Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[Bonjangle]

Looking forward to the 12z as much as we all get annoyed with the models removing the great charts, we all love model watching and the drama it brings on here.

On to the 12z's and here praying the shortwave magically disappears! Abrakadabra!

Surely pigs dont fly do they , like i said 2 days ago it all looks Pete Tong , and i had some slack of 2 serious forecaster's for this .

It's only the 2nd week of winter and i am sure there is more great time's ahead for us all in the UK .

[abovefreezing]

Just a few days ago I was imagining the breeze picking up from the East by Tuesday, some cold days by mid-week, snow showers piercing the night sky by Thursday. Blizzards with copious snow by this time next week; watching the light from the lamp posts smothered by the thick fall of white. Between the respite of the snow laden sky, trudging down the ice frozen snowy path, braced by an ever strengthening east wind, as the first week of non-stop snow ticked past with the newsreels warning of a Siberian snow front moving across the channel.

Now, wakening to the reality of British weather, with a snowless facade, a few frosty nights and the spectre of our old friend, the Westerly, I realise, sometimes good things don't come to those that wait.

If you can wait (live) long enough, I guarantee you will see it!

But the reality is that this (or anything close) is a once in a lifetime event, possibly rarer than that, and we had a wintry enough scenario in the last few years.

So it really might be a long wait. And the point is, when it comes, it may not even be modelled weeks in advance!

Edited December 8, 2012 by abovefreezing

[bradymk]

im not devestated at the vanishing act of this easterly,im more worried about a crappy mild mobile moist south westerly setting up shop in the run up to chrimbo,almost as bad as the constant rain in june july and august.

this country sucks .

Mild i dont think is one word that will describe the next few weeks. What is showing on the models is not mild but it is milder than what we are going to experience next few days but overall i think the period will be average to below average. Not cold, not mild, 5/6c mark. GFS ens show this well, they might nearly all show a breakdown but the mean is still at 4/5c throughout the whole run. For me, that isn't mild but we will see what the weather brings. The GFS 6z ensembles ended in some quite good charts towards the latter stages and GEM showed not a bad chart at +240 this morning. I know you will all say, its FI etc, but its better having potential with a chance than no potential and no chance what so ever.

[mcweather]

In the words of Jim Bowen.

Come and see what you could have won.

[Summer Sun]

Mild i dont think is one word that will describe the next few weeks. What is showing on the models is not mild but it is milder than what we are going to experience next few days but overall i think the period will be average to below average. Not cold, not mild, 5/6c mark. GFS ens show this well, they might nearly all show a breakdown but the mean is still at 4/5c throughout the whole run. For me, that isn't mild but we will see what the weather brings. The GFS 6z ensembles ended in some quite good charts towards the latter stages and GEM showed not a bad chart at +240 this morning. I know you will all say, its FI etc, but its better having potential with a chance than no potential and no chance what so ever.

Yes I agree even today's met office update says that temps are likely to be close to or just below average certainly not mild

UK Outlook for Thursday 13 Dec 2012 to Saturday 22 Dec 2012:

Southern, eastern and some central areas are likely to see a continuation of mostly sunny conditions through Thursday but staying cold with overnight frost and wintry showers in places. Elsewhere, the weather is expected to turn more unsettled but less cold, with these conditions edging north and east through Friday. This could give significant snowfall in places at first, particularly over hills. Winds will be initially light but it will turn windier from the southwest. Through the remainder of the period, it is likely to remain unsettled and windy in all areas with outbreaks of rain, heaviest in the south west. Temperatures are expected to be close to or just below the seasonal average with a continued risk of snow in places, mainly on higher ground from the midlands northwards.

[Lynxus]

Ah well, there's still the eyecandy of That ECM run.

Obviously too good to be true. I think the 12z runs may finish much hope left off.

Certainly nice eye candy.. While it may not come off.... Is it suggesting what others think? Re: the jet and the low flows at the moment? ( Ie: some models over rating the lows )

[Davey80]

Wouldn't be surprised to see a massive turnaround tbh.

[igloo]

the way this evenings 12z GFS run is going we will be lucky to get 1 cold day. with each run its advancing the mild atlantic by 12 hours what a complete disaster for all the coldies out there could well be more flooding on the way

[Jason M]

Oh dear, ugly run this.

Serious flooding problems in the SW if this verifies as there will be huge rainfall totals as the system just sits there.

Still lots of changes occurring but the same end result.

Jason

[Weather-history]

Question

Which is harder to achieve? A decent easterly or a decent Spanish plume?

[Bobby]

Expect the razor blades to come out tonight...

[Methuselah]

Aye...Net-Weather's version of the Night Of The Long Knives?

[Continental Climate]

pffft!! http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?08-17!! Not great people there is no getting away from it now I believe that we are staring down the barrel of a considerable zonal period, unfortunately teleconnections which on the face of it seem great cant overide pesky shortwaves and such!! Maybe as GP says something in january, who knows!! Very surprised if we see anything before xmas now

Edited December 8, 2012 by Continental Climate

[Weather-history]

Hmmmmmmm............<_<

Edited December 8, 2012 by Weather-history

[Jason M]

Oh dear, ugly run this.

Serious flooding problems in the SW if this verifies as there will be huge rainfall totals as the system just sits there.

Still lots of changes occurring but the same end result.

Jason

Guessing my post was moved as it referred to something other than snow. Some serious over moderating tonight

[Continental Climate]

I amazed how quickly things have fallen apart from a cold POV!! Im actually stunned a couple of days ago it was game on, now look at us!! The northern hemisphere charts look hideous http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?08-17!!! How zonal a pattern does that look? All that vortex energy near greenland spitting out low after low, lol quite hideous!! I think my initial CET guess was about 6.3 i think then changed it too 2.3 wish id stuck with former as this pattern looks entrenched!! All those CPC charts posted constantly showing northern blocking lol, bugger em!!

Dont worry Jason M mine was moved too and mine had charts attached, i dared to say the game was up and mentioned the "Z" word, haha

Edited December 8, 2012 by Continental Climate

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

We will prob see good cold charts for the week after next on sunday/monday we will get excited again then nearer the time they dissapear its been doing this for ages now bit of a stuck record

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

I amazed how quickly things have fallen apart from a cold POV!! Im actually stunned a couple of days ago it was game on, now look at us!! The northern hemisphere charts look hideous http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2012120812/UN144-21.GIF?08-17!!! How zonal a pattern does that look? All that vortex energy near greenland spitting out low after low, lol quite hideous!! I think my initial CET guess was about 6.3 i think then changed it too 2.3 wish id stuck with former as this pattern looks entrenched!! All those CPC charts posted constantly showing northern blocking lol, bugger em!!

I did think we would get downgrades from that ECM on wed but but to fall apart like they are never saw it coming

[Weather-history]

Hmmmmmmm............<_<

Double hmmmmm........ <_<

[Continental Climate]

maybe a few days away from the models is in order and come back with batteries refreshed!! Im on annual leave next week as well and i told my daughter that snow was deffo on the way, GRRRRR!!!

All the model and strat threads are now going to be filled with people looking at T384 and saying things look good for the end of december, or cold january deffo on the way lol heard it all before, id far rather them come out and say something like its going to be zonal for the next month folks, at least no false hope!!

[kumquat]

It's all on again in FI lol

Edited December 8, 2012 by kumquat

[UV-RAY]

Deary me, in the space of a few days we've gone from almighty blizzards to flooding of biblical proportions. I think I'll stick with my barometer and nowcasting from hereon, far more reliable than any model and teleconnections.

[karlos1983]

don't worry, its all in hand at +384

[be cause]

Farming forecast every Sunday in 60's and 70's for the week to Sat at least...

[Continental Climate]

don't worry, its all in hand at +384

Whoa!! look at that, cant wait for it to happen blizzards galore!!