Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012

[swfc]

The positioning of the high to the northeast is paramount.in needs to push west!!!!

[ITSY]

stronger Atlantic, yes, but that secondary Atlantic high should hold it at bay for the moment. Perhaps another upgrade so far on this run for the SE? Certainly Kent etc look like taking a potential battering with the 120-150 synoptics

[Snowman.]

Bingo

[ITSY]

Don't get too caught up in Atlantic details at this range, the pattern remains the same, with streamers setting up over EA and the SE by 150

[london-snow]

The positioning of the high to the northeast is paramount.in needs to push west!!!!

That positioning of that hp will chop and change over the next few days.

GFS = Solid as a rock as it has been 1 out of the big 3 down and 2 to come.

As i preached earlier i expect the UKMO to fall into line now !

[LomondSnowstorm]

UKMO at 120 hours looks a big improvement on previous runs:

[swilliam]

Disagree you compare the 6s to now not much change re Atlantic...

The difference is the trough to the S of Greenland is less favourably aligned to disrupt - let's hope it does though.

[LomondSnowstorm]

And bingo:

UKMO on track now

[Continental Climate]

definite upgrade this run for the whole UK http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.png!!! High further north better ridging and retrogression into greenland more WAA into greenland DEFINITE IMPROVEMENT

[Harsh Climate]

More WAA up western side of greenland than the 6z run, much more infact. This has to be a good thing!

[Cheshire Freeze]

WAA straight into the plateau of Greenland

Should help increase heights & low in Atlantic weakens.

[kold weather]

Hmmm the 12z GFS has a stronger and slightly less good placement of the PV and this WILL at some point put pressure on our block, we'll see how it evolves. At the very least we'll see the upper high bend right...which actually won't be a bad thing as it'd likely force a more pure easterly, rather than just an end of the line set-up like post Xmas 2005.

[Ian Brown]

Better than the 06z at the same stage, nice trough over Germany, should show a strengthening flow as the core of heights edges North.

[ITSY]

Come to papa

[swilliam]

I think we want the low heading NE out of NA to head upthe W side of Greenland like it did on the 06 (and not underneath it)

[kold weather]

The UKMO is an interesting one, I think its probably being rather premature with what its trying to do with an atlantic attack already at 144hrs...

But its been playing catch-up and so I suspect it'll still be wrong later...and even if its not that set-up almost certainly would bring someone a big fall...

Edited December 5, 2012 by kold weather

[Snowman.]

Best run so far everything seems further north with low pressure close delivering snow in the SE, FI yes but still.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Come to papa you lovely minus 10's http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1382.png!! I class it as a true cold spell when the air turns blue

Would be a lot nicer if those -10C were over us!

[Continental Climate]

decent UKMO as well http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2012120512/UN120-21.GIF?05-17!! What a good start to the afternoon!! COME ON ECM!!

[bradymk]

Bingo

GFS precipitation charts are not high res and really are useless at most timeframes let alone that sort of range so don't worry about anything precip charts show. Another impressive run from GFS and I would say now that next week, a good confidence level of a NE/Easterly but now it is how cold will it be? Ensemble means impressive and ECM Ens have handled this relatively well from the start.

[Buriedundersnow]

The UKMO is an interesting one, I think its probably being rather premature with what its trying to do with an atlantic attack already at 144hrs...

But its been playing catch-up and so I suspect it'll still be wrong later...and even if its not that set-up almost certainly would bring someone a big fall...

was the UKMO not just showing the undercut

[Anti-Mild]

Now that the UKMO is coming into line, you can almost guarantee that ECM will have a wobble, purely because the big 3 are in cahoots with Prozac!

[Southern Storm]

The UKMO is an interesting one, I think its probably being rather premature with what its trying to do with an atlantic attack already at 144hrs...

But its been playing catch-up and so I suspect it'll still be wrong later...and even if its not that set-up almost certainly would bring someone a big fall...

it would be the mother of all undercuts though.

[MR EXTREMES]

definite upgrade this run for the whole UK http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1501.png!!! High further north better ridging and retrogression into greenland more WAA into greenland DEFINITE IMPROVEMENT

complicated to say the least as for ukmo not good unless a undercut which is possible with heights to our north.

[PolarWarsaw]

UKMO & GFS reading from the same sort of book-

What's the bet the ECM doesn't fancy a read later this evening?