but at least I'm getting paid to be up.

Back to the models, I wonder if the second modeled attempt at a block breakthrough can get put off as well. Interesting to watch ECM and GFS slowy come round to the UKMO modeling of the NF LP and stop it passing through the block only to see the next attempt squeezing through. Can the block hold strong against another push or is a temporary breakdown inevitable?

Weatheronline working fine here.

Edited November 27, 2012 by scottishandy

[LomondSnowstorm]

LSS pulling another all nighter, you not tired yet? I'm here again but at least I'm getting paid to be up.

Back to the models, I wonder if the second modeled attempt at a block breakthrough can get put off as well. Interesting to watch ECM and GFS slowy come round to the UKMO modeling of the NF LP and stop it passing through the block only to see the next attempt squeezing through. Can the block hold strong against another push or is a temporary breakdown inevitable?

I am, I'm just about to head to bed now actually, I've no lecture until 1 tomorrow so I can have a lie in.

I think some energy is going to come under the block, but if the trajectory of that low is like what the NAM shows the energy that moves east when it disrupts will be slower moving and at a more favourable angle, which could potentially even help maintain the influence of the block. With the UKMO 12Z you would've had a similar scenario to that, although it might have been enough for a temporary milder period in the south. In terms of the pattern of blocking breaking down though I don't actually see much sign of that for the next fortnight or so, it's just whether or not we can stay on the right side of the jet for long enough. Obviously with our latitude that gives us a much better chance than further south so we have a greater margin for error, and even some of the worse looking runs like the ECM 00Z only lose the sub -4C uppers for about 24 hours over the whole run here, so there's an awful lot of potential there for snowfall. Hopefully we'll get the details of this weekend at least firmed up today.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Weatheronline working fine here.

Cheers, not working on mine for some reason, maybe it'll come back tomorrow. Anyway, have a good night model watching.

edit: Final comment: GFS 00Z is not handling the low right even at +30, big difference with the NAM and GME (another higher res. model). If it's a poor run that could be why.

Edited November 27, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[swfc]

96 hrs and low ready to come threw.good pressure build still over sval tho

[Zenarcher]

Currently just passed 90 hours the low to the South of Greenland has been pushed more South. Still a shortwave to the North of the UK but been pushed East,

[Matty M]

GME much more favourable for troughing to ourt northeast at T72hr compared to GFS

GFS all over a colder run with increasing chance of sliders.

However a lot of room for GFS to move to a better synoptic if it can move to a troughing set up similar to GME

[LomondSnowstorm]

I was going to head to bed but this run's got me intrigued: look at the uppers coming into northwest Scotland:

I don't see the low disrupting that far southeast as plausible to be honest though.

[Snowy Easterlies]

GFS is poor, we wait for the UKMO to put us out of our misery, come on guys ditch the straw clutching

im afraid its a myth that the models under do blocking this is not always true

might be some snow for hills on this run but that is about it, just normal cold zonality

Edited November 27, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[swfc]

Not much joy there to be honest.thought the low was going to slide sse?hmmm see what the ecm shows but the pv does look to be on one big time!!!Really blowing the blocking away at 180 hrs altho fi still looks pretty rank

Edited November 27, 2012 by swfc

[Snowy Easterlies]

who wants to bet that high to the south ends up shifting everything further north and we end up with a euro high on future runs ?

[Matty M]

Not much joy there to be honest.thought the low was going to slide sse?hmmm see what the ecm shows but the pv does look to be on one big time!!!

what charts are you guys looking at

GFS not far from something cold and snowy and AH still intact

[LomondSnowstorm]

I still fail to see any zonality in this, whatever it may be called. Whatever you think, when there's such a lack of consistency at short range then once again it's foolish to jump to conclusions either way

[Wilxy]

And the UKMO still not changing its idea wow this is very odd now.

I swear the latest ukmo is better than last its got better.

[Snowy Easterlies]

come on, we haven't seen a decent GFS run for ages now, this run may be ok for you lomond

blocking is clearly weaker around the T120 mark

oh look FI has potential, what a shock

[LomondSnowstorm]

UKMO reasonably solid in spite of a very concerning trend from the models to bring in more shortwaves than looks plausible:

Similar to the JMA if slightly worse angle at 144:

[Matty M]

UKM is good at t96 and t120

slight incursion at t144 but overall synop not too bad.

slightly poorer downstream set up near 96hrs compared to 12z

[swfc]

At 250 hrs things pick up

[LomondSnowstorm]

come on, we haven't seen a decent GFS run for ages now, this run may be ok for you lomond

blocking is clearly weaker around the T120 mark

oh look FI has potential, what a shock

It's an upgrade from yesterday's 00Z, if we're using the Holmesian method..