Model Output Discussion 12z 30/11/2012

[TEITS]

ECM +168 fits in perfectly with the post I was just typing whilst the ECM was coming out.

[Kiwi]

Quite. Exeter's latest comment on it: "....a moderate prob of a more organised spell of rain/sleet/hill snow running E’wards across southern and western areas...."

All too often the M4 corridor seems to the boundary between rain/sleet and snow.

What's the betting that this will be the boundary once again if the channel low scenario comes off?

[Chris D]

http://www.meteociel...H1-168.GIF?30-0

Must admit it's a bit weird lol! (the evolution I mean!)

Edited November 30, 2012 by Chris D

[Continental Climate]

That is a disgustingly optimistic chart http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif!! Not even im dumb enough to be suckered in by that lol

[Bonjangle]

Interesting when this band of rain moves in from the west on Monday and what it will exactly fall as.

Obvious rain for me and the rest ov wales .

Edited November 30, 2012 by Aquastarmist

[Cheshire Freeze]

can you explain to me why the GFS is wrong and the ECM is right at T120 ?

Yes, come on Zakos, I was also wondering this......so come on old mucker, don't be shy. Will make for an interesting read and have the dual purpose of helping the newcomers to learn a few things.

[Methuselah]

Right ECM T+168 where did it go? Hands up - who's nicked the slider?

The same naughty so-and-so what stole last week's Scandi High, that's who!

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012113012/ECH1-192.GIF?30-0

very cold at the surface over the UK & almost odds on at another bite of the cherry-

A very plausable outcome from the ECM

S

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2012113012/JN192-21.GIF?30-12

JMA has the perfect scenario with a huge undercut ensuring that 216 would be a big easterly

S

[Catacol]

Here it is again... Scandy heights before next weekend with low pressure over Europe.

One day on and we are very close to a great setup:

Am I ignoring wise advice and looking at op runs rather than ensembles? Yes... but actually what I am trying to show people is that there is a consistent op signal for heights over scandy late next week with an easterly feed... (and who knows: a Feb 91 feel about it....) Never take a single run, but with the ensemble means as they are and this type of chart popping up over and over [have I posted a similar op chart for the end of next week on 3 or 4 occasions now??] the chances are increasing.

Very enjoyable day of model watching so far. My only downer is the MetO comment of a southerly feed. I know some of their big wigs have been on some course this week... so let's hope that the update from Ian is a little awry due to reduced professional interpretation!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

http://www.meteociel...H1-192.GIF?30-0

very cold at the surface over the UK & almost odds on at another bite of the cherry-

A very plausable outcome from the ECM

S

http://www.meteociel...92-21.GIF?30-12

JMA has the perfect scenario with a huge undercut ensuring that 216 would be a big easterly

S

Just looking at that chart Steve should us cold lovers here be worries by the PV as to my very untrained eye it looks quite strong? Thanks GSL

[london-snow]

I fully understand this view, however we have to understand that the models so far don't even go up to half way through December!

We can't ask for cold right through, sometimes there has to be a let up ... but the models at the moment of course don't run as far as beyond mid month. Hence, we are already slap bang in the middle of -4 nights and +2 days ... so what more can you ask for except from a nice little snap to kick the season off?

I understand your point re the models showing up to a certain point/period. However all i am stating is it could be a lot better in terms of not only longevity but also potential with the way the state of background signals are which is very good.

[Zakos]

can you explain to me why the GFS is wrong and the ECM is right at T120 ?

Because all models today have shown a westward shift, none more so dramatically than the GFS over the last 48 hours.

The trend here, as it 95% of the time in these set-ups, is a westward shift. All models to extent had this flaw, but none so exasperated as the GFS.

Of course, the GFS could be right, but how likely do you think that is? mark my words there will be a further westward shift by tommorow's 00z output

[January Snowstorm]

Indeed and the jma is quickly becoming a model to watch this season

Has improved a lot on where it was at, or is it just that it constantly shows cold so we keep dragging it out lol

[Continental Climate]

http://www.meteociel...H1-192.GIF?30-0

very cold at the surface over the UK & almost odds on at another bite of the cherry-

A very plausable outcome from the ECM

S

Hmm steve not sure i agree that it would be odds on for another bite of the cherry not much scope for retrogression anywhere on that chart too much energy and vortex to the north me thinks although if i am wrong would you enlighten me!!

[Stuie]

Obvious rain for me and the rest ov wales .

It was the leading edge towards the East which I was pointing at. Just noticed you have edited.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Here it is again... Scandy heights before next weekend with low pressure over Europe.

One day on and we are very close to a great setup:

Am I ignoring wise advice and looking at op runs rather than ensembles? Yes... but actually what I am trying to show people is that there is a consistent op signal for heights over scandy late next week with an easterly feed... (and who knows: a Feb 91 feel about it....) Never take a single run, but with the ensemble means as they are and this type of chart popping up over and over [have I posted a similar op chart for the end of next week on 3 or 4 occasions now??] the chances are increasing.

Very enjoyable day of model watching so far. My only downer is the MetO comment of a southerly feed. I know some of their big wigs have been on some course this week... so let's hope that the update from Ian is a little awry due to reduced professional interpretation!

This southerly feed they talk about is not really supported in their undated forecast. I checking this today and it was updated this afternoon.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/grimsby#?tab=regionalForecast&locId=yh

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012113012/ECH1-240.GIF?30-0

Nearly again at 240-

Note the Greenland high building at day 10-

Remember 10 days ago when I said the scandi high can force a retrograde back to greenland-

If we get a very flat patten across the atlantic with a scandi link up a retrograde is VERY high in the %age chances....

S

[nick sussex]

Wow the ECM has the zero isotherm into North Africa at 216 hrs!

An excellent run overall with retrogression likely later however its all very complicated upto 168hrs especially with that low to the sw.

[weatherguy]

@Steve, safe to say that shows a fairly blocked atlantic...

[Methuselah]

Indeed and the jma is quickly becoming a model to watch this season

Has improved a lot on where it was at, or is it just that it constantly shows cold so we keep dragging it out lol

What are its FI verification-stats? Or, like me, do lots of people like blue and purple?

Edited November 30, 2012 by Rybris Ponce

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

@Steve, safe to say that shows a fairly blocked atlantic...

And i am sure this has occured on quite a few runs from the GFS/ECM over the past week. If those charts verify to some degree at least things should feel very seasonal with frost and fog quite common across the UK.

[stainesbloke]

All too often the M4 corridor seems to the boundary between rain/sleet and snow.

What's the betting that this will be the boundary once again if the channel low scenario comes off?

If the centre of the low stays to the south then anywhere could see snow, even the coast, depending on temeperature.

[nick sussex]

What are it's FI verification-stats? Or, like me, do lots of people like blue and purple?

Its running 3rd behind the ECM and GFS at 144hrs:

Thankfully the UKMO has slipped into fourth as its 144hrs offering this evening was underwhelming, the last thing we want is that 144hrs output verifying!

[Jason M]

Its running 3rd behind the ECM and GFS at 144hrs:

Thankfully the UKMO has slipped into fourth as its 144hrs offering this evening was underwhelming, the last thing we want is that 144hrs output verifying!

JMA hasn't been too shabby based on those stats. Maybe not the cannon fodder that some think!

Jason

[snowking]

Its running 3rd behind the ECM and GFS at 144hrs:

Thankfully the UKMO has slipped into fourth as its 144hrs offering this evening was underwhelming, the last thing we want is that 144hrs output verifying!

I must admit I hadn't checked that for some days - pretty unbelieveable really for a model which, for the last 10 years (even dating back to the old BBC slowwatch days) has been the ECM's right hand man!

With that in mind we really do have to start looking at the 'big 4' now if we are still to include the UKMO. Could do with some upgrade work really (from the looks of things the GFS upgrade a few months back has given it a shot in the arm)

SK