Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[Summer Sun]

A white Christmas in FI tonight *ding ding seconds out round 2*

[Chris K]

RIDICULOUS

Ahhhh thats better. Time for a

[bobbydog]

the GFS has been hacked! someone pasted those last few frames in just to wind us up!! grrr.....

[Zenarcher]

[Azores Hi]

..and there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth...

[syncmaster]

I think if we were all truthfull this was never gonna happen like it was shown a few days ago, dont get me wrong I love snow as much as anybody bein a retired (skier)I tend to think looking at things now come mid month get this little glitch out the way things will turn around and the high pressure will feed back west as GP and others have predicted. This never was goin to be a easy transformation with the vortex moving across to siberia, and the models have come up with the best predictions that they could come up with, thats not sayin they have got it correct but even computer programs have limits Im very optimistic for later in december into the new year which really would be more realistic and tie in better with stratepheric conditions not really a moan or a ramp but somewhere a bit more conducive to the longer range pattern which as been shown for some time..

Dave..

[EML Network]

Quite unbelievable really, we've gone from raging Easterly to the polar opposite in the space of 5 days, if you look at the FAX charts, the 528 dam line doesn't even make it further than the mid UK, what was being shown as snow heaven isn't even going to be as cold as it has been this week (if the progression of the Atlantic keeps getting brought forward).

I feel more sorry for those up North, who are likely to see copious amounts of snowfall, only to see it vanish a few hours later.

As for FI and another Easterly being shown just in time for X-MAS....well I won't believe it until it's on my door step and knowing our luck the first few flakes will start to fall, just as the world ends on 21st.

If I could, I would make a quick dash to where that pesky Short Wave is due to develop armed with 100,000 people and a silly amount of cows and baked beans.

[SnowObsessor90]

If things keep going at this rate then it wouldn't surprise me if we saw conditions like this again come Christmas day one year on:

Ah well it least it would be 'mild'.

Edited December 8, 2012 by Anonymous21

[bradymk]

Interesting similarities between the current GFS and a certain very cold winter celebrating its anniversary this year!

[Zenarcher]

If things keep going at this rate then it wouldn't surprise me if we saw conditions like this again come Christmas day one year on:

Ah well it least it would be 'mild'.

Christmas day last year brought gusts over 100mph to Shetland,

EMERGENCY services in Shetland had an exceptionally busy Christmas as storm force winds battered the islands with gusts of around 100 mph.

There were no reports of injury but the list of damage to property is long. At the height of the storm on Christmas Day (Sunday) 5,500 households were without power.

http://www.shetnews.co.uk/news/4409-storm-damage

[Liam J]

Quite a disturbed look to the charts next week and it looks like wind & rain could well be making the headlines and causing disruption across the UK.

[ChartViewer]

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/117

region of NW Europe, to get any sort of prolonged cold, wintry weather, we really need a large (in horizontal extent), slow-moving, intense anticyclone - primary centre northern/arctic Russia (probably in excess of 1045 mbar central pressure) - with a strong and persistent ridge extending westwards over Scandinavia - spawning occasional discrete but reasonably 'solid' individual high cells around the periphery; these cells from time-to-time taking over as the primary focus of high pressure.

We did (although too far north and east) but we didnt get cold ...well long term cold!

Edited December 8, 2012 by ChartViewer

[Summer Sun]

From Joe B on Twitter

Just got a look at the new ECMWF monthlies. If true, this will be the coldest winter in Europe overall since at least the 1980s.

Eur: While there will be some let up for Jan, this will be the coldest winter since the onslaught of cold winter periods began 4 winters ago

Right now for Weatherbell Euro forecast i am lining up winters since 1950 to show people how cold this one will be Top 5 blend

Euro Winter will be colder than last 3, perhaps coldest since 62-63. Posting on http://Weatherbell.com premium within hour

[london-snow]

I think it just goes to prove that no matter how clever you are the weather is always one step ahead of you and makes fools out of the most respected forecaster`s in the world.

You can have all the billion pounds worth of data avaliable in the world to hand and guidence from the strat and other background factors but you will always be behind the eight ball.

Those who keep going on about a second bite of the cherry are doing my head in to be honest. Yes it may well happen but there is never any promise when your looking into fi.

I think i am going to have a break from the models & the forum mainly due to spending too much time on here and getting let down time after time & of course using up all of my internet credit. I will be back though but only when i hear the cold weather is less than 48 hours away and the tv forecaster say`s its a certain.

Until then bye for now & if we do not get a cold spell before christmas then have a great one.

London Snow

[Matty M]

Well the 12z OPS UKM and GFS show a really grim winter pattern with a period of stormy weather in the offing.

You can be sure of one thing, when the models all agree on a westerly pattern they will be right. Unfortunately just the way of the model world.

RIP Faux Easterly 2012.

[Adam lufc]

Pretty depressed today with the model output December running away quickly now. Soon be jan....

[weatherguy]

Well, back to chasing T+240 we go!

No real cold here, but the north hemisphere pattern looks very promising. I've had a bout of model fatigue over the last couple of days, but...

I'M READY, ROLL ON THE REMAINING 11 WEEKS OF WINTER!

PS - I'm really confused where to post now...I've put this in here, but I'm not sure what merits a post in the forecasting model discussion now; surely a moan/ramp is still discussing the models as long as you're basing those opinions off what the models are showing?

Edited December 8, 2012 by weatherguy

[Iceni]

Well the 12z OPS UKM and GFS show a really grim winter pattern with a period of stormy weather in the offing.

You can be sure of one thing, when the models all agree on a westerly pattern they will be right. Unfortunately just the way of the model world.

RIP Faux Easterly 2012.

Look at it this way, Christmas is still slightly less than three weeks away and I'd far rather get all the storms and wet over with beforehand and Christmas week to be clear cold and frosty. It would be highly unusual for it to rain every day for the next 19 days.

I'm not sure where the newspapers got their headlines from regarding next week's Arctic conditions, but the MetO still had their amber warnings up this morning, so maybe it was from them. It's no good a certain person flouncing off because their models turned everything on its head over the last couple of days… and it's no good us putting all of our faith in a set of computer projections which are possibilities not probabilities. Sometimes the models are about as advanced and reliable as the Ancient Romans discussing a pig's liver to see if Caesar would win a battle.

[lindy2017]

I think it just goes to prove that no matter how clever you are the weather is always one step ahead of you and makes fools out of the most respected forecaster`s in the world.

You can have all the billion pounds worth of data avaliable in the world to hand and guidence from the strat and other background factors but you will always be behind the eight ball.

Those who keep going on about a second bite of the cherry are doing my head in to be honest. Yes it may well happen but there is never any promise when your looking into fi.

I think i am going to have a break from the models & the forum mainly due to spending too much time on here and getting let down time after time & of course using up all of my internet credit. I will be back though but only when i hear the cold weather is less than 48 hours away and the tv forecaster say`s its a certain.

Until then bye for now & if we do not get a cold spell before christmas then have a great one.

London Snow

wE HAD SNOW YESTERDAY ....and its mainly - conditions here ............and snow predicted mid next week for us /........

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Yup,what a dud!! And im already tiring of looking at glam synoptics out in lala land,the reality is that we need everything to fall into place for us and 99% of the time,there is a piece of the jigsaw missing or going AWOL at 120 to 144hrs.

Back end of next week looks awful,ie wet and windy.

[MR EXTREMES]

how has all this come about i do hold some of the more experienced posters to blame but then there only saying what the charts are showing i do though think jan feb are going to be very wintry but i said this long before the silly hype of december 2012.

but i for sure have lernt a lesson in this day and age 2010 was a rare event.

[Timmytour]

Hands up here....my interest in the models came second to my interest in extreme weather and especially snow. I remember the days of hating missing the 25 past midnight forecast on radio 4, or the countryfile week forecast. Since coming to this forum I have learned a lot and now don't put such a priority on getting the weather from other sources. But it's still mostly my yearning for the cold and snow that brings me here.

I don't pretend to be an expert but do enjoy having an attempt at seeing what direction the models are going in and what might pre-empt a change in them in a following run. And i really do enjoy rreading the interpretations of those I regard as experts. Also, i understand the posts of those who are excited fo a moment, then let down the next.

I love the forum. I don't understand why people get worked up to the extent they do. Whether we are expressing our desire for a certain type of weather or our predictions for a certain type we are not causing the weather to be what it ultimately is, nor are we to blame for what it ultimately does.

I have a weird feeling. When THAT EC came out, I found myself more inclined to exercise caution rather than get as excited as i once would have done. And now the outlook has somewhat changed, I am becoming more and more convinced that the models will end up predicting our weather to be more influenced by the east than by the Atlantic in the next couple of days. A shift of a few hundred miles, small scale in global terms, makes such a difference to us. I think we've seen the downside of that shift lately. I think we are about to see the upside of it and I'm a fan of the GFS 18z intoducing the changes that set the trend.

I know how frustrating watching the models can be. I support Spurs!

[Pixel]

Hands up here....my interest in the models came second to my interest in extreme weather and especially snow. I remember the days of hating missing the 25 past midnight forecast on radio 4, or the countryfile week forecast. Since coming to this forum I have learned a lot and now don't put such a priority on getting the weather from other sources. But it's still mostly my yearning for the cold and snow that brings me here.

I don't pretend to be an expert but do enjoy having an attempt at seeing what direction the models are going in and what might pre-empt a change in them in a following run. And i really do enjoy rreading the interpretations of those I regard as experts. Also, i understand the posts of those who are excited fo a moment, then let down the next.

I love the forum. I don't understand why people get worked up to the extent they do. Whether we are expressing our desire for a certain type of weather or our predictions for a certain type we are not causing the weather to be what it ultimately is, nor are we to blame for what it ultimately does.

I know how frustrating watching the models can be. I support Spurs!

It's one of my hobbies too, full of memories of days gone by staring out of the window as a child hoping it was going to snow - As an enthusiastic 7 yrs old I built a lego snow making machine - I got my parents to wind it up really fast to make the snow come... and it worked ! So to find this forum as an adult has brought many hours of pleasure and I've learnt.. not a lot compared to some but I'm on the case.

The weather is just so magical, it's randomness and somewhat teasing predictability fascinating. Just have a look at this below and tell me whats going to happen next:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NHEM/animweur.html

pure beauty in my eyes - smiley happy face

Long may the ups and downs continue - it's all part of the fun

r spurs a football team btw

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Maybe....just maybe we will get to March and all look back at a lovely winter we just had and what was we worried about

[mpkio2]

I must say, the overall mood in todays forums are really "doom and gloom". As a "Coldie" fan and seeing the easterly the GFs and ECM were predicting a few days gone now vanished from our eyes, I too feel really dissapointed and absolutley de-heartened.

But we must remember, it is still only December 7th people! We still have the rest of the month and Jan/Feb to look forward to! And most cold winters didn;t occur until AFTER Christmas time (1962/1963 anyone?).

So far I'm concenred, theres still much more to look forward to. Like I said, I'm dissapointed about the vanished Easterly, but like GP and Chinco (and others of the like) have pointed out, there is still much more to look forward to further down the line.

So lets stop with all the moaning and groaning and lets keep it positive for the next batch of runs to come out.

Roll on the 18z...