Model Output Discussion 26/11/2012 18Z onwards

[JCP]

Hmm it shows 29th for me, even after many refreshes!

[Theresnoway]

this is weird - spot the mistake on this copy of the fax

It is yesterday's fax?

[JCP]

Today is Monday.

24 hrs is Tuesday.

48 hrs is Wednesday.

72 hrs is Thursday.

96 hrs is Friday.

I don't quite understand??

Must be something wrong at my end - I can't seem to get it to refresh to tonight's?

[NickR]

Hmm it shows 29th for me, even after many refreshes!

Control + F5?

[Isolated Frost]

I'd regard the FAX as a half-way house between the tremendous UKMO (similar esp in UK/Euro flow), and the ECM ENS (similar esp in terms of the Canadian low and block)- all added together, and it's quite a good chart... waiting for 120 now- I'd expect this north/north-east snap to be over in 60-72 hrs, but it will deliver well based on the fax at t96.

[johnholmes]

thanks as always Ian-your inputs from the senior man are worth a snowman I would think!

Such a pleasant change from some of the hype from both sides cold/mild, scientific reasoning rather than hopes and hot air. Please keep them coming.

The next 500mb look ahead will take a close look at how they changed over a 24 hour period, and IF I can work out why that as well. Along with what this means in the period 6 days hence and out to 15 days. What has happened to them over the past 48 hours is totally fascinating. One thing it has I hope killed stone dead is the idea that as NOAA do not have a forecast input over the weekend the weekend is less reliable. The Sunday issue could easily be a carbon copy of the Monday issue this time.

[karlos1983]

I've now had to re-check 3 times, I'm almost certain it's today's.........but now (thanks to JCP) not convinced........

[andymusic]

ok this is the right one - sorry - very tired after all this model watching

[Zenarcher]

It is yesterday's fax?

To clear up confusion the 96 hour chart is tonight's here's a uploaded version,

120 hour chart has yet to update.

[chris55]

When you think about it we have all just spent the last week glued to the models chasing a cold spell that now may not happen at all.

I think my family think I'm slightly mad at this stage lol

If it doesn't happen it will seriously damage the belief that background signals help us forecast the weather beyond 7 days or so.

In fact it throws the whole winter being cold thinking into disarray

I disagree, the broad pattern has been forecast well at quite a range from the EC32, high pressure to the north, Low to the south. The anomaly charts have also been very good.

Random charts picked out from most of the output will tell you that, here's two from the 18z

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

The problem is we are relying on shortwaves/ridges to fall just right "within" this broad pattern to deliver cold to our "tiny" bit of the world. So in the mid range we CAN rely on the models picking up a general theme but it's all the details (which matter so much for our little island) that can have a real bearing on what we actually experience within that pattern.

I would also add that the % of us experiencing cold and snow is highly increased when in this type of disrupted meridional flow than if we are stuck in a flat Zonal pattern. But sadly that doesn't guarantee anything.

But back to the hear and now and I am very much of the opinion that things are by no means over WRT all the happenings in the models.

[SnowObsessor90]

GFS always reverts to the Zonal train, its rubbish, it could well be true but far, far too often do we see the GFS firing up the Vortex.

Well I certainty wouldn't rule that sort of evolution out eventually, the models have already seemingly made fools out of us once so who's to say that the longer term signals favouring cold won't end up doing the same?

[JCP]

Control + F5?

Unfortunately not, I'm on an iPad ;-)

Got it working in the end, thanks to the direct link http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif

sorry all!

[richjb78]

It is yesterday's fax?

Check the time published...

[Geordiesnow]

Its good to see the FAX chart is suggesting we may see the troughing over Europe and not really into Scandinavia, this shortwave pending should eject the cold further south and west quicker!

Now PLEASE ECM just agree with the UKMO with the troughing, the GFS finally has!

[Weathizard]

Isn't that fax chart all a few hundred miles further east? Ie, the Canadian low is further east than yesterdays Fax progged it? This is not a good thing I'm right in thinking?

PS: Anyone else having trouble with Meteociel website? On the FAX chart page and its all gone cockahoot, the colours are all mixed up and theres an N next to the times?

Edited November 26, 2012 by Weathizard

[Wilxy]

Im loving how we still can't get an agreement between the models its likely it won't be long now until we see what the pattern turns out to be, very intresting times viewing the models.

[johnholmes]

Just looking at the anomaly charts and they all show the blip, call it what you like, in the pattern being blocked sufficiently far south to affect the UK with a surface flow from somewhere between NW and NE to a more W'ly but still fairly cold pattern. They all suggest the pattern reverting to a flow more meridional being possible. The 850mb T is also shown to be around-4C or below out to about T+136 then staying below zero C throughout. This confirms that the cold spell is at the start, ie from tomorrow for 5 days or so. Still below normal but less cold but a prob, I'd say about 60% at the moment of a return to those values later.

Of course I could be talking out of thee wrong end and receive another dollop of egg-we shall see over the next fortnight!

[bluearmy]

thanks as always Ian-your inputs from the senior man are worth a snowman I would think!

Such a pleasant change from some of the hype from both sides cold/mild, scientific reasoning rather than hopes and hot air. Please keep them coming.

The next 500mb look ahead will take a close look at how they changed over a 24 hour period, and IF I can work out why that as well. Along with what this means in the period 6 days hence and out to 15 days. What has happened to them over the past 48 hours is totally fascinating. One thing it has I hope killed stone dead is the idea that as NOAA do not have a forecast input over the weekend the weekend is less reliable. The Sunday issue could easily be a carbon copy of the Monday issue this time.

Yesterday evenings were quite late out john. I wonder if they were modified?

[liam300]

Guys,

Any chance of getting the model times please?

Should of saved them yesterday

[JCP]

Up to 102hrs on the ensembles and there's some promising runs in there - is the pendulum swinging back again?!

[bobbydog]

tonights ECM is looking better-

[Weathizard]

Guys,

Any chance of getting the model times please?

Should of saved them yesterday

[karlos1983]

Guys,

Any chance of getting the model times please?

Should of saved them yesterday

[SylvainTV]

Isn't that fax chart all a few hundred miles further east? Ie, the Canadian low is further east than yesterdays Fax progged it? This is not a good thing I'm right in thinking?

PS: Anyone else having trouble with Meteociel website? On the FAX chart page and its all gone cockahoot, the colours are all mixed up and theres an N next to the times?

Yes sorry i'm working on it, so that it's easier to see what image is new and what is old. The "N" here means "New from today" so it has been updated today

Sylvain

[HammerJack]

Guys,

Any chance of getting the model times please?

Should of saved them yesterday

There you go