Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012

[Timmytour]

Whie there's talk of last minute turnarounds....I remember in January 1979 going to bed reluctantly coming to terms with what the weathermen were saying...that the Atlantic was roaring it and going to turn the falling snow to rain and melt the lying snow...a wet, windy and mild weekend was in prospect and I could feel the snow getting wetter and wetter as I went outside for one last look.

Next morning I woke up to six inches of freshly fallen snow.....the easterly was having none of it!!! :-)

[Bonjangle]

Whie there's talk of last minute turnarounds....I remember in January 1979 going to bed reluctantly coming to terms with what the weathermen were saying...that the Atlantic was roaring it and going to turn the falling snow to rain and melt the lying snow...a wet, windy and mild weekend was in prospect and I could feel the snow getting wetter and wetter as I went outside for one last look.

Next morning I woke up to six inches of freshly fallen snow.....the easterly was having none of it!!! :-)

I remember that here in wales , was walking in the rain with my mates , we hung out by the old red phone boxes ans all of a sudden the sleet went from rain to mix then...BANG ON snow fest , was amazing , we were so cold we all went into the phone box to warm up as the light gave out heat .

they were the days .

[Jupiters Winter]

GFS Further shift west on the 00Z again. MEGABLOCK

Edited December 5, 2012 by Jupiters Winter

[Snowy Easterlies]

yeah things are further west but heights are also a bit further south too, i will wait till the rest of the run finishes before judging though

Edit block is a lot stronger at T192 pressure might be a bit to high for most though, except for the southeast, a very cold run though and atlantic is further away, deep FI the high goes to greenland

Edited December 5, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Jupiters Winter]

Carnage and what a block once it sets up on the GFS

[Zenarcher]

In FI some energy goes under the heights and helps push it back up North over Greenland.

[Snowy Liverpool]

yeah things are further west but heights are also a bit further south too, i will wait till the rest of the run finishes before judging though

Only because the PV is moving along the top of the high to Siberia, freeing up Greenland for height rises. Temps would till be good enough for snow.

Shame about yet another disgraceful UKMO run though. The Atlantic is over us before the high has even reached us...

[Harve]

00z is also very good and probably just as cold as the 18z, if not colder. Conversely, it's less excellent on the snow side of things, especially for Scotland as a 1045 mb high is centred over the Shetlands. Consequently the very coldest air remains over France and Germany.

It goes without saying that charts like these are nothing to complain about. I'm simply comparing this run and the 'best case scenario' - which don't differ too much!

[Jupiters Winter]

I dont remember a chart like this either from a Beasterly to an Arctic invasion and PV where are you? Fits nicely with stratospheric signals... XMAS Could be special,

[Snowy Easterlies]

if the block was a bit further north on the GFS that would be an epic easterly for england not just the southeast

UKMO looks better than previous runs but is slower than GFS

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think the GFS 00z is just too good a run, much quicker than UKMO so will wait for further runs

BFTP

[trisnow]

Did the models spot this? Just woken up in Cambridge to this! Happy times

[Snowy Easterlies]

just goes to prove that the models get it wrong even at T0, as i have a covering outside only about 1 or 2cm though, no need to get jealous though lol

Edited December 5, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[chiller]

Looks like some real interest from next tuesday on GFS if I'm interpreting this right - is that a NE on the way? Reasonable cold uppers?

[If Wishes made Weather]

Very clean move to colder easterly conditions from the 0z with:

- 0c line moving from Europe west over the Atlantic right into Newfoundland,

- the PV migrating to Siberia; and,

- a northerly reload for us.

As in the 18z yesterday, by the end of FI with the PV over Siberia some very cold air getting (globally) close to Scotland and moving South.

[Jonan92]

BTW, intersting chart at t384h

PV moved from Canada to our east

Highs moved from Escandinavia to Greenland, so a GH very likely to happen in this chart

The result of this two changes could be awesome

[snowking]

Better looking ECM +120

That shortwave drops S slightly quicker than the 12z and further east too - assuming it carries on heading southwards then it should help to pull in the colder uppers quicker

HP linkup established too

SK

[fatyido]

Did the models spot this? Just woken up in Cambridge to this! Happy times

We have the same in St Neots, west Cambs- happy days

[snowking]

And here's the westwards correction beginning to show:

-6 uppers heading into the NE

SK

[Tom Montalbano]

Very exciting run developing from the 00z ECM.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Regards,

Tom

[Matty M]

GFS is MEGA

ECM has started MEGA

Hold on to your hats, the rollercoaster is starting

[snow drift]

Easterly at T144 on ECM. GFS is lovely and UKMO coming to join the party but slowly.T168 the time line is moving forward. Edited December 5, 2012 by snow drift

[Snowy Easterlies]

big upgrade by the ECM this morning block further west and stronger, this is all at T120 and T144 surely this can't be wrong, or can it ?

[snowking]

+168

-8c uppers across much of the UK, -10c just off the east coast, some deep convection beginning to take place

SK

[Snowmad79]

That is one hell of an eastelry flow developing on the ECM at T168. Even being FI I can't help but get exited by that chart!