Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[Gord]

Another crumb of comfort is that we are already ahead of where we were in December 2011. I still don't think I had a frost yet at this time last year.

We'll just have to keep waiting...if it was mid-March and we had just been through a mild snowless winter and this was happening..then maybe there would be cause for getting annoyed. But we're not and all we can do is enjoy the festivities in the real world and hope the weather comes around to what we want eventually....anyway, even winters like 2011/2012 can produce the odd day.

And we're having our 2nd sunny Saturday in a row...so things aren't that bad!

[stewfox]

Ah well, we still have 10 weeks of winter to look forward to, with promising teleconnective signals...

I'm a recovering model addict, I've been clean and without a fix now for 10 minutes now. I keep going back to the models , I just need to keep it simple and keep it in the day.

10 more weeks of keep going back it will work if you work it ?? Whats that I see at T384 better have a look.

[Weather-history]

Well my forecast still has a chance, it would have sunk if the easterly set in a month early!

I believed it was only a matter of a time that April and indeed June and September who have for so long not returned a month that was at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average would statistically have to do so. Infact all 3 did so in the same year!

I'm using that same train of thought with this winter forecast.

We have not had a Scandinavian high bringing a notable easterly during the height of winter for some years. Infact we've not a Scandinavian high dominated winter for some years of the 1995-96 type.

So I believe that we may see a notable cold snowy easterly during January of the late January 1996 type.

I think December will be fairly wet and unsettled but not specially mild, a bit like December 1993. The further north, you are the more wintry potential, there will be.

January will be much drier and anticyclonic with a cold snowy easterly brought by an intense Scandi high around mid to late month. A lot of snow in the east. As a consequence, it will be a cold month, close to January 2010 in terms of coldness, maybe colder.

When was the last time we saw a cold spell breakdown bringing a widespread snowfall? Well for February, during the early part of the month, this is what I will be going for but because of the nature of the Scandi high block, I am going for a February 1994 scenario where there were a couple of breakdowns but the block over Scandi high reasserted itself. So a fairly cold month with some spells of rain, sleet and snow, the intensity and location of the snowfalls depending how far the fronts can make into the UK.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Another crumb of comfort is that we are already ahead of where we were in December 2011. I still don't think I had a frost yet at this time last year.

We'll just have to keep waiting...if it was mid-March and we had just been through a mild snowless winter and this was happening..then maybe there would be cause for getting annoyed. But we're not and all we can do is enjoy the festivities in the real world and hope the weather comes around to what we want eventually....anyway, even winters like 2011/2012 can produce the odd day.

And we're having our 2nd sunny Saturday in a row...so things aren't that bad!

No Dec 2011 was better than this Dec, i had 3 days of heavy wet snow, 16th-18th, its not unrealistic to say I will not see a flake of snow this Dec

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Im thinking a period of mobile weather is inevitable now,god i hope this winter doesn't end up like last year,eeek.

[Gord]

No Dec 2011 was better than this Dec, i had 3 days of heavy wet snow, 16th-18th, its not unrealistic to say I will not see a flake of snow this Dec

But it's only the 8th December today...I'm only commenting on it up to this point.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Well my forecast still has a chance, it would have sunk if the easterly set in a month early!

I believed it was only a matter of a time that April and indeed June and September who have for so long not returned a month that was at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average would statistically have to do so. Infact all 3 did so in the same year!

I'm using that same train of thought with this winter forecast.

We have not had a Scandinavian high bringing a notable easterly during the height of winter for some years. Infact we've not a Scandinavian high dominated winter for some years of the 1995-96 type.

So I believe that we may see a notable cold snowy easterly during January of the late January 1996 type.

I think December will be fairly wet and unsettled but not specially mild, a bit like December 1993. The further north, you are the more wintry potential, there will be.

January will be much drier and anticyclonic with a cold snowy easterly brought by an intense Scandi high around mid to late month. A lot of snow in the east. As a consequence, it will be a cold month, close to January 2010 in terms of coldness, maybe colder.

When was the last time we saw a cold spell breakdown bringing a widespread snowfall? Well for February, during the early part of the month, this is what I will be going for but because of the nature of the Scandi high block, I am going for a February 1994 scenario where there were a couple of breakdowns but the block over Scandi high reasserted itself. So a fairly cold month with some spells of rain, sleet and snow, the intensity and location of the snowfalls depending how far the fronts can make into the UK.

Feb 4th 2012 was decent breakdown I thought, snow lasted over a week in patches

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

look at that jet streak at 108h,with heights building across the south and the failure of the siberian high to retrogress i thhink a spell of atlantic gunk is looking nailed on for the run up to chrimbo,just like last year.

joy.

[Weather-history]

Feb 4th 2012 was decent breakdown I thought, snow lasted over a week in patches

I'm going for the more classical breakdown up from the SW

[Matty M]

look at that jet streak at 108h,with heights building across the south and the failure of the siberian high to retrogress i thhink a spell of atlantic gunk is looking nailed on for the run up to chrimbo,just like last year.

joy.

YEP we need it veered as far south as possible. If the Scandy high doesnt play ball, the horrible ECM 0z is the likely outcome.

We have moved to a 80% for southwesterlies and 20% for cyclonic cold/cold breakdown

[Bristawl Si]

Read Steve's post from the early hours - Brilliant post quite frankly.

I'll just take a much simpler view - we're an island whose weather is predominately dominated by the Atlantic. Even if it's not DIRECTLY influencing all the time it's more often than not STILL very much influencing.

Therefore, the 'default' is we'll more often than not fall on 'the wrong side' of any boundary between a cold continent and a milder or less cold Atlantic side of Europe. Not always, but most of the time.

[Harve]

No Dec 2011 was better than this Dec, i had 3 days of heavy wet snow, 16th-18th, its not unrealistic to say I will not see a flake of snow this Dec

I also enjoyed December 2011. It was snowy and rather stormy with sleet or snow falling almost every day between the 3rd and the 17th... and then I went to 1900m in France where things got manic on the snow side of things. The first three weeks provided a great contrast from the preceding December while still feeling very much like a winter month.

However, the prognosis at this time last year was far worse than it is now, so if you got three days of heavy snow then, you've got every chance of seeing snowfall this month. Away from coasts and Cornwall, most winter months in lowland England do have transient snowfall.

[UV-RAY]

One thing which may have scuppered people's predictions was the increase in Solar output during November.

[Methuselah]

They think it's all over...

It is now!

[AGAL]

Ah well, we still have 10 weeks of winter to look forward to, with promising teleconnective signals...

And that is 'nailed on'.

Hmmm I never want to see that phrase again -not in the 'reliable time' anyway.

[Weather-history]

I am becoming increasing of the opinion that Steve Murr may actually be jinxed. It feels the greater his certainty of the easterly, the greater the uncertainty in it the models become.

Edited December 8, 2012 by Weather-history

[bradymk]

It is quite painful reading back the forum from the 5th of December....anyway over to chasing the next cold spell, it wont be long!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Posted by GP on 3rd December

12z GEFS suite is very strong on blocking to our N and NE, with an equally strong (if not stronger) signature for block to retrogress towards Greenland in the extended frames as the pv is transferred towards Siberia (which has been a consistent signal now for a few days).

Get set. It's coming.

What happened?

[AGAL]

I get up bleary eyed and the first thing I do is check my barometer the TWO model forum not because I'm having a pop at TWO but I know it well and you you can immediatly see the amount of people using the forum and it was something like sixty compared to very constant high figures over the last few day. Hey Ho.

There is without doubt the same users here as over on TWO and we are all very dissapointed and dare say humiliated a tad as many of us would like to pride ourselves that we know more than the average person and therefore would have let people around us know whether personal or work related. that a very unusual cold spell was on its way There is also a little bit of turning on each other as we were all happy as that proverbial sandboy just a day ago. We were all excited eagerly awaiting the easterly and what better build up to Christmas for all of us. There then follows a disaapointed falling out with personal criscism showing here and there but towards eachother not the models .

However you can't blame machines and we shouldn't blame eachother. Saying that though there is a 'collective' blame and that is never learning that bthese models are useless. If we went back before the age of the internet we would have no such access and therefore ignorance was bliss. Yes iit's perfectly understandable that many -including me -feel bitterlly (unlike next week) let down but there is only one lesson to be drawn here -don't believe anymodel past several days as they are still useless pitched against the real world,

Edited December 8, 2012 by AGAL

[Lynxus]

Agreed,

Its the same every year..

People saying how well everything looks and then "Binning" models because they dont align with what they want.

EVERY YEAR! i hear bin bin bin bin bin FI FI FI FI FI , BIN BIN BIN... If people would ACTUALLY take note of what is starting to trend and show on the models other than BIN BIN BIN, then people may not get quite as worked up.

That said,

Things change.

For example, The Huge low that seems to stall could well stall further west with a stronger push from the east, Rather than sinking the west country, We could all freeze to death by 20ft of snow.

All it takes is for a HP to our east to take hold or move into a better position and the whole lot changes.

Ive said it before and I will say it again ( and more likely again a few more times ) The models ( Esp the GFS ) cant handle weather being governed by the east. We simply dont get enough of it for the models to have any meaningful data.

This is why it chops and changes so much.

You also need to remember that the GFS for example is very much an Atlantic driven model, It will always show the west LP's being stronger until up to 12 hours sometimes.

Last year was the same, GFS would overdo the west and it simply never happened... Im not saying this is the case now but its work noting when looking at these models.

If others show the east as being stronger than what the GFS says then its quite possibly true and the GFS overdoing it.

I talk about the GFS as this is what most people end up looking at without spending a bit more time looking through the others.

Im confident that we will get some good cold weather at some point and im pretty damn sure that this LP to our west due to arrive in a week will not be anywhere near as strong.

We can only hope that the east takes control more than expected.

THings can change quickly and they often do.

[Chris K]

Well I hope what's being shown in the GFS and ECM runs this morning doesn't happen because there is still surface water hanging about in farmers fields and blocking country lanes here in my area. Worrying times ahead after this ridiculous turn around if it verifies.

[AGAL]

Agreed,

Its the same every year..

People saying how well everything looks and then "Binning" models because they dont align with what they want.

EVERY YEAR! i hear bin bin bin bin bin FI FI FI FI FI , BIN BIN BIN... If people would ACTUALLY take note of what is starting to trend and show on the models other than BIN BIN BIN, then people may not get quite as worked up.

That said,

Things change.

For example, The Huge low that seems to stall could well stall further west with a stronger push from the east, Rather than sinking the west country, We could all freeze to death by 20ft of snow.

All it takes is for a HP to our east to take hold or move into a better position and the whole lot changes.

Ive said it before and I will say it again ( and more likely again a few more times ) The models ( Esp the GFS ) cant handle weather being governed by the east. We simply dont get enough of it for the models to have any meaningful data.

This is why it chops and changes so much.

You also need to remember that the GFS for example is very much an Atlantic driven model, It will always show the west LP's being stronger until up to 12 hours sometimes.

Last year was the same, GFS would overdo the west and it simply never happened... Im not saying this is the case now but its work noting when looking at these models.

If others show the east as being stronger than what the GFS says then its quite possibly true and the GFS overdoing it.

I talk about the GFS as this is what most people end up looking at without spending a bit more time looking through the others.

Im confident that we will get some good cold weather at some point and im pretty damn sure that this LP to our west due to arrive in a week will not be anywhere near as strong.

We can only hope that the east takes control more than expected.

THings can change quickly and they often do.

Okay I take that as back to model watching again LOL

[AGAL]

What still gets me every year is this: Why are these massive model flips always and I mean always, biased to Mild?

I still don't get how all of the models only saw something that was a fundamental huge change -at the last moment? It's like having a car go into reverse gear as it was approaching cruising speed-unbelievable.

Do these computers secretly talk to each other and try to deliberately wind us up and let us go banging blindly into the skirting boards of disappointment as opposed to through the architraving of desire

Edited December 8, 2012 by AGAL

[AGAL]

Well I hope what's being shown in the GFS and ECM runs this morning doesn't happen because there is still surface water hanging about in farmers fields and blocking country lanes here in my area. Worrying times ahead after this ridiculous turn around if it verifies.

Well I wouldn't be too dissapointed if UKMO's computer in Exeter suffered flood damage. It surely has it coming.

One down three to go.

[bluearmy]

UNTIL SHAUN WILMER CHANGES HIS USERNAME BACK FROM 'SEVERE SIBERIAN ICY BLAST' WE'LL NEVER SEE ONE !! COME ON SHAUN, JUST ENOUGH TIME BEFORE THE ATLANTIC ONSLAUGHT GETS MODELLED TOO FAR TO OUR EAST TO BE REVERSED BY THE RUSSIAN BLOCK !!