Model Output Discussion - 8th December Onwards

[Gavin Hannah]

Second shortwave about to follow the first into the Med. Actually, more like across france/germany.

Edited December 9, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[Tom Quintavalle]

18z -sat lunchtime all of germany in the freezer

12z - only eastern germany below zero

Yes ba, titanic struggle ensuing on this run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.png

Regards,

Tom.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

-5 uppers moving West across the North Sea at 153...

[karyo]

The Russian high is extending westwards. Cold air re-claims Shetland by 144hours!

Karyo

[BARRY]

that little low thats developing in the channel looks really intresting could bring the winds back east.

[Weathizard]

If the westward trend continues we could really be onto something here, I said a yesterday I think, that this isn't over just yet, much better signs within a relatively reliable timeframe, if you look since yesterday the westward shift is large. (Cant post charts as am on mobile)

Watching that beast Atlantic low and the massive high fight to the death is really quite entertaining.

Edited December 9, 2012 by Weathizard

[LomondSnowstorm]

Cold air heading back into eastern Scotland at +168:

[Zenarcher]

Interesting to see the heights over Scandinavia have been upgraded on the 18z and it seems to stay stronger through out the whole run so far. The heights also appear much stronger than what the ECM and UKMO show, like some have said and we have seen them today some small upgrades each run. I don't think that Russian high will be going anywhere too fast.

Edited December 9, 2012 by weathermaster

[bluearmy]

We may lose the battle but the war is still waging!!

[Gavin Hannah]

Ok, at around 168. My assessment is that the Low retrogresses back west alot quicker and the HP to the east advances further west. It's another upgrade and another step in the right direction. Still no sign of a slider operational.

The air over the UK only briefly comes out of the 0 line. It's by no means going to be hugely mild.

God this is exciting!

Edited December 9, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[Buriedundersnow]

could we have the overall pattern sorted now the models are getting to grips with the pv shift and this could keep upgrading thru the next few days maybe

[karyo]

Cold upper air licking the east coast by 171 hours!

Karyo

[SMU]

-15c dewpoint air

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1718.gif

Any track with instability over +12c SST's would be EPIC.

S

[Jayces]

Really?

We gotta go through this all again for next weekend?

Man it's going to be a loooong winter.

Clearly that cold air is stronger then the models have anticipated.

[Matty M]

Well the pub run has certainly had a few Sherrys.

[chris55]

The beast lurks..........

[Weathizard]

18z

12z

Look how much further west the Scandi/Russian high is and the low has no choice to retreat as the high absorbs all its strongest blows

Edited December 9, 2012 by Weathizard

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Cold air in to North East England by 180 with the Atlantic nowhere to go but SE.

[-uksnow-]

-15c dewpoint air

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rmgfs1718.gif

Any track with instability over +12c SST's would be EPIC.

S

Normally i understand, but could you say this a little clearer please?

[nick sussex]

Another easterly chase likely to ensue!

Oh dear we're back to this again. Earlier I think we can move on from the possible snow apart from Scotland, the shortwave just refuses to get lost!

No major turnaround on that front, so its look east again, prozac at the ready!

You know I used to love easterlies now they're starting to get on my wick, can we just move onto a Greenland high!!!

[Gavin Hannah]

It's going to be a drawn out affair. Those little shortwaves ejected over the continent are dragging some of the LP energy out with them. It's only a short step away from becoming a full blown slider.

[Isolated Frost]

And it looks like a retrogressive block takes the 18z- fights very well into the atlantic low belts.

The note with 'cyclonic' SW'lies over 'anticyclonic' SW'lies are that cyclonic ones are dictated by the cooler, wetter air around it. We would most likely receive a rPm airstream, instead of a Tm airstream- noting the lack of heights over central and southern europe and a notable jet tint-

D5 on the ECM ENS shows the atlantic is by no means 'in'- the block will dictate matters and as such only the far south and west are likely to envisage any 'milder' conditions-

The transfer of energy across the arctic will catch the nwp out and solutions will be many- the overall pattern is for a mean south to south-east flow, with temperatures cooler and precipitation lower in the east.

[karyo]

Snow event for Scotland and northern England at 180 hours! The Atlantic low losing energy and fragmenting!

Karyo

[Nick L]

Normally i understand, but could you say this a little clearer please?

If we get an unstable and cold easterly flow, combined with the warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) then there could be some pretty tasty convection.

After the farce of the last week I can't believe we're getting drawn into this again.

[chris55]

Normally i understand, but could you say this a little clearer please?

Cold dry air moving in an unstable flow over a relatively warm sea mean lots of convective snow.