Model Output Discussion - 8th December Onwards

[Backtrack]

...And then the 00z comes out and removes the Easterly in 12 days time and we all cry about it!

Don't go down the FI op path, worthless.

[Weather Boy]

That's whats driving the LP south and elongating it I believe. Without it, we could end up with a Jet ploughing straight into us.

A Beasterly in time for XMAS!!!!!

Without wishing to send us prematurely on another FI wild goose chase, has anyone else noticed that this is the third GFS run in a row to give us a stiff uncompromising easterly at 19-21 December timescale?

What's the betting it will stick resolutely to it for a week or more, persuade the other models to join in the hype and then drop it like a stone as soon as it's convinced everyone with about 4 days to go?

[peterf]

That's because there are no windows in the central forecast room!...I have worked there..... it could be a blizzard outside and they wouldn't know...they also have no more regional forecasters who were vital in bringing real weather observations and comment. My opinion is that forecasting still depends on experience + computers+ common sense. Sorry off topic well kind of off topic.

if true it seems like a big step backwards regards accurate forecasting,.financial constraints and the ever increasing use of computers no doubt.

[TEITS]

Just highlighted the +120 GFS chart to keep your eyes out for the next runs.

This is the system that develops underneath the main low that begins the whole undercutting process that allows the block to our E to move W and bring the E,ly.

[igloo]

Although this is my 4th post (Horray) I have been watching models for 35 years. I have to say that this is the most confused I have seen them in years. I am now not even convinced that the timing of the breakdown from the Atlantic can be believed at only at T+90.

well they must be the 2 legit type of models like the rest of us you have been admiring theres so much confusing for the end of the week i would not be to surprised if the russian HP is slap bang on top of us by then its moving 200 miles west with GFS each run i wonder if this mornings ECM run will start following suit

Edited December 9, 2012 by igloo

[JCP]

Just highlighted the +120 GFS chart to keep your eyes out for the next runs.

This is the system that develops underneath the main low that begins the whole undercutting process that allows the block to our E to move W and bring the E,ly.

Spot on, that is precisely what is needed in order to back the winds and let the high gets it's foot back in the door!

[SP1986]

I haven't been on here for a while, but I haven't missed the fact the GFS has been very poor recently, changing every run (literally)

I wouldn't take any notice of anything past 120 hours at the moment..

[Polar Maritime]

I haven't been on here for a while, but I haven't missed the fact the GFS has been very poor recently, changing every run (literally)

I wouldn't take any notice of anything past 120 hours at the moment..

Are the models not always poor in these battleground set up's..?

[Mark Neal.]

Normal Service resumes. Chasing Easterlies in FI again

It was never in doubt. Haven't viewed the models since Friday Night and look what occurs. A more westward shift and teasing Synoptics in FI. Another interesting week of model watching likely to ensue now, never boring recently

[TEITS]

Are the models not always poor in these battleground set up's..?

Yep and clearly illustrated in the GEFS ensembles that I have seen so far.

What I have noticed is the GEFS ensembles are far more bullish in blasting the block to our E away compared to the GFS Op runs. Now is it the lower resolution of these ensembles that is making all the difference. If so then it clearly illustrates how this battle between the Atantic and the HP is finely poised.

[Weathizard]

Not really any support for the GFS at 168, with regards to the westward shift and the Russian high is WAY further east on most members looking through the ENS. (Not that I really think 168hrs in setups like these is any use!

[TEITS]

So at +228 we could have this.

or this.

I would expect this difference at +384 but not +228.

Ensemble means are a waste of time at the moment.

[Timmytour]

GFS has pressure greater than 1040mb over the Siberia all the way through the run until +276....but 100 hours later is down below 1000mb

[bradymk]

Yep and clearly illustrated in the GEFS ensembles that I have seen so far.

What I have noticed is the GEFS ensembles are far more bullish in blasting the block to our E away compared to the GFS Op runs. Now is it the lower resolution of these ensembles that is making all the difference. If so then it clearly illustrates how this battle between the Atantic and the HP is finely poised.

Yes TEITS, i think the resolution may be an issue here initially. The next week or so could be follow your op runs rather than your ensemble means if the ensembles are blasting away the block to the east. From a cold point of view, hopefully we can now delay the atlantic attack as an atlantic attack does look likely now but details still very uncertain. After this, well i think we are seeing our next potential cold spell already with the high ridging further and further west with a GH possible. A northerly looking christmas imo looks plausible at the moment and hinted by a few others. But obviously too far out to say with any confidence at the moment. Shorter term, friday looks a concern for the SW, some heavy rain falling on saturated ground is the last thing people there want. Hopefully this will be downgraded but the potential is there atm for a very wet/windy friday Edited December 9, 2012 by bradythemole

[chris55]

Very little support in the ensembles for anything like the Op at 180, only two runs bring the beast anywhere near us. the rest pretty much blow it away.

[Panayiotis]

GFS has pressure greater than 1040mb over the Siberia all the way through the run until +276....but 100 hours later is down below 1000mb

Well it could happen thats FI for you!

[Timmytour]

GFS has pressure greater than 1040mb over the Siberia all the way through the run until +276....but 100 hours later is down below 1000mb

Well it could happen thats FI for you!

I was wondering.......has it been showing such a change in pressure for that areas even in FI over the past few weeks?

[Panayiotis]

I was wondering.......has it been showing such a change in pressure for that areas even in FI over the past few weeks?

I dont really know tbh as its FI and i dont look at the millibars as these change drastically over runs.. Edited December 10, 2012 by panayiotis

[Weathizard]

I think the ensembles on a whole, long term are better this evening, more cold options than mild but still, I've learned the hard way recently that the ensembles can be fickle beasts when it comes to setups like this. I look forward to the battle about to ensue, aside from this its feeling positively chilly outside

Evening guys.

[weather_it_will]

I think the ensembles on a whole, long term are better this evening, more cold options than mild but still,

I don't see any agreement in the ensembles beyond 5-days, but I don't see anything very cold either.

[ITSY]

Very little support in the ensembles for anything like the Op at 180, only two runs bring the beast anywhere near us. the rest pretty much blow it away.

Only a few days ago these ENS were being mentioned by forecasters like Hugo and Fergie as representing a possible Beasterly with 48 of 51 members being Very cold. They mean as little as the individual runs themselves, prepare for them to change.

[Nick L]

Another shift south so far for that huge low on the 00z, retaining the cold uppers for longer too.

Big snow totals for the pennines and Highlands on this. Wish it would budge another couple of hundred miles south.

Edited December 10, 2012 by Nick L

[Mucka]

UKMO looks very Atlantic dominated at first glance but a little more scrutiny shows the high still has some fight in it and there are possible developments out West that would aid future blocking. It would need to be repeated for a at least a couple of runs or be supported by another model before I got too interested though and GFS is very flat just where UKMO begins to amplify the pattern.

[snow drift]

Morning all. Not the best looking charts, if a sustained period of cold is what you are wishing for. I can not see a big turn around at this time which is hard to take considering we had what looked like a period of sustained cold. Then the output gave us hope of the East fighting back, only for this to retreat back East too.

So we are where we are with output that could be worse but not what most would want to see. Notice on a few posts that the METO are getting a bit of stick for taking their time to update their forecasts but who could blame them really. To my mind, in this period of uncertantiy and the output fliping all over the place, they have waited for more detail and then changed it. How many people said 24/48 hours ago, that they would not want to make a forecast given the output at that time?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Hum! Pretty awful gfs0z with the Atlantic really taking over,when we eventually see the deep low disipate we then see another strong jet streak hurtling across the Atlantic which squashes any hope of a mid atlantic ridge ,something that bih high to the NE needs to ridge westwards.

ukmo 0z also looks fires up the Atlantic.

Better make the most of the next 3 or 4 days of seasonal weather,im not expecting much in the way of snow when the breakdown arrives and youd be hard pressed to see any prospect of snow this side of christmas for the majority now.

potential for Dec is rapidly disappearing thanks to that god damn atalntic.