Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Not sure i should have looked at the GFS 12z

[Bradowl]

Just emailed Santa and told him not to bother because we'll not have any snow.

[Zakos]

winter is over

[UV-RAY]

Phwoooar, modeltastic, orgasmic, 100% verification chance.....

and only T+1848 hours away....I'm counting those seconds by, COUNTING THEM!!!

It's an outlier! Edited December 7, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[Zenarcher]

[Dampdorset82]

just to sum it up.....

being a meteorologist is like being a scientific bookmaker!

[Pixel]

A question I've always wanted to ask... but were afraid till now

Will there be a Thames streamer on Christmas Day 2012?

[weather eater]

Good I can plonk this here its my moan from this morning that I thought wise not to post despite really really wanting to

I’m glad I spend most of my time on the fence, upgrades, downgrades, it’s all the same to me, I don’t get sucked in to the hype or despair, so for me the model thread is like watching a car crash from the other side of the central reservation. Frankly all sorts of solutions are still on offer because synoptic evolutions do not stand still, despite the efforts of the glass half full and the glass half empty brigades, one group too quick to hype model projections and the other to quick to throw the towel in. Of the members who contribute to the model thread only a handful actually view the models in an analytical and dispassionate way which is a shame, the rest take the optimism or pessimism approach, one group do it to score points the other for kudos which amounts to the same thing, same thing year after year.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Saying winter is over after 1 bad run is silly really for eg when you buy a lotto ticket you dont rip ticket up if the first numbers not yours saying sod it i aint gna win nothing just stupid

[Dampdorset82]

just to sum it up.....

being a meteorologist is like being a scientific bookmaker!

[Joneseye]

Just so you know I posted into this thread as I like to follow rules. :-D

OK come on who's promised their kids and friends snowmageddon and is now going to have to backtrack? I did post 'that chart' from the ECM on Facebook the other day when slightly sozzled on Shiraz, but did put a massive caveat on it. Should I go into hiding?

As a member of this site since the early days and an all year round follower of the models I do find that the best modelled situations tend to be the default Zonal SW patterns. Whenever something 'interesting' i.e. non default comes along they really struggle to get to grips with those solutions. Anything more than 5 days ahead in Zonal situations tends to be FI in my mind. In non standard I would say the macro level is 72 hours for FI and that nowcasting is best for the specifics be it snow, T-storms and amounts of precip.

[UV-RAY]

Just so you know I posted into this thread as I like to follow rules. :-D

OK come on who's promised their kids and friends snowmageddon and is now going to have to backtrack? I did post 'that chart' from the ECM on Facebook the other day when slightly sozzled on Shiraz, but did put a massive caveat on it. Should I go into hiding?

As a member of this site since the early days and an all year round follower of the models I do find that the best modelled situations tend to be the default Zonal SW patterns. Whenever something 'interesting' i.e. non default comes along they really struggle to get to grips with those solutions. Anything more than 5 days ahead in Zonal situations tends to be FI in my mind. In non standard I would say the macro level is 72 hours for FI and that nowcasting is best for the specifics be it snow, T-storms and amounts of precip.

I promised my daughter the very same on the last non event, I won't be making that mistake again in a hurry! Edited December 7, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[snowstorm445]

I really hope this thread will be put to good use, and not just forgotten about. Frankly I am sick to the back teeth of the bellyaching over on the model discussion, and no matter how strong the appeal, it always manages to make an appearance.

Some people have absolutely no interest in the weather, just the prospect of blizzards. If you are going to comment on a weather forum I think we should be prepared for whatever the weather throws at us. If the summer doesn't show any potential for summery periods, or drops them from the models after good runs, it's upsetting but I'm hardly going to be greiving it. Why is winter always different?

[John Cox]

Yes, but in FI John, again. We will be chasing it forever (I do hope I'm wrong but that's what it feels like).

Hi Somerset squall,

Its better chasing something that might happen in FI than expecting something great in the short term that dosent happen

[snowstorm445]

Such a frustrating period of model watching at the moment, it's hard to not rant.

What I find personally so very annoying is, that during the periods where the charts look great (at t168 and later) 95% of the forum and model thread contributors/watchers go into 'siberian express', 'lets buy the shovels' mode, blindly analysing every single frame section by section, run by run - talking about 'snow moving in from the south at t210' - yet the very second I or someone else pops in and makes a comment such as, 'its all in FI', 'there will be inveitable dramas', 'stop getting overally excited' and so I get my head taken off for not enjoying the charts, being negative and not getting into the 'swing of things'.

This is the SECOND, YES 2ND lesson of winter and we are only in the 2nd week of December. The models LEAD us up the garden path virtually everyday on a compilation of many different outcomes. It's why it becomes so frustrating and comments of 'told you so' come out of my mouth to thoose that sniped and swashed at my opinion. The climate and location we live in is so volatile in situations regarding winter its incredible, we may see 25 consistent GFS runs in addition to ECM/UKMO broadly reading the same hymn sheet all at t144, BUT that does not matter.

Just a few final notes of my rant.

*UNTIL THE WEATHER COMES INTO T48 - CHANCES ARE IT WONT! HAPPEN.

*DO NOT TAKE ANYTHING AFTER T48 AS GOSPEL, OR ANYTHING LIKE THAT.

*COLD SPELLS WILL ALWAYS* BE MODELED WELL, BETTER OR PERFECTLY AT T168 - DONT GET REMOTELY EXCITED OR POSITIVE ABOUT THEM

*DONT COUNT ANY CHICKENS.

*DONT RAMP ANYTHING UP UNTIL ITS ON YOUR DOORSTEP

*LASTLY - FOR GOD SAKE, DO NOT! UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES GET CAUGHT UP ON ANYTHING MODELED, OR WHAT ANYONE SAYS, AT ANYPOINT. THE TELECONNECTIONS HAVE BEEN PERFECT* FOR WEEKS NOW AND EVEN THOUGH GP,STEVE, NICK & CO HAVE CORRECTLY POINTED OUT EVERYTHING IS IN PLACE SO TO SPEAK, I'VE NOT SEEN A SNOWFLAKE YET.

Rant over.

Of course, preferably another rule should be not to pollute the forum with incessant doom-mongering or pessimism.

Would you not agree?

[Bradowl]

Just so you know I posted into this thread as I like to follow rules. :-D

OK come on who's promised their kids and friends snowmageddon and is now going to have to backtrack? I did post 'that chart' from the ECM on Facebook the other day when slightly sozzled on Shiraz, but did put a massive caveat on it. Should I go into hiding?

As a member of this site since the early days and an all year round follower of the models I do find that the best modelled situations tend to be the default Zonal SW patterns. Whenever something 'interesting' i.e. non default comes along they really struggle to get to grips with those solutions. Anything more than 5 days ahead in Zonal situations tends to be FI in my mind. In non standard I would say the macro level is 72 hours for FI and that nowcasting is best for the specifics be it snow, T-storms and amounts of precip.

I am in same boat. Going to look such a fool at work next week.

On a positive note some models are pointing towards an Easterly around 21st.

Think I´ll keep this quite until about 20th.

Edited December 7, 2012 by Bradowl

[IDO]

IF they are handling the shortwave wrong though, it's going to have a knock on effect later in the run and this lifts the mean. If the shortwave develops more favourably like on the colder ensembles then we'll see all those milder ensembles suddenly flip back to cold.

Straw clutching though, we're getting pretty close to the beginning of the event now, upgrade time is running out.

Trying to be glass half full. Reality sucks.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

this for western areas is going to be snowless, and a 27th Dec 2010 style breakdown on thursday with a whimper

so its 3 cold days, then rain on thursday for the west

[minus 9]

Even with all the computing power there is these days. The models will never be accurate 7 days in advance. not even in 50 years time. the weather will do what the hell it wants.

[Somerset Squall]

Hi Somerset squall,

Its better chasing something that might happen in FI than expecting something great in the short term that dosent happen

Haha I can see your point John LOL.

Personally I will only get excited or truly believe that it may happen once it's inside T+72, save a lot of dissapointment that way. Having said that, it can just as easily switch back to a BEASTERLY again. But I will only believe if it comes within T+72 as I said.

Edited December 7, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[tomavenell]

Don't forget people that the models can change again in the space of a couple of runs and give our easterly back as quickly as it took it away.

[P-M]

Well all I can say is that our local news must be still getting drip fed info because it's on after the break and the main headline just then "tips in how to drive in ice Siberian winter is on the way" so I am baffled even more so now to make it the main headline tonight if there is no chance of a major cold spell as per some posts on here...

Edited December 7, 2012 by Wishful-Thinking

[The Northern Ramper]

The ECM is going to throw us a lifeline, watch this space.

[Evening thunder]

Blergh.

[Weather-history]

A fix or easterly fans