Model Output Discussion 12z 30/11/2012

[Jonan92]

According to the GFS it seems that this time we will be a little apart here, in Northen Spain, but the Greenland High looks interesting, it first showed up in yersterday's 18z run, and today ECM did suggest it appearance, we will need to keep a close eye on it

Edited December 1, 2012 by Jonan92

[Jason T]

Blind theory the atlantic tropical wave ( the second one ) helps kick the jet up the western part of greenland-

That loop goes round the pole & kicks the euro trough south- where we want it-

chances 60%- so not over committing.

remember the driving features are at 102-

http://modeles.meteo...-0-1-108.png?18

Tropical wave developing SE atlantic will kick that energy thats over the NE states up the western part of greenland-

S

To what impact will that have on the UK. Would you mind posting a laymen term post after the Explicit jargon. Don't mean to be rude but for the lesser wanting to understand it can be quite difficult. Thank you.

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-216.png?18

So after our split flow gets up greenland at 108 we there some 4 days later- exactly like 2010

S

[chris55]

To many options on the GEFS 18z, confidence Low in any outcome as well at the Operational.

Although looking more into FI a fair few do create a good block to the east.

Edited December 1, 2012 by chris55

[SMU]

To what impact will that have on the UK. Would you mind posting a laymen term post after the Explicit jargon. Don't mean to be rude but for the lesser wanting to understand it can be quite difficult. Thank you.

Hi Jason

follow the GFS control- thats is the best explanation-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=6&carte=1&mode=0

look at the 120 chart with the 2 lows lining up in the atlantic-

THen 156 when they are forcing pressure to move North in the central atlantic- so under the umbrella what goes up must come down- if something is

going up in the atlantic then a form of energy will be moving south in Western Europe-

204- atlantic ridge joining with russian high-

The euro cold will head towards the UK-

Its all pretty straight forward really- hence the exceptional consistency from the GFS-

S

[bluearmy]

http://www.meteo24.fr/fr/home/meteo-france-et-europe/passion-meteo/ensemble-de-previsions.html?eps=london

getting colder as we head through the month. A check on warsaw, berlin and stockholm reveals all will be approaching a foot of snowcover by mid dec

[AWD]

18z NoGaps keeps things a bit simpler, and has the UK in rather cold uppers by T144;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php?ech=144&code=0&mode=1&carte=1&archive=0

With a ridge over the UK & up towards Iceland & a trough over Eastern UK;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php?ech=144&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0

Note another ridge setting up over Russia. If this run went further I would expect the two ridges to join up over Scandinavia somewhere.

[Jonan92]

This is an easterly

And in the final map of the Control Run we can see the energy being transfered from the Scandinavian High to the Greenland High

Amazing FI

Edited December 1, 2012 by Jonan92

[Cloud 10]

Just for fun,look at those 2m temperatures over Europe on the gefs control run.

Maybe a frozen pipe for Chio if that came off!

[SMU]

This is an easterly

And in the final map of the Control Run we can see the energy being transfered from the Scandinavian High to the Greenland High

Amazing FI

look at the even more extreme split flow over western greenland- that trumps even 2010-!

S

[SMU]

dont know why your getting excited over them charts because it is not going to happen.

Theres some irony in your commentary-

Heres the 18z at 120 on the 13th Nov 2010

http://modeles.meteo...18-0-120.png?18 Note the X2western atlantic lows- again???? shunt the jet North this is what you get

http://www.meteociel...chive=1&carte=1

follow that 18z its IDENTICAL in terms of Northern atlantic to tonights 18z

Then 18z

http://modeles.meteo...18-0-120.png?18

Tonight 120

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-120.png?18

S

Edited December 2, 2012 by Steve Murr

[keithlucky]

One question Steve what not stopping mild air pushing in from the s west on thursday?

[Catacol]

Back after a day out... scanning the op output it looks as though the heavyweight models are siding with the atlantic ridge to win the race and the siberian high to ease east. That is at least how it is today... might all change tomorrow... but in that context my first foray into an attempt to second guess the pattern at about a week out may be about to be shown to be tosh!

However... the final evolution is the same: scandy height rises and trough to our south. Under the atlantic ridge scenario it will take a few days more for the pressure systems to come into the sort of alignment we would need for genuine cold... but they get there anyway.

All very encouraging in terms of early winter. When a bit less tired I'll take a good look at it all in the morning. Night all.

[SMU]

name='keithlucky' timestamp='1354408440' post='2424545']

It will - the +0c isotherm will move across then await the colder uppers to move south again from iceland as the low scoopes them up-

We hope anyway!

S

[bluearmy]

One question Steve what not stopping mild air pushing in from the s west on thursday?

Physics !

actually, it doesnt look like it but there is blocking to our ne which diverts the jet se into europe and the depressions with it. Hence the flow becomes north of west and the higher uppers dont make it to the uk apart from in the transient warm sector.

[keithlucky]

Physics !

actually, it doesnt look like it but there is blocking to our ne which diverts the jet se into europe and the depressions with it. Hence the flow becomes north of west and the higher uppers dont make it to the uk apart from in the transient warm sector.

Thamks both cannot see HP LOL..

[Panayiotis]

So the tropical low has formed...its called Invest91L

Edited December 2, 2012 by panayiotis

[Jupiters Winter]

GFS 00Z Shifted further west at and upto T144 and this Should be an EPIC run if it continues to send heights into Grennland.

[Panayiotis]

Another trend, which has been showing for next Sunday,ridging into Greenland because of the 2 lows to the west of the high, with a northerly after that low dives SE.

Edited December 2, 2012 by panayiotis

[Wilxy]

GFS 00z a very good run with plenty of potential, exciting times ahead i feel.

I know the last chart is in deep FI but the name of the game in FI is to look for a trend, hopefully it continues

[Jupiters Winter]

UKMO at T144 compared to the GFS is saying no to heights going into greenland. Maybe slightly later than the GFS but on track

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

well im personally not overly keen on the 0z runs so far any route to cold looks like its going to be a very painful one with pressure remaining stubbornly low to the NW of the UK.

The UKMO in particular looks pretty flat at 144h,im struggling to see where a lot of the excitement on this thread is coming from to be honest and references to Dec 2010 have me really bemused,i very much doubt this Dec will be ANYTHING like 2010..

[Jupiters Winter]

ECM/UKMO T144 Minor differences - Flat. Still hold potential

[swfc]

Iwoudnt take anything post 92 hours as gospel.Ecm proves that now !!!!Also were in a less cold place than we are now "850s"wise at the end of this run??

Edited December 2, 2012 by swfc

[Duane S.]

Anybody looking/hoping for a super quick route to cold is going to be disappointed I'm afraid.

Hang in there, we are entering a transition period with regards the vortex setup as it starts to look to reform and then shift away from Greenland, it will look more favourable soon I'm sure and in the meantime it's hardly mild is it?