Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[Peejayem]

frosty ground....great post, my view entirely. However, its fairly clear that on the mod thread there are so called weather fans who are only interested in one extreme type of weather and they are becoming rather repetitive and tedious. Personally, im not as enthused about this cold spell as i would normally be....reasons for which i wont bore any one with!

[mushymanrob]

Divide and conquer. ... why do people feel the need to say cold side mild side. .... are we not fans of weather In general.

bib... no... definately not. just watch the md thread empty when the cold has finally gone. i agree wholeheartedly that the md thread should be about weather lovers/enthusiasts, but in reality it isnt. october-march its a cold spotting forum, with unbiased and objective posts becoming rare.

No I would expect them to be doing everything they could in defending their property........

I also wouldn’t expect people on this or any other forum to be whinging at other people commenting on extremes...... By being on such forums you would expect the poster to know and understand that wanting something will not make it happen. And for some watching extreme weather events unfold is of great personal and scientific interest.

Again I also wouldn’t expect people whose homes are in danger of flooding to caravan on these forums about it,,,,, This false outrage at people expressing their enjoyment of cold weather is nothing short of trolling!

bib... why shouldnt they? im sure there are many members and guests who read the threads for information, many like me have a vested interest in knowing whats likely to happen. so im sure that there are plenty of farmers, growers, gardeners, viewing these threads for the information they need, why should anyone ignore these forums because of enthusiasts of inclemant weather have the right to wish it on us? and most of the pro-cold posts add nothing to the discussion but are meaningless one liners.

justify it however you wish, but endless posts hoping for weather that is causing some, actually just about everybody in the long run, distress, hardship, death to livestock (shed roofs collapsing, sheep burried, etc), and is dealing a severe blow to native wildlife is rubbing salt in the wounds. no doubt some tiny minded person will read this and go and make such a post. <_<

[frosty ground]

bib... no... definately not. just watch the md thread empty when the cold has finally gone. i agree wholeheartedly that the md thread should be about weather lovers/enthusiasts, but in reality it isnt. october-march its a cold spotting forum, with unbiased and objective posts becoming rare.

bib... why shouldnt they? im sure there are many members and guests who read the threads for information, many like me have a vested interest in knowing whats likely to happen. so im sure that there are plenty of farmers, growers, gardeners, viewing these threads for the information they need, why should anyone ignore these forums because of enthusiasts of inclemant weather have the right to wish it on us? and most of the pro-cold posts add nothing to the discussion but are meaningless one liners.

justify it however you wish, but endless posts hoping for weather that is causing some, actually just about everybody in the long run, distress, hardship, death to livestock (shed roofs collapsing, sheep burried, etc), and is dealing a severe blow to native wildlife is rubbing salt in the wounds. no doubt some tiny minded person will read this and go and make such a post.

I strongly agree with your comments regarding the MO thread..... But that’s for the Site Admin and mods to sort out the best way they can. (Thankless task).

Your very much mistaken if you think people in danger of severe weather will look at these forums for any information...... They will go directly to the source and the will be Environment agency (floods) and the Met for other severe weather events.

Your also very much mistaken on why people wish to see severe weather be it cold or hot..... Regardless of what the wish to see it will have NO bearing on what actually happens. This time last year we were looking at drought conditions for large areas of the country, people still wished to see hot sunny weather thou, regardless of the consequences for certain people.

Pretty sure people have sympathy for those affected by the current weather, but considering they didn’t cause it or wish it into existence I see no harm in enjoying watching it unfold! Stuff happens sometimes bad stuff I should know but I don't begrudge other people enjoying their hobby or their interests. If your personally offended by people enjoying weather that leaves you out of pocket I suggest you don’t read these forums and get yourself upset by it. After all the world does not revolve around you, and while people sympathise it’s beyond their control.

My brother lost weeks of work during December 2010, he doesn’t dislike people that enjoyed the snow and cold! Then again he’s not trolling an internet forum.

Edited March 26, 2013 by frosty ground

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't think I ever find myself completely on one "side" or the other. I can generalise about how I prefer cold winters and warm summers, but for example I enjoyed the spell of warm westerlies at the end of January and recently mentioned the northerly incursion on the 27th August 1995. Incidentally, the BBC forecast that Kevin posted only mentioned thunderstorms in the Scottish Highlands, but I recall that the storms took off down the eastern side of England a couple of hours after the Countryfile forecast was issued.

To be honest, I get a similar problem with the model thread in summer- it often resembles a high pressure/settled watch thread in which fans of convective setups (of whom there are many on this forum, quite possibly the majority) are made to feel out of place. Thundery setups tend not to be particularly settled and are often dismissed in there as "unsettled dross", just as they often are on TV forecasts- and I find that pretty difficult to deal with at times.

As for Summer 1995, I remember a lot of stories on the news about the problems that it was causing- I may have mis-remembered the bit about crops and wildlife, but there would have been the usual problems with elderly people having heatstroke and commuters sweltering on the London Underground for instance. There were also serious problems with water shortages, especially in Yorkshire, although much of this was down to mis-management by the water companies (considering that most reservoirs had more stock than usual during March, the loss of water supplies between then and August was staggering).

Re. hot weather in summer, I've been on both sides of the fence there- in my childhood I was afraid of heat and sometimes got criticised for wishing away lovely summer weather, but these days I'm more likely to be one of the ones enjoying the heat and, on occasion, being criticised for wishing it upon others- so again the problem works both ways.

Edited March 26, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[mushymanrob]

Your very much mistaken if you think people in danger of severe weather will look at these forums for any information...... They will go directly to the source and the will be Environment agency (floods) and the Met for other severe weather events.

not all... i know people who read internet forums and forecasts, true for floods but this is cold and farmers/growers etc alike do look at these sites and this is one of the largest.

Your also very much mistaken on why people wish to see severe weather be it cold or hot..... Regardless of what the wish to see it will have NO bearing on what actually happens. This time last year we were looking at drought conditions for large areas of the country, people still wished to see hot sunny weather thou, regardless of the consequences for certain people.

Pretty sure people have sympathy for those affected by the current weather, but considering they didn’t cause it or wish it into existence I see no harm in enjoying watching it unfold! Stuff happens sometimes bad stuff I should know but I don't begrudge other people enjoying their hobby or their interests. If your personally offended by people enjoying weather that leaves you out of pocket I suggest you don’t read these forums and get yourself upset by it. After all the world does not revolve around you, and while people sympathise it’s beyond their control.

My brother lost weeks of work during December 2010, he doesn’t dislike people that enjoyed the snow and cold! Then again he’s not trolling an internet forum.

eh? i thought people just liked seeing extreme weather...is that a wrong perception?

ive tried to steer it away from my personally, hence mentioning farmers, growers, wildlife etc all of which are feeling the consequences of this cold.

big report on lunchtime bbc, calling this weather 'catastrophic' for livestock farmers... yeah great that justwhat they want to see when reading these forums are people championing the cold...

well we will just have to agree to disagree on this mate... i do have the greatest of respect for you and your weather knowlege and almost always aree with your posts.

[Aaron]

Rob- I will continue hoping for a continuation of cold, snowy weather for as long as it is realistically possible (mid April or so), and there is absolutely nothing that you can say or do that can change my way of thinking. You are fighting a losing battle by repeating yourself on a daily basis. If that makes me, god forbid, a sadistic sociopath, heartless, ignorant or whatever else, then you are perfectly entitled to that opinion, and I am, of course, perfectly entitled to ignore you. I will continue 'championing' the cold, as you put it, and I am not bothered if I offend anyone, they can ignore my posts if I am that much of a bother. I am not cheering gleefully at the suffering of others, but I am not going to play down my enthusiasm for a certain type of weather because it is affecting other people. Sorry, but that's the truth. No two ways around it.

As for bias in the MOD thread - I'll agree to that. The MOD should be about unbiased and objectionable posts that summarise what the models are showing, rather than putting their own spin on things by declaring that certain charts are great, or that the projected outlook is good for everyone, when we all know that is not the case. Everyone, of course, has a weather preference, and I only desire cold, snowy weather in winter, but I do not object to windstorms or record-breaking warmth, purely from an interest perspective, and I do genuinely love windstorms. During the rest of the year, I desire mild weather, thunderstorms, hail, gales, or anything record breaking, essentially anything that mother nature can throw at us. However, one cannot help but notice that these debates only arise when the proclaimed 'mildies' return, many of whom unnecessarily attack cold lovers simply for desiring weather that they do not like, and start going in guilt trips by mentioning their own problems - perfectly valid of course, but using it as a personal tool to get people to start disdaining a type of weather is pretty pointless. Not needed at all IMO.

Edited March 26, 2013 by Aaron

[andybk]

of course you wont be softening the blow for those suffering, but at least you wont be reveling in the weather that does! if your house was in iminant danger of getting flooded by unseasonal rain, would you like to read pages of people hoping that it will rain? its ok wanting to experience extremes as long as it doesnt adversely affect you... personally i dont need extremes, theres plenty of pleasure to be got from 'ordinary' seasonal weather.

i cant remember anybody hoping for a record breaking hot spell, just some nice warm sunshine! a drought would be as damaging to me as this cold is, so im not one for a 76 drought. 1995 though wasnt a disaster for agriculture or wildlife, in fact the august hot spell was perfect harvesting weather, perfect butterfly/insect weather, didnt kill off birds, mamals, etc, summer 1995 was nothing compared to what this spell is because it is breeding season, its the end of winter when everything hibernating is at its lowest, most vunerable, period.

i wouldnt write off cloud yet, with c10 days of an easterly we will be prone to miserable grey dull cloud, ok its not here yet, but id be surprised if we dont get some days like that especially when the wind turns south of east. funny, march 96 was clear, sunny, days and sharp frosts by night, a diurnal range of 14c! i didnt get all that cloud over that period.

couldn't agree more , as someone who spends all day outside , I have stopped reading the spring discussion mod threads simply because , many that seem to be posting on there only tend to be looking at , is b+++y snow , days and days away on whatever model floats their boat (boring ) , the weather is interesting and enjoy informed discussion on all aspects of it, whether hot or cold it doesn't have to be a record to be of interest , Edited March 26, 2013 by andybk

[Candice]

One man's/woman's mild is another man's cold! If, as I think will happen, the cold will start to "relax" in the coming week it certainly won't be mild but 1c with the windchill making it -7c yesterday and 7c with no windchill next Tuesday - that's a 14c perceived difference - it's going to feel pretty mild! I have to say I get really fed up looking at the MO thread only to see the usual gang in there going on about snowmageddon. If anyone "dares" to post a slightly less cold chart then they get jumped on by people who seem to want to be buried up to their necks in snow 365 days of the year.

I spend quite a lot of my time studying charts, weather patterns etc and am totally fascinated by the synoptics that have made the last 6 weeks almost totally easterly-dominated but I daren't post anything in the MO thread which doesn't pay homage to the gods of snow because I know it'll just get derided.

My own preference is for hot, sultry summer days, with convective evenings but I don't look for that type of weather in every chart all year round.

Oh, and another thing ............................................................

Why oh why don't some of these people realise, the models don't actually MAKE the weather!

Phew! Rant over, quite enjoyed that.

[Bumpkin]

Some very good points made about the mod thread. I read this board all year round and have done for a couple of years. I read the model discussion because I like to get others thoughts on what may lay ahead because although I can read the charts, I'm no expert. We run a farm and my interests lay outdoors and so I like to be able to plan ahead when possible.

Now I gave up reading the mod thread daily a couple of months ago because it became full of snow hunters and the opinions and comments were completely unobjectionable and biased. The rest of the year that doesn't happen and I get to read about what the models are showing and not what people want them to show.

[itsnowjoke]

I would like some precip mixed with the harsh frosts.

Maybe if i got too much snow i would be sick of the sight of it and wouldnt crave it anymore.

[Jax]

Quite agree with many of the comments in here. The MOD thead should be about just that, the data "quality", is "that" good or bad? is it overplaying this, underplaying that? kind of thing, not "Oh it's a *BAD* run" just because it does not show a persons preference in weather.

The other threads (such as this one) are where you can bang on about it.

I read the MOD thread to get a feel of how the data being given is accurate, and from that the confidence that it is right, but as others have already said, what you want and what the weather *does* are two different things, and I can pretty much state that the latter of the two will win out each time.

For many of us, knowing how valid and correct said MOD output is, is needed to try and make plans for the future, now *that* is important.

[Radiating Dendrite]

To be fair this problem is always going to exist.

It is a discussion forum and everyone has an opinion and it is impossible to completely control that.

The technical thread is very good, it is just a shame that it is not really used.

I think the problems you describe are simply human nature - the majority on here want cold and are always going to hold those who forecast it in high regard.

[Tamara]

With regards to objectivity, it doesn't help when the forum team decides to add 'Hunt for Cold' into the MOD thread's heading. I mean, that's the 'green light' right there.

I don't see the difference between having the "Hunt for Cold* in the winter and (just f.e) "Hot and thundery?" in the summer if such a weather type was occuring and interest was growing on the MOD. Speaking purely in terms of most sought after weather by the majority of members, this is surely the summer equivalent of snow hunting in winter ? as I know you would certainly want to agree.

Weather enthusiasts seek out the MOD to see if their favourite weather is coming or not. It might not be the most objective way to view model output, which, obviously reflects whatever pattern is most likely in accordance with the background factors - but reality suggests that this will always be the case whether one likes it not. And it is impossible to prevent people being excited by such a dynamic phenomenon as the weather and one can easily argue that without such enthusiasm as a driving motivation for analysis - then the MOD would be a dull place for sure. It is each persons responsibility to balance their preferences with objectivity, and reflect such balance in their posts, and the best moderation is never going to achieve that. Its down to trust basically

Edited March 26, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Radiating Dendrite]

I don't see the difference between having the "Hunt for Cold* in the winter and (just f.e) "Hot and thundery?" in the summer if such a weather type was occuring and interest was growing on the MOD. Speaking purely in terms of most sought after weather by the majority of members, this is surely the summer equivalent of snow hunting in winter ? as I know you would certainly want to agree

It does tend to swing the thread automatically towards cold etc.

I understand your point, but like Weather09 I do agree that the title "Model Discussion Thread" is perfect in any season.

[Tamara]

It does tend to swing the thread automatically towards cold etc.

I understand your point, but like Weather09 I do agree that the title "Model Discussion Thread" is perfect in any season.

Yes it is a difficult balance Trying to embrace enthusiasm and excitement but keep rational objective analysis is not an easy task

Edited March 26, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Peejayem]

Agree with the comment about the "like" feature....bin it for goodness sake. Do posters really need their egos massaging that much? Leave the "like" nonsense for facebook

Edited March 26, 2013 by Peejayem

[Tamara]

Er...yes. But I don't really see where you're going with this.

I added further to my post - I think that clarfies it hopefully

[Tamara]

Agree with the comment about the "like" feature....bin it for goodness sake. Do posters really need their egos massaging that much? Like the "like" nonsense for facebook

I think that it is good to be able express agreement or appreciation for a post that someone makes. I am not a fan of Facebook and don't use it other than for playing "Treasure Hunt" but I think wrt the 'like' facility used in this context, then most people can read between the lines between what is a post of quality and one that isn't. Also, used properly, it encourages a friendly atmosphere - once again it is down to personal responsibility to use it in this way

[snowice]

The ukmo is like the day after tommorow!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I have doubts about negative reputation points, which we've had a few experiments with, but to be honest, I feel that the positive use of the "like" feature has significantly outweighed the negative use of it. For instance, while we do get cliques awarding each other "likes" in the model output thread, as a general rule the posts with the most "likes" tend to be the ones with well-reasoned and balanced viewpoints, particularly when they have insights from qualified forecasters (e.g. Ian Ferguson must have a pretty impressive ratio of likes to posts made). Thus I am against scrapping the likes system.

The "the hunt for cold" was a well-intentioned but failed experiment IMHO, which was aimed to give a more realistic picture of what the model output thread was like, but ended up accentuating the amount of cold/snow bias in there.

[mushymanrob]

With regards to objectivity, it doesn't help when the forum team decides to add 'Hunt for Cold' into the MOD thread's heading. I mean, that's the 'green light' right there.

Another problem is that select members have been put on pedestals by other members and are immune from the content in their posts being subject to constructive criticism. If someone is brave enough to disagree with said members, my god, are they ready to meet a backlash.

Oh, and get rid of the 'like' feature- it only serves to reinforce the clique culture on the forum.

ironically i 'liked' your post! :lol:

thats because i agree with it, indeed some are held up as weather gods whos opinion you cannot question <_<, it wouldnt be so bad if these people were right half the time! :lol: just look though at who likes what, the same old names 'liking' the coldest posts no matter how realistic they are. some really decent, unbiased, informative posts get hardly 1 like, but some drongo who posts 'there gonna be loads of snow' will get the star of popularity. (and no, i was not refering to any one person).

To be fair this problem is always going to exist.

It is a discussion forum and everyone has an opinion and it is impossible to completely control that.

The technical thread is very good, it is just a shame that it is not really used.

I think the problems you describe are simply human nature - the majority on here want cold and are always going to hold those who forecast it in high regard.

well i mention on this thread that imho there ought to be the technical thread, the model thread for unbiased, and the snow spotting thread where the seasonal snowies can ramp, predict, spot, guess, indulge all they want without obscuring the sober posts that are more accurate. it would also address my recent complaint regarding the offence to those suffering as 'we' would be in the unbiased thread.

I don't see the difference between having the "Hunt for Cold* in the winter and (just f.e) "Hot and thundery?" in the summer if such a weather type was occuring and interest was growing on the MOD. Speaking purely in terms of most sought after weather by the majority of members, this is surely the summer equivalent of snow hunting in winter ? as I know you would certainly want to agree.

but heat/storm hunters in summer are nowhere near as numerous nor as unobjective as the hundereds of snowfans in winter.

just like to say thanks for those who have supported my posts here, it proves that i have a point!

[Tamara]

ironically i 'liked' your post!

thats because i agree with it, indeed some are held up as weather gods whos opinion you cannot question , it wouldnt be so bad if these people were right half the time! just look though at who likes what, the same old names 'liking' the coldest posts no matter how realistic they are. some really decent, unbiased, informative posts get hardly 1 like, but some drongo who posts 'there gonna be loads of snow' will get the star of popularity. (and no, i was not refering to any one person).

well i mention on this thread that imho there ought to be the technical thread, the model thread for unbiased, and the snow spotting thread where the seasonal snowies can ramp, predict, spot, guess, indulge all they want without obscuring the sober posts that are more accurate. it would also address my recent complaint regarding the offence to those suffering as 'we' would be in the unbiased thread.

but heat/storm hunters in summer are nowhere near as numerous nor as unobjective as the hundereds of snowfans in winter.

just like to say thanks for those who have supported my posts here, it proves that i have a point!

As i said just now, I think most people can read between the lines in terms of who is being objective and who isn't, so on that basis the 'like' facility shouldn't be irksome imo. People naturally gravitate towards certain people (their posting styles, preferences, philosophy etc etc) - it is a fact of life and nothing is going to change that. So, by dint of that it just happens that a lot of people are entranced by the fairy tale of qualities of snow in winter and the MOD is a long way from the reality of non virtual real life.

Storms and heat are for sure certainly not my favourite weather type in summer... but I realise they are for the majority, so I am not going to complain about such excitement and bias in the summer and how that finds its way into forum discussion as a dominant topic. Good luck and enjoy it I say Besides in summer with the long days and evenings, there are better things to do in spare time than sit in front of a computer. I understand your point that numbers do accentuate the theme, but nonetheless the principle is exactly the same imo- and hence tolerance applies each way from one opposite season to the next (or *should* apply anyway even though it doesn't)

Edited March 26, 2013 by Tamara Road

[The Weather Yoda]

So after all these years and constant waiting this is the fabled BEAST FROM THE EAST...

I don't like it.

[pinball wizard]

With the lack of snow and visible frost these cold conditions are pretty dull to be honest. Where's our first Spanish plume going to emerge from.

My bet would be Spain.

[DAVID SNOW]

With the lack of snow and visible frost these cold conditions are pretty dull to be honest. Where's our first Spanish plume going to emerge from.

Greenland?