Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[paul m]

Could be worse, you could support Pompey like meee

Whats wrong with pompey!!!!!! Im getting my pledge into the pst asap

[kumquat]

You mean like the anagram of Rybis Ponce?

Spicy Boner?

[PeteB]

Large percentage of severe winters in late 70s and early 80s didn't get going until after Christmas.

Sure, 1981 is the only one I can think of in that time period. Since I've lived out here (51 years) I can only remember 5, or 6 winters with at least an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas day.

Pete

[Snowmad79]

Whilst the forum is now in its quieter more stable period, I just wanted to add in a link that I have done in previous winter seasons regarding Ensemble forecasting and how it really is only a guide and not a supreme forecast tool.

Spread on today's ensembles still starts around the 13th of December. The more spread, the more uncertain any forecast will be!. In situations where the cluster does not remain tight, the verifying synoptic could fall anywhere between the lowest and highest reading (or member). Also importantly:

"It is common for the ensemble spread to be too small to incorporate the solution which verifies, which can lead to a misdiagnosis of model uncertainty"

Lets face it guys, making a final judgement of the outcome from 12th DEC onwards would be crazy considering there is still fair amount of spread on ensembles runs.

Here's the wiki page which I find very interesting. For newer members to read or for pro's to reflect on

http://en.wikipedia....ble_forecasting

Goodnight and god bless

Edit: just to reflect on hysteria during the night about possibilities of a big battle between the Atlantic and the block and possible undercutting. There is no new trend. There was still support for energy slipping under the block in Saturday morning runs in the form of the UKMO 00z output and plenty of ensemble members or peturbations. So if LP does slip low and zip across the channel area it most certainly isn't a new trend. The senario was always there, just buried under mild muck! imo.

Edited December 9, 2012 by Snowmad79

[Snowmad79]

Way to go mods, I had a post that I made Saturday morning showing undercutting of the block still had support and wanted to quote it again in the model thread only you've deleted that entire thread!!!!!!!!

Re-reading the current model thread and all the posting talking about the battleground between the Atlantic and Block and undercutting. Atleast 2 of us posted Saturday morning that support has always been there for undercutting and that the Atlantic senario was not as clear cut and tonight people have jumped on the possibilities like its a new trend.

Shame some sensible posts are overlooked or ignored as being wrong, ramps or straw cluchting!!!

[pottyprof]

Way to go mods, I had a post that I made Saturday morning showing undercutting of the block still had support and wanted to quote it again in the model thread only you've deleted that entire thread!!!!!!!!

If you look through the forum, you'll see this little area.... http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/162-model-forum-archive/

[Swave Snow]

If you look through the forum, you'll see this little area.... http://forum.netweat...-forum-archive/

It is not in there.

Edited December 9, 2012 by Swave Snow

[Chris D]

It is not in there in fact even this thread is no visible any longer.

Every thread is visible for quite some time.

[Wilxy]

Upgrade on this mornings 00z with the atlantic delayed and the cold air still with us at 96h with a more SE'erly flow.

[michesnowsbest1]

looking good

have been a member since 2006 but my old account got messed up with my fb account so this is my 1st post with old name but new acc

Edited December 9, 2012 by michesnowsbest1

[Swave Snow]

Hope this is not an outlier its looking very blocked with more hints of an almighty undercut at 114 hrs looks like the undercut would allow the heights to join up from Russia to Greenland

[Wilxy]

It seems like the block is stronger on this run, i think this block towards russia is slowly being upgraded on each run which could weaken the shortwaves over europe creating potential undercuts.

Big upgrade in short term hope the trend continues.

[Zenarcher]

The low in the Atlantic has moved very far West on this run and in the same spot as where the UKMO and ECM place it good to have agreement between them and things do look better now.

[Swave Snow]

It seems like the block is stronger on this run, i think this block towards russia is slowly being upgraded on each run which could weaken the shortwaves over europe creating potential undercuts.

Big upgrade in short term hope the trend continues.

I hope so, met office forecast as of 4am was similar but from Thurs suggests the Atlantic will roll in temporarily before becoming vague. Looks like Fi is still not far ahead in terms of hrs on the output but the thing I remember from years of model watching although being far from a professional is that high pressures are unpredictable and especially where our current big one is there is always a good chance when flips keep occurring in model output they are essentially going against their instinct or what they have been programmed to do. It is testament to the unusual synoptics that we could get an absolute pasting or flooding or just nondescript weather with prolonged exceptional potential

[Wilxy]

I think there is alot to be positive about next week, short term upgrades but either way next week is going to be intresting.

[Swave Snow]

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?09-05

HUM..... I got up early to have a sneak peak at the models -- best chart for around 2 days!!!

S

Yup the train is still running even though it sometimes looks like it could run out of steam. I want to keep believing it will eventually deliver just be delighted with potentially crazy snow conditions if things pay off. Here to believing it could happen

[BlueHedgehog074]

As longs as we continue to see upgrades with little in the way of downgrades, then it does seem possible the models took the incorrect route with their over-powering of the Atlantic Lows and the way they were handled. The warm-up should be less noticeable from today's GFS and UKMO models as a result with the cooler South-Easterly/Easterly winds later in the week, and better chance for wintry weather too. Wouldn't be entirely surprised if we end up seeing further U-turns...

Edited December 9, 2012 by DiagonalRedLine

[Weather-history]

It suppose to be the season of miracles, maybe we could pull off this next week. :o Sadly the quality is not brilliant.

Maybe someone is answering the call after the 0z runs

:o

Edited December 9, 2012 by Weather-history

[BlueHedgehog074]

Maybe someone is answering the call after the 0z runs

:o

Must admit, could quite easily be possible to see a setup like this next week, especially with the way some of the current models are positioning the Low(s) out to the West. But if those Lows do crash too far North East, I will get the Netweather Headquarters to send Steve Murrs out into the Atlantic where he'll fight the Low until it surrenders and decides to go to the South of the UK.

[tinybill]

cant people sleep over 500 people up at this UN godly hour on a Sunday mind you the models look better to-day , plus its looking good for Xmas at the moment mind you 2 weeks in the model world is a long time!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

what a backtrack on models, amazing all 3 now showing cold end to week, max of 0C on thurs and fri, still FI though and time for it to go back to ugly

ukmo best model for snow, GFS has atlantic breaking through on saturday but who knows could be snow

Meto still says rain preceded by snow for thurs but before 00z's, should see that change to cold and dry

Edited December 9, 2012 by Gimmesomesnow

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

So in the last few days we have seen the models predicting a show stopping easterly and a couple of days later the Atlantic smashing through a huge block. Both solutions are highly unlikely and anything after 96 hours.seems to be swinging wildly and why it makes snow chasing so exciting!

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather for the week ahead

Dry and cold

Widespread frosts

Snow showers along the east from Tuesday

Greater uncertainty from Thursday

Possibly milder and windy from Friday but very uncertain at this stage details will change as the week goes on

Edited December 9, 2012 by Gavin.

[Nights King]

Ian F -

Well, latest analysis just in from Exeter as we look into the next fortnight. They're not suggesting any return of blocked easterly or such-like: indeed quite the opposite:

Days 8-10, Sun-Tues: Unsettled and often windy with bands of rain crossing the UK, with clearer/showery interludes in between. Still a risk of some snow over high ground at times in the N, mainly Scottish mountains. Temperatures mainly close to average, occasionally mild in the S, but with still a risk of overnight frost in clearer, quieter interludes. EXTREMES COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY: Nil CONFIDENCE: High confidence for cyclonic SW’ly type. Low to medium confidence for the heaviest spells of rain to be across the S and W.

Days 10-15: broad continuation of conditions and synoptics described above with little change expected."

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

oh dear thats a pretty terrible update from exeter and added to the ecm and gefs06z i think the writing is on the wall.Its very frustrating,we appeared to come so close but experienced model watchers just know when that first horrid downgrade gets modelled the downgrade just gathers support and momentum until we are left with the crumbs of the table like this coming week.

The super annoying thing when exeter start being bullish about a long period of unsettled weather you just know they are going to be spot on.

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