Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[stainesbloke]

What still gets me every year is this: Why are these massive model flips always and I mean always, biased to Mild?

I still don't get how all of the models only saw something that was a fundamental huge change -at the last moment? It's like having a car go into reverse gear as it was approaching cruising speed-unbelievable.

Do these computers secretly talk to each other and try to deliberately wind us up and let us go banging blindly into the skirting boards of disappointment as opposed to through the architraving of desire

Because that's what this country usually experiences: mild, westerly dominated weather. NW Europe has a MILD, MARITIME climate all year round. Extremes of any sort are the exception. Plus weather from the East is particularly difficult to pinpoint to any degree of accuracy. That's why basing opinions on charts in FI is always a gamble. People should know better....but then they'd be earning a nice wage working at the MO!

[AGAL]

Because that's what this country usually experiences: mild, westerly dominated weather. NW Europe has a MILD, MARITIME climate all year round. Extremes of any sort are the exception. Plus weather from the East is particularly difficult to pinpoint to any degree of accuracy. That's why basing opinions on charts in FI is always a gamble. People should know better....but then they'd be earning a nice wage working at the MO!

Yes we all know that . But the super computers seemed to have forgotten for several days only to remember again some time yesterday.

[Thundery wintry showers]

What still gets me every year is this: Why are these massive model flips always and I mean always, biased to Mild?

It might seem that way, but it isn't true. I remember that around 22-24 December 2005, the model outputs were mostly showing a dry anticyclonic spell with slightly below-average temperatures and then a return of the Atlantic, but all of a sudden, some GFS runs started showing a cold east to north-easterly outbreak, and then the other models switched. The end result was this:

http://www.wetterzen...00120051228.gif

I also remember quite a few instances when the models switched abruptly towards a mild outcome only to switch abruptly back to a cold one.

Since it is difficult to get synoptics in the UK conducive to widespread snowfall, naturally the switches that result in something widely snowy will be outnumbered by those that don't, but I think abrupt switches from warm to cold outcomes are not unusual.

Edited December 8, 2012 by Thundery wintry showers

[stainesbloke]

Yes we all know that . But the super computers seemed to have forgotten for several days only to remember again some time yesterday.

Not helped by people massively over ramping about charts a week away.

[EML Network]

It's all a big pile of poo really...and now I see some of the GFS ensemble's are trying pull another Easterly out of the bag...well sorry GFS I don't believe you any more >>>

PROVE ME WRONG GFS ..GO ON I DARE YOU :-)

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Well I hope what's being shown in the GFS and ECM runs this morning doesn't happen because there is still surface water hanging about in farmers fields and blocking country lanes here in my area. Worrying times ahead after this ridiculous turn around if it verifies.

yes i totally agree those poor people in the flooded areas i bet they was a bit happier about a colder outlook now if the atlantic comes back in its just gna add to the flood problems esp now coming up to xmas

[AGAL]

Not helped by people massively over ramping about charts a week away.

Yes I agree. A severe cold spell is something that the majority on weather forums want to see and winter -especially a cold one which is the engine of the forums.

To be fair we've all been here before over the years now, and we all try and hold our fire or make comments like"yes I know it's in FI" and such but this one was exceptionall in that nearly everyone was taken in no matter how hard they tried to resist. Truth is model watching-and it's been said by others far wiser than me , is really pointless beyond five days, yet no doubt I will get suckered in again as many of us will; because we want to see a mantle of white and gritters scraping in the snow.

Can I just thank the mods for creating this thread as I'm usuallty deleted and barred by now.Great way to let of steam.

Edited December 8, 2012 by AGAL

[AGAL]

It's all a big pile of poo really...and now I see some of the GFS ensemble's are trying pull another Easterly out of the bag...well sorry GFS I don't believe you any more >>>

PROVE ME WRONG GFS ..GO ON I DARE YOU :-)

Absolutely right on the money, nope won't get fooled again...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

wouldn't happen to have any...erm...further links to that -would you

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

im not devestated at the vanishing act of this easterly,im more worried about a crappy mild mobile moist south westerly setting up shop in the run up to chrimbo,almost as bad as the constant rain in june july and august.

this country sucks .

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather for the week ahead

Colder

Sunny Spells

Widespread Frost

Wintry showers along the cost in Northern and Eastern Areas

Best of the sunshine in the west

[SnowRules]

How are the models looking today? Same as yesterday or any minor upgrades?

[Liam J]

Just when everything was falling into place and the excitement was rising, Mother Nature deals a nasty blow and delivers a rather typical outlook for the UK. Rain gales & flooding, but not before a few cold days & nights as we start next week with frost and wintry showers for some.

[Methuselah]

How are the models looking today? Same as yesterday or any minor upgrades?

Pretty tasty - if it's wind and rain you're after...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

BBC weather for the week ahead

Colder

Sunny Spells

Widespread Frost

Wintry showers along the cost in Northern and Eastern Areas

Best of the sunshine in the west

What about the horrendous rain due from thursday? or is that bbc NE forecast? then it seems accurate

[Liam J]

I'd love a prolonged cold & snowy period of weather but unfortunately this is looking quite unlikely atm, I'm pleased I didn't let myself get sucked into the charts on offer a few days ago! I like many types of weather so I'll take some Atlantic storms if they're on offer, not good news for the flood hit areas though.

Edited December 8, 2012 by Liam J

[Summer Sun]

What about the horrendous rain due from thursday? or is that bbc NE forecast? then it seems accurate

That was the national forecast from Nina Ridge on the news channel just before 14:00

[Hammer]

Is there anything in 96 hours that could alter in the modelling that could favour longer cold?

What do we need to see happen?

I mean of course what might the models be getting wrong in the 96 hours timeframe which if they have could mean long term colder spell.

Edited December 8, 2012 by Hammer

[shotski]

What about the horrendous rain due from thursday? or is that bbc NE forecast? then it seems accurate

Horrendous rain due for Thursday don't make me laugh.

This breakdown is not going to be as clear cut as the current output shows,

you only have to look at the latest fax charts to see things are not as they seem.

Edited December 8, 2012 by shotski

[Costa Del Fal]

Dont look at the CFS charts guys unless you like Bartlett's and Euro Highs. Charts make for grim viewing now.

Edited December 8, 2012 by Blizzards

[Chris K]

Ugh. Sorry but this is what the past couple of days has led me to do.

[ChartViewer]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/34056-january-1987/

Courtesy of NW Weather-History....oh for a Jan 2013 like that...you never know...just to cheer everyone up

Got to arrive one day

Fantastic post and story of the epic Jan 87 cold spell....the 80's better fashion, fax chart forecasts, ignorance of supercomputers, better football, better music..:-)

[Summer Sun]

The latest video from beeb on the European cold spell

Heavy snow has caused disruption to parts of France, Austria and Switzerland, with more snow in the forecast in the days to come.

BBC Weather's Nina Ridge takes a look at the freezing weather setting in across Europe.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/20652854

Edited December 8, 2012 by Gavin.

[Bobby]

Ah well, there's still the eyecandy of That ECM run.

Obviously too good to be true. I think the 12z runs may finish much hope left off.

[IDO]

Just a few days ago I was imagining the breeze picking up from the East by Tuesday, some cold days by mid-week, snow showers piercing the night sky by Thursday. Blizzards with copious snow by this time next week; watching the light from the lamp posts smothered by the thick fall of white. Between the respite of the snow laden sky, trudging down the ice frozen snowy path, braced by an ever strengthening east wind, as the first week of non-stop snow ticked past with the newsreels warning of a Siberian snow front moving across the channel.

Now, wakening to the reality of British weather, with a snowless facade, a few frosty nights and the spectre of our old friend, the Westerly, I realise, sometimes good things don't come to those that wait.

[Weather-history]

im not devestated at the vanishing act of this easterly,im more worried about a crappy mild mobile moist south westerly setting up shop in the run up to chrimbo,almost as bad as the constant rain in june july and august.

this country sucks .

Look at this in the run up to Christmas 1998