Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[khodds]

Well, I've said it before, but I'm staying positive, I don't think we've had the last of the upgrades yet. I'm no expert, I'm a coldie at heart, and it might be me just grabbing hold of any straws I can but I'm optimistic. The background signals for the last month have been completely different to what we normally have, the models seem to be really struggling and I'm not surprised, this year has been awful, weather wise and they just want to bring back the Atlantic at the slightest given opportunity.

I'm probably talking complete and utter rubbish but I refuse to be negative until its T00 and back to zonality.

[MR EXTREMES]

Just goes to show even the big gun posters can't be 100% looks like the early thoughts winter post may need reposting.

So close but who could foresee the vortex even I started to ramp and I was adamant that real wintry stuff would come second week of Jan to first week of Feb.

A lot of this I based on the lack of strat warming and a fairly frantic Atlantic due to a cooling of the vortex in November.

But over all its game over for us coldies for December.

Of coarse this week might have a few suprises for some but cold soggy sums up most.

[nick sussex]

This whole easterly saga has been exhausting!

And just goes to show take nothing for granted when thats forecast. Then today we had those better operationals followed by a GFS 06hrs tease and then the UKMO update which went down like a lead balloon in these threads.

Just how much drama can people take!

Personally I find the clear cut nature of the UKMO forecast a bit premature, I would have expected to see a little more uncertainty for the weekend.

But as we saw clear cut forecasts can still implode, one only has to go back to a few days to see how festive the UKMO one sounded!

Generally of course its an easier task for the models when you have a more typical pattern evolving however the PV on the move to Siberia, the block still shown to the east and a more southerly tracking jet are hardly bog standard zonal set ups for the UK.

Anyway we await the evening model runs.

[The Melting Snowman in Guernsey]

I love it. It's only the 9th of Dec, we've had one snow event go poop up after being stupidly overhyped by the so called 'big hitters' on here, who incidentally seem to have crawled back into their shells having made themselves look daft, and its the end of the world for some. Winter hasn't really started in my eyes. As far as I'm concerned anything that happens before Xmas is just a bonus. Just because we had a good dollop 2 years ago in December means nothing !

This week is going to be bland for me at least, with rain and wind likely at the end of the week, BUT its just a forecast which can easily change even in a 5 day timeframe let alone 10 days+. Some people need to remember this.

[Gavin Hannah]

I know Big Joe B is a bit controversial but another tweet from him.

Joe laminate floori â€@BigJoelaminate floori

@Barrowice Euro Winter will be colder than last 3, perhaps coldest since 62-63. Posting on http://Weatherbell.com premium within hour

[yorkieblade]

I know Big Joe B is a bit controversial but another tweet from him.

I would suggest that this average dos'nt include the UK , our westerly incursions (as we will see by the end of this week) keep us historically warmer than Central and Eastern Europe during Winter - and the trend over the last 30 years is we ARE getting warmer ...the stats show that !

[yorkieblade]

The winds will feel raw from tonight onwards they are penetrating on a Nthly /N Eastly direction , that cold Central European air will be felt for at least 4 days looking at the Countryfile forecast , then we have the big hammer of the Atlantic trying to smash the cold air back , could be a battleground set up over the UK and historically these have sometimes left us with a dumping , I remember back in the late 70's and early 1980's these set ups often brought a swift dumping, but generally the warmer ,wetter fronts genrally win out and they soon thaw.

[Buriedundersnow]

could someone -plz tell me last winter when the block finally affected our weather in some way in february was it in early feb or later i cant remember the right time period.

[Panayiotis]

could someone -plz tell me last winter when the block finally affected our weather in some way in february was it in early feb or later i cant remember the right time period.

It was in early Feb, it started around the 4th. Edited December 9, 2012 by shuggee

[Buriedundersnow]

would the mods mind if i was to put a post in here it is a bit off topic but i have been looking through things and it might be something that will give people hope of a cold spell coming soon

[Snowman.]

could someone -plz tell me last winter when the block finally affected our weather in some way in february was it in early feb or later i cant remember the right time period.

Around the 1st 3rd was when had snow I think?

[Polar Maritime]

would the mods mind if i was to put a post in here it is a bit off topic but i have been looking through things and it might be something that will give people hope of a cold spell coming soon

Just throw it in, your last post was prop more off topic

[Buriedundersnow]

what is the point in this place being a forum when clearly it is only for the few people that think they know the lot and dont want to hear anything else if they want it like that they should keep it to thereselves and not allow people to sign up to here as i have posted questions on here some off topic fair enough but some have been on topic and still u dont get an answer back then they wonder why people moan and that when they dont help people out and let them understand or put there point across now i think itf someone takes time out of there busy life to look through sites and look for things they should be allowed to have there say as much as the people in here that think they know the lot cos lately has just proved really they dont know it all just seems like the site for the few to give thereselves big heads

[Polar Maritime]

what is the point in this place being a forum when clearly it is only for the few people that think they know the lot and dont want to hear anything else if they want it like that they should keep it to thereselves and not allow people to sign up to here as i have posted questions on here some off topic fair enough but some have been on topic and still u dont get an answer back then they wonder why people moan and that when they dont help people out and let them understand or put there point across now i think itf someone takes time out of there busy life to look through sites and look for things they should be allowed to have there say as much as the people in here that think they know the lot cos lately has just proved really they dont know it all just seems like the site for the few to give thereselves big heads

why have you come back with this ?.... im wiling to help if you post your info that you have looked up.

[PeteB]

One thing which may have scuppered people's predictions was the increase in Solar output during November.

This is actually quite interesting. Having read about Maunder and Dalton minimums I decided to do a little research into sunspot activity in previous recent winters. I was quite shocked to see that 1946/7 was actually a solar maximum with a sunspot count of over 130, also 1978/79 had a very high sunspot count around 110. BTW, just to confuse things 1962/3 had a count in the 20's. While its true that there has been an increase in solar activity and we are very close to a solar maximum the sunspot count is only in the mid 60's. There is almost certainly a link between what's going on on the sun and our weather but it may be that there's a delayed reaction of several years before it filters down to what we see on the ground. However I believe that even in the middle of both Maunder and Dalton minimums that there were quite a number of mild winters.

Pete

[Buriedundersnow]

i

why have you come back with this ?.... im wiling to help if you post your info that you have looked up.

sorry but was just getting hacked off a little i've posted things in the past and never got a reply even if it was in the right thread and i've seen it happen with other people not getting answers when they post then they wonder why people never learn or that and why people show there frustrations like what was happening the other night

[Polar Maritime]

i

sorry but was just getting hacked off a little i've posted things in the past and never got a reply even if it was in the right thread and i've seen it happen with other people not getting answers when they post then they wonder why people never learn or that and why people show there frustrations like what was happening the other night

So post the info you have looked up... and dont take things to heart, Lot's of members on here will think they are right, we all want to be. And most will only listen if you post what they want to hear during winter, so take that on board. The weather makes a fool out of everyone..

[Buriedundersnow]

i looked through different sites last night and i have picked up on in the winters of 09/10 and 10/11 we didnt see much solar activity and we were affected by blocked winters.

now i have read lots of things and watch presentationas from scientist on the link with solar activcity and european blocking during winter.

last winter we had solar activity go up and we saw the block held at bay by the atlantic now the rise in solar activity ended and the sun went quiet at the end of january and the block was allowed to progress west in february all though we didnt get much cold it did make progress toward us and i feel if it happened in january we would have had a greater chance of a longer cold spell

now look at this winter we have had a recent rise in solar activity and the atlantic is holding the block back again now the solar activity has gone back down lately and the sun has gone quiet again so i feel that if we get a cold spell in the next couple of weeks then there might be something in this.

now it cant be a coinsidence that 09/10 and 10/11 low solar activity and we get blocking and last winter and the latest period solar activity goes up and the atlantic holds back the block.

could it be the rise in solar activity can energise the atlantic and even when we get signals for blocking we should be looking at the sun to see if we will get the block or not or if it stays further east.

i used spaceweather.com to look back at solar activity as they have an archive section an the right of there page and it is easy to use.

if we get a cold spell in the next few weeks this is really something i feel we need to look at aswell.

would like to hear peoples thoughts on this.

we have to remember the sun does affect weather and without a sun we wouldnt have any weather.

Edited December 9, 2012 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

So post the info you have looked up... and dont take things to heart, Lot's of members on here will think they are right, we all want to be. And most will only listen if you post what they want to hear during winter, so take that on board. The weather makes a fool out of everyone..

will take that on board just hard when your trying to learn and even if someone was to say dont be a pratt that cant happen or something like that its better than being ignored and would then let people know there thought are right or wrong instead of being in a constant state of not knowing anything

[Polar Maritime]

i looked through different sites last night and i have picked up on in the winters of 09/10 and 10/11 we didnt see much solar activity and we were affected by blocked winters.

now i have read lots of things and watch presentationas from scientist on the link with solar activcity and european blocking during winter.

last winter we had solar activity go up and we saw the block held at bay by the atlantic now the rise in solar activity ended and the sun went quiet at the end of january and the block was allowed to progress west in february all though we didnt get much cold it did make progress toward us and i feel if it happened in january we would have had a greater chance of a longer cold spell

now look at this winter we have had a recent rise in solar activity and the atlantic is holding the block back again now the solar activity has gone back down lately and the sun has gone quiet again so i feel that if we get a cold spell in the next couple of weeks then there might be something in this.

now it cant be a coinsidence that 09/10 and 10/11 low solar activity and we get blocking and last winter and the latest period solar activity goes up and the atlantic holds back the block.

could it be the rise in solar activity can energise the atlantic and even when we get signals for blocking we should be looking at the sun to see if we will get the block or not or if it stays further east.

i used spaceweather.com to look back at solar activity as they have an archive section an the right of there page and it is easy to use.

if we get a cold spell in the next few weeks this is really something i feel we need to look at aswell.

would like to hear peoples thoughts on this.

we have to remember the sun does affect weather and without a sun we wouldnt have any weather.

Solar activity is only one, of the many other anomalies to take into consideration. There are lagging effect's with the sun's activity which have to be taken into consideration, along with hundreds of other butterfly effects, which are so complicated that even top scientists are struggling to come to any solid conclusion, that said.. low solar activity has proven in the past, to exert cold winters.

Solar activity is very low, taking on board that we should be entering solar max during Feb, this is looking highly unlikely (according to NASA), So we shall see...

I and others will agree, that the sun's CME's effect our weather, but we are far from any idea as to how much, when other factors are taken into consideration.

Take a look here http://forum.netweat...r/#entry2358837

Edited December 9, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Buriedundersnow]

Solar activity is only one, of the many other anomalies to take into consideration. There are lagging effect's with the sun's activity which have to be taken into consideration, along with hundreds of other butterfly effects, which are so complicated that even top scientists are struggling to come to any solid conclusion, that said.. low solar activity has proven in the past, to exert cold winters.

i know the sun is only one factor but i really do think if we get a cold spell soon and solar activity remains low then there could be something in it and the spikes in solar activity might be the real key for our little part of the world even if the overiding signs r pointing to a cold and blocked winter this might be one thing that can hold it back from affecting us.

[Snowman.]

Solar activity has a lag effect of about 9 months usually when we see it low through out the year you can make a sort of prediction of how the winter will pan out.but not to the month as it just gives us the building blocks to get all the other ones in the right spot.

We're meant to be in Solar maxima but it doesn't look the case.

Expect winters around the 2020 period to be on the chilly side and compare this solar maxima to last.

EDIT: Sunspot number sits at around 35 Which awfully low at the moment.

Edited December 9, 2012 by SN0WM4N

[Polar Maritime]

i know the sun is only one factor but i really do think if we get a cold spell soon and solar activity remains low then there could be something in it and the spikes in solar activity might be the real key for our little part of the world even if the overiding signs r pointing to a cold and blocked winter this might be one thing that can hold it back from affecting us.

Take a look at this thread.. http://forum.netweat...r/#entry2358837

Solar activity has a lag effect of about 9 months usually when we see it low through out the year you can make a sort of prediction of how the winter will pan out.but not to the month as it just gives us the building blocks to get all the other ones in the right spot.

We're meant to be in Solar maxima but it doesn't look the case.

Expect winters around the 2020 period to be on the chilly side and compare this solar maxima to last.

EDIT: Sunspot number sits at around 35 Which awfully low at the moment.

Something similar to the last 3,,,

[Buriedundersnow]

Solar activity has a lag effect of about 9 months usually when we see it low through out the year you can make a sort of prediction of how the winter will pan out.but not to the month as it just gives us the building blocks to get all the other ones in the right spot.

We're meant to be in Solar maxima but it doesn't look the case.

Expect winters around the 2020 period to be on the chilly side and compare this solar maxima to last.

EDIT: Sunspot number sits at around 35 Which awfully low at the moment.

how can it take 9 months for the sun to affect the weather

[Polar Maritime]

how can it take 9 months for the sun to affect the weather

Have a read on this thread.. http://forum.netweat...r/#entry2358837

Or directly here http://arxiv.org/pdf/1202.1954v1.pdf

Edited December 9, 2012 by Polar Maritime