Model Output Discussion 26/11/2012 18Z onwards

[Weathizard]

Every single person posting in this thread has got it wrong in the last 30 Mins-

wait till the morning.

You will see this sort of chart starting to develop,

http://modeles.meteo...996-2-6-0-0.png

\the slider is coming. GFS RIP.

Thats a bold claim Steve, do you not think you are opening yourself up here to a bit of a ribbing? And how dare you say I'm wrong

[LomondSnowstorm]

Every single person posting in this thread has got it wrong in the last 30 Mins-

wait till the morning.

You will see this sort of chart starting to develop,

http://modeles.meteo...996-2-6-0-0.png

\the slider is coming. GFS RIP.

There does appear to be a strong tendency for the models to keep blocking around your favourite Svalbard area while keeping the trough negatively tilted, certainly wouldn't be outwith the realms of possibility.

[Liam J]

Every single person posting in this thread has got it wrong in the last 30 Mins-

wait till the morning.

You will see this sort of chart starting to develop,

http://modeles.meteo...996-2-6-0-0.png

\the slider is coming. GFS RIP.

How can they possibly be wrong about a future event, we'll know who is right once we get to the T0, until that time it's much more speculation

[Bobby]

As I said earlier, not a single Op run of any model or even really an ensemble peturbation shows a significant cold spell incoming so what are people really expecting? Even the UKMO is right it would very likely show the Atlantic moving in fairly quickly if it went beyond +144 and the UKMO is the best case scenario and the Met Office themselves seem to be distancing from now also.

Maybe it's time to turn attention to the next possible cold spell.

There are promising signs further into December so hopefully this is just the beginning.

Edited November 26, 2012 by Barb-

[nick sussex]

Every single person posting in this thread has got it wrong in the last 30 Mins-

wait till the morning.

You will see this sort of chart starting to develop,

http://modeles.meteo...996-2-6-0-0.png

\the slider is coming. GFS RIP.

Steve I thought you weren't ever going to post that chart again, thats just cruel!lol

Seriously though my moneys on something similar to tonights JMA, if the ECM removes the bloated trough then it would probably look like that.

If the UKMO is indeed right then who knows what that could lead to!

[Panayiotis]

People may say this is a bad chart but look north there is high pressure in the artic at 1036mb! Also the low to the east of America may ridge the azores high pressure into Greenland?

Edited November 26, 2012 by panayiotis

[Geordiesnow]

The thing is nick if we had no complications regarding that low we would still struggle with the block even though blocking has been suggested for some time it's quickly showing its a weak block which can be easily overridden

Maybe another go later in the december might prove to be better as suggested by ECM 32 dayer

I think that not really true at all, the shortwave stopped the easterly flow spreading south and west along with the cold uppers so if that did happen as per with the UKMO run, I would imagine any westerly winds would struggle to make an impact. The shortwave just basically giving the Atlantic an helping hand here as it all linked together and of course we seen what happened next.

Blocking is not weak at all, this run has height rises over Svalbard from now until 180, hardly a week block! Although we are pushing our luck it seems in terms of if/when we are going to benefit from this block as mother nature has a habit of even itself out!

[chionomaniac]

The overall 500hPa pattern to start December is cracking though. And even though we don't have the evolution on this run that we would like, it is likely to change.

Oh and to EML, you say that there is no way back for cold from there - but I still see it as the opposite. No way back for mild from there. We are surrounded by cold with a Svalbard high!

[bobbydog]

Every single person posting in this thread has got it wrong in the last 30 Mins-

wait till the morning.

You will see this sort of chart starting to develop,

http://modeles.meteo...996-2-6-0-0.png

\the slider is coming. GFS RIP.

does that include you then steve?.....

[Isolated Frost]

FAXes out in 5 folks-

I'd compare them in specific to

a) yesterday's 120 fax (for today's 96 fax)

b ) the 96 and 120 on today's UKMO

c) the 96 and 120 on today's ECM ENS

Edited November 26, 2012 by Isolated Frost

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

How can they possibly be wrong about a future event, we'll know who is right once we get to the T0, until that time it's much more speculation

I think that was a joke wasn't it??

[Harsh Climate]

Looks alright to me

From here both a greeny high and a scandinavian high are more than possible

Edited November 26, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[A Winter's Tale]

Hardly awful considering the heights over Svalbard aswell as high pressure in the mid atlantic linking up wth Greenland. Hardly mild for the British Isles with potential for hill snow in the Scottish Highlands and there is still a very decent pool of cold air to our east.

[Weathizard]

Fax charts out soon, anyone got a link?

[jonboy]

People.

Keep the faith- the GFS at 138 is pushing the atlantic in, however each run its further SW & at a better angle. & remember thats 138- we still have 23 runs to T0-

The NOGAPS trending almost totally to the UKMO at 120-

The Fat lady has lost her throat lozengers,

S

Hi Steve

I do think UKMO is better understanding the new dynamic and if that's due to better modelling of the stratosphere who know's.

I believe we need to listen more to the input that GP etal say re how teleconections might be affecting how the weather patterns and the artic vortex react.

We will have a massive winter lets hope its this one

People.

Keep the faith- the GFS at 138 is pushing the atlantic in, however each run its further SW & at a better angle. & remember thats 138- we still have 23 runs to T0-

The NOGAPS trending almost totally to the UKMO at 120-

The Fat lady has lost her throat lozengers,

S

Hi Steve

I do think UKMO is better understanding the new dynamic and if that's due to better modelling of the stratosphere who know's.

I believe we need to listen more to the input that GP etal say re how teleconections might be affecting how the weather patterns and the artic vortex react.

We will have a massive winter lets hope its this one

[crimsonp]

ok, so judging from ive seen of the gfs over the past few days, the cold snap which we see over this coming week should dissapate as that lp from canada merges with the scandi lp but more low pressure will build up again next week over canada bringing us back to what we are all looking forward to this week!!

this is the latest gfs which shows how it all begins again..... FI i know but hey!

[karlos1983]

When you think about it we have all just spent the last week glued to the models chasing a cold spell that now may not happen at all.

I think my family think I'm slightly mad at this stage lol

If it doesn't happen it will seriously damage the belief that background signals help us forecast the weather beyond 7 days or so.

In fact it throws the whole winter being cold thinking into disarray

Ditto

[Ice BIast]

Bags of potential here:

[chionomaniac]

wait till the morning.

You will see this sort of chart starting to develop,

http://modeles.meteo...996-2-6-0-0.png

\the slider is coming. GFS RIP.

err - that includes you Steve!!!

However, without suggesting 1962 charts, the overall pattern is extremely encouraging and it wouldn't take much to land the cold.

[Mark Bayley]

Awful?

Northern blocking that a few years we couldn't dream of. Polar maritime incursions from the west and very cool. Trough remains in europe.

THIS is awful-

Perspective people... look at the bigger picture rather than letting a shortwave blur your view of an incredible hemispherical pattern-

Some V cold air in the offing- this first spell still isn't even started, so why complain about the lack of a second already? Look at the in-depth thread, look at the strat thread- don't be fooled by nwp constantly (and this nwp is showing incredible northern blocking as well!!)

Yes, if the charts by the 18z are described as awful, in which if we look at the NH view we see a weak and fragmented PV, and an -AO, i would hate to see how people would describe a raging jet, strong +AO and mild SW's. Something all to common in past winters! While blocking remains, and we keep the fragmented PV, the potential for something wintry is rather good

[Met4Cast]

Oh my..

[camiscool]

Daneil what does that show

[Geordiesnow]

When you think about it we have all just spent the last week glued to the models chasing a cold spell that now may not happen at all.

I think my family think I'm slightly mad at this stage lol

If it doesn't happen it will seriously damage the belief that background signals help us forecast the weather beyond 7 days or so.

In fact it throws the whole winter being cold thinking into disarray

Not at all, the background signals suggested blocking and that what we have got. People seem to think if the teleconnections think blocking is likely, its going to be cold and snowy but it does not work out like that. You have to have blocking in the right places and everything else falling into place for success.

In normal cirumstances, the Northerly will probably be a little colder than what it will be in reality and lets be honest, we are hardly a million miles away on this run from getting winds from the East.

If teleconnections suggests we may get an negative AO and a lot of blocking and in reality we got a massive PV over Greenland/Svalbard with low heights in the Arctic and high pressure at mid-latitudes, I may agree with you.

[nick sussex]

Ok my final post of the evening and I'm going to be positive.

It's easier for the models to have shortwaves wrong than the development of the Canadian low so given the timeframes the Alien shortwave has a good chance of not verifying or being further se, so we still have a decent chance.

What would be more worrying is if the models didn't develop that Canadian low and threw that much further east on a flatter jet so I'd say this evening we're in a holding pattern waiting for the next installment of the current model soap opera.

[Panayiotis]

From 240hrs (FI) onwards looks like the GFS wants to strengthen the PV and revert back to zonal. Typical GFS.