Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[snowmaddave]

someone posted in the model thread a few days back that the epic spell of snow we had two Winters back was not picked up until 3 days before it hit the uk. Could it be the same this time around , im not saying it will be as bad but still we can hope. The media seem to be hyping up next week as very wintry, well for the eastern side of the UK anyway, keep the faith guys, were there are downgrades there will be upgrades!!!

[Aaron]

This cold spell looks less and less likely as time goes by. We have seen continuous downgrades in all models/ensembles of late, particularly regarding the heights over scandi and the location of the Euro low. The bottom line is that the jet stream is too amplified rendering the blocking to take up a more eastern position. If you look at the trend so far this winter, the severe cold has always been a week away (sound familiar?) and this could be the story of our winter. Don't get me wrong, I take my hat off to GP et al as their winter forecast is panning out according to plan regarding the northern hemisphere analogues, however for our tiny islands, the smallest divergence is proving to have a dramatic effect. Therefore, I expect a brief cold/dry spell until Tue/Wed next week followed by a more traditional mild zonal pattern.

It is par the course for the UK, cold spells are unlikely to verify. What we can expect at some point is snowfall for most.

Some people definitely have egg on their faces though.

Edited December 7, 2012 by Aaron

[Weather-history]

It doesn't seem to be too different to this year in all honesty - a cold spell with snow in the east that looks to be wiped away by mild weather? The difference is that our cold spell - as it stands - is a lot chillier than then, and temperatures aren't quite set to reach 10c.

Atlantic more active back then, another difference. Any return of the Atlantic will be sluggish. You only have to look at that video to seethe strength of the Atlantic jet stream.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Over the last few years of model watching I've developed a really strong hatred of the Russian high. The damned thing always promises so much yet it so rarely manages to back far enough west or at a good enough angle to deliver, in spite of having so many opportunities and in spite of us having such intense cold spells in 2009/10 and November/December 2010. There's just too many things that can go wrong: poor data coverage of that area, shortwave spoilers cropping up at short range, not backing far enough west, sinking into the continent, it's just way too much hassle. Greenland highs, while not always completely straightforward, are usually a damn sight less stressful in its evolution, tends not to 'fail' so badly if it does fail to materialise and unarguably brings the most prolonged cold spells.

[Chris K]

Wonder how many have done this during todays model outputs.

Seriously though I know it doesn't look peachy but at least its only the start of winter.....*cough*

[mountain shadow]

So we hope that the models are wrong tomorrow and the anomaly Charts are right.

Will we learn our lessons this time that model watching is pointless past 72 hours/

[bryan629]

someone said earlier that NOAA think the gfs is not to be trusted or `busted` specially for east of usa, so whats not to say its busted allover. the way its handling things at the moment chopping and changing every run and in most cases quite wildly..... makes me want to not believe any thing from 0z to 2014 lol.

but what exactly is the knock on effect to the other models?? ecm has scatter all over the place too after tuesday... what on earth is going on , the pro`s seem pretty speechless at the mo too , it really must be difficult for them , i know.

all we know is its going to get cold for a few days , after that ...welll hope the wheels are well oiled on this rollecoaster.

im pretty sure the gfs is making it all up as it goes along , i just cant prove it . a bit like trying to pick out the winner at the grand national at the mo is the best i can describe it, only the thing is gfs is making the hurdles.

[mountain shadow]

The Pro,s are speechless because they forecast the longwave pattern. They have no way of forecasting the shortwaves so have to sit dumbfounded like the rest of us.

The Pro,s are speechless because they forecast the longwave pattern. They have no way of forecasting the shortwaves so have to sit dumbfounded like the rest of us.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Ok so we have a downgrade with 4 days to go but these things balance themselves out and we will suddenly get a massive upgrade out of nowhere. The cold is firmly established across Europe. It only takes a nudge and it will come flooding back across us!

[Barry12]

The fact that the meto are still going for an easterly bringing snow suggests to me that today may just be a wobble. I'd suggest big upgrades tomorrow, from both the GFS and ECM.

[Aaron]

we have a downgrade

massive upgrade out of nowhere.

Do you see a pattern developing?

[bryan629]

not to take an incy bitof confidence from the gfs blue skies, im sure the ecm will upgrade to the stella run of the other night, met office seem to be following this `trend` its the scatter afterwards that bothers me so far..... however looking at trends its definately not going to get warm as in a tropical plume from africa.

so what are we left with... slightly milder conditions from the west ie never above 5 to 10 celcius... so cold like it is now. potential for snow as it arrives and temporary if it happens, .

im curoious about the strat too , the moving vortex, and the russian high... these are quite clearly key players in the modelling of our weather , perhaps its these that produce the nudge we all want to see us in the deep freeze for a while... but im not an expert by any strech of the imagination .... just a gut feeling , if the atlantic does make in roads , im pretty sure a relaod will happen , fingers crossed it will happen around christmas

[SnowObsessor90]

Even though I was provided with pretty much everything I could ask for during the 09/10 and 10/11 winters I still feel like I missed out somewhat as I was never on here to experience the exciting build up towards a cold spell which actually came fruition and sadly as of now this is still the case , I'm sure I will one day though.

Edited December 8, 2012 by Anonymous21

[kumquat]

It's quite funny how we get suckered in and then battered out again. But I do love the end November through to end February just exactly for these kinds of highs and lows. Honestly, model watching is a sport for OCD types. If we look deep into ourselves it's a kind of compulsive disorder. Even if we want snow or not - the whole game of watching the outputs of numerical data number crunching CFD style computers becomes something that we crave. I'm in for the long haul. It's quite worrying to see the stats of my other businesses going down throughout the winter months, but golly I need this

I think that Nick Sussex who holds the key to the Prozac cabinet should start up a self-help group. It could be pretty lucrative.

[Bishop Brennan]

A fairly neat summation of how it felt reading the model outputs throughout Friday:

Bish

[Weather-history]

It could be worse, it could be like this!

[stainesbloke]

Could be a lot worse, less of the doom and gloom! Freezing, snowy Decembers are quite rare, plus we are only in week 2 of winter, hardly a 'write-off'. Think the mild possibility has been overplayed but its a case of wait and see.

[Frosty.]

Unfortunately just 9/51 ECM EPS keep the cold to 144hrs

Rest = raging southwesterlies.

That says it all matty, brief cold snap followed by a strong zonal pattern is what most of the models are showing this morning, until yesterday I thought we were heading for a dec 2010 esque pattern but now it looks more like dec 2011, all the potential, foundations and building blocks to a prolonged cold outlook lie in ruins this morning.

Edited December 8, 2012 by Frosty039

[Snowman.]

just a crumb of comfort- 3 days ago, the models showed us 'winter wonderland'. now they show 'a bit nippy'. the GFS goes out to 16 days showing atlantic domination. what will they show in another 3 days? or 3 days after that? what we seem to have learned is that 16 days is way too long to even look for trends! in just 3 days time we could be waxing sledges again. or not.... who knows really? its still only the start of winter

ikr What is the point of the models when all it needs to forecast is shortwaves to ruin everything and delay us even more for a successful cold spell!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Ian FERGIE hinted at the concern ahead could be the rainfall and flooding, so it looks like LOOK WEST.

BFTP

Edited December 8, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[weatherguy]

Ah well, we still have 10 weeks of winter to look forward to, with promising teleconnective signals...

Edited December 8, 2012 by weatherguy

[Lampostwatcher]

Fi is always t12

[Methuselah]

They think it's all over...

[chiffer]

Not even a third of the way through December yet!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

what an incredible turnaround from Thursday teatime!!!A few years ago this would have had me screaming but ive seen it so many times now i just simply refuse to get reeled in by charts showing bitter est winds at 144h and more.

What galls me more than anything is not so much the 'flip',its the atlantic onslaught coming in the run up to christmas.

personally i would not be suprised to see another protracted spell of atalntic weather,despite what the background signals might suggest!