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Model Output Discussion - 8th December Onwards

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Just when you think you've seen it all, the model thread turns into a snooker thread - the most boring sport known to mankind - noooooooooooooo!!!

As it stands though, we're in for a serious weather period with a heck of a lot happening, and a lot of changes possible in the output - time to knuckle down and watch this all step by step...

I use snooker on TV to help me sleep.

Another westwards step by the 18Z and the angle of the LP is better.

gfs-0-102.png?18

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Slinky Apprentice

Slinky

Posted
  • Location: The Fens. 25 asl
  • Location: The Fens. 25 asl
Posted

Just when you think you've seen it all, the model thread turns into a snooker thread - the most boring sport known to mankind - noooooooooooooo!!!

As it stands though, we're in for a serious weather period with a heck of a lot happening, and a lot of changes possible in the output - time to knuckle down and watch this all step by step...

Agree with you there, was getting a little surreal!!

Quite apt as my 1000th post, an off topic one :)

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Matty M Community Regular

Matty M

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted

With a chart like this, you think it would be mild in Britain!

But just look at 2m temps!

Rtavn1021.png

Rtavn10217.png

Anyway, lots of change going on and the 18z isn't going to sort things out.

At least we are entering a very interesting period of weather.

The morning runs will be crucial as ever in seeing if we can get a slider.

I wouldnt bear too much weight to the 18z as usual.

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Gavin Hannah Community Regular

Gavin Hannah

Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe
Posted (edited)

no sign of "hurricane" higgins yet.....

You do realise if it does crop up, it will have to be named that now lol.

Let me see that LP squeeze baby squeeze. How low can it go?

Edited by IBringTheHammer
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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Just want to clarify something with the members so they don't think im misleading them.

gfs-0-114.png?18

My gripe with the ECM output and the Met O forecasts isn't whether it will turn milder but the period into the following week. Im just not convinced yet that we will see a period of mild SW,lys next week and feel E,lys are just as likely as the models back the pattern further W during this week.

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OldMetMan Rising Star

OldMetMan

Posted
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire
Posted

I've been studying latest model output quite closely and, although there is now a stronger consensus between them with Atlantic systems taking over, something still doesn't quite add up as far as Thursday and beyond are concerned.

The latest 500mb hemispheric chart has some noteworthy features which make me still doubt the models:

post-13989-0-87443700-1355089159_thumb.p

In particular, the amplifying trough over the W US, as I mentioned yesterday, does not seem to be given realistic development consequences by the models for further downstream. There needs to be more significant ridging ahead of it I think which of course would have an effect on jet direction.

Also, the amplitude of that US trough would be such as to affect downstream feature amplitudes. In other words, the net effect would be to build a more significant Rex block with the upper high developing over the Norwegian Sea, the European trough retrogressing somewhat, perhaps absorbing the upper low off Newfoundland and, this would force the US southern jet even further S than the models predict.

So, instead of the developing HP to our NW merely sinking S and decaying, we would see as a consequence stronger westward pressure rises out of Europe into the N Atlantic. With this configuration, we would have a weakish polar front with, as I also mentioned yesterday, stronger cyclonic activity well S of the UK.

Yes I know, a lot of "ifs" and "maybes". Clearly, the models themselves are grappling with these issues, hence the dithering in today's output. We are a mere 3-4 days away from this predicted change in flow so one would hope that by Monday, it should be nailed down.

Tomorrow's output should be most interesting!

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

Again the high has upgraded over Greenland....

post-17320-0-74046700-1355091093_thumb.j

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted

Fantastic post as always OMM smile.png

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Buriedundersnow Experienced

Buriedundersnow

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted

that low has the look of something with nowhere to go but southeast

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

no sign of "hurricane" higgins yet.....

It's all Peter Ebdon, I'm afraid...

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted (edited)

I think the light is beginning to flicker out on the chances of anything substantial from the shortwave developments, its not the one that slides south but the one thats modelled to go through Northern britain that does the damage-

Anyway hot on its heels is the next evolution & if i was presented with an archive chart like this

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-126.png?18

I would say Easterly +48 -72 hours-

Its infact the 18 z so we can await to find out!

S

Edited by Steve Murr
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Jason T Seasoned

Jason T

Posted
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Storms and epic cold snowy winters
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
Posted

Crikey how many people will be on here at 5 am tomorrow.

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

Further upgrades like the ones we are seeing could make this week,IMO probably the best model viewing ever!

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

If some members want to see this trend of moving W then you only need look at Germany. The 12Z had a SW,ly flow whereas the 18Z has a SE,ly flow.

gfs-0-138.png?18

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bryan629 Aficionado

bryan629

Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
Posted

t120...heights getting stronger and moving south east .... any chance it will ?

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Matty M Community Regular

Matty M

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted

I think the light is beginning to flicker out on the chances of anything substantial from the shortwave developments, its not the one that slides south but the one thats modelled to go through Northern britain that does the damage-

Anyway hot on its heels is the next evolution & if i was presented with an archive chart like this

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-126.png?18

I would say Easterly +48 -72 hours-

Its infact the 18 z so we can await to find out!

S

It's all going to come together Steve. A slider and an advancement of that hugh Siberian Block westward.

The shifts westward through the last 36hrs have been significant. Just the tip of the Iceberg IMO.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)

18z -sat lunchtime all of germany in the freezer

12z - only eastern germany below zero

Changes in the jet and shortwave pattern off the eastern seaboard T156

Edited by bluearmy
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-uksnow- Explorer

-uksnow-

Posted
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
Posted

Not a bad 18z GFS imo, the beast is fighting back well at T144

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=1

And the run up to now, depression far further west. Can't see it being pushed back to the point where it doesnt make inroads at all, but its moving north by 144 with a low developing over france and moving east... hmm

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