Model Output Discussion - 8th December Onwards

[Robbie Garrett]

Out of interest, are there any members on the GFS run that go for that eagerly awaited slider low??

[SMU]

Yes, but what was particularly significant in 1978 was the intensity of cold over Europe. I wish I still had the thickness charts for back then, I seem to remember the values being well below 510dm over the S of England, which is extraordinary .

Best regards

Steve

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archives-1978-12-31-0-2.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1979/archives-1979-1-1-0-2.png

[Gavin Hannah]

Best regards

Steve

http://modeles.meteo...8-12-31-0-2.png

http://modeles.meteo...979-1-1-0-2.png

Lets have some of this!

[OldMetMan]

Best regards

Steve

http://modeles.meteo...8-12-31-0-2.png

http://modeles.meteo...979-1-1-0-2.png

Thanks Steve, what incredible temps! I also recall surface temps over the Low Countries, Denmark and Germany being somewhere between -10 and -20 on 31st/1st!

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Best regards

Steve

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archives-1978-12-31-0-2.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1979/archives-1979-1-1-0-2.png

wouldnt mind some of this thats some cold

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensembles have updated

[Jason T]

Best regards

Steve

http://modeles.meteo...8-12-31-0-2.png

http://modeles.meteo...979-1-1-0-2.png

Cor can you imagine if the 18z,Showed that. Here's your Biblical proportion Nick. Mind blowing charts. I remember that year well, Boy did it snow.

[Snowmad79]

Is it any wonder the models struggle when you see how much air data is rejected and the areas where data is taken and the big holes in coverage. Here are some of the most recent NOAA global Aircraft data plots showing where they obtain data from aircraft and what they reject. (This data is used for the operational of the GFS and would have thought the UKMO and ECMWF also use this data in there's)

I just find it interesting at there choice of rejecting a lot of data in important areas and the total lack of aircraft data in other areas such as the pole and over Europe in general:

6z

12z 8th dec

Wonder what other juicy charts I can find on there server

[Ian Brown]

Will the 18z see a gargantuan shift. Make that block to our north stronger against the initial push from the west near 72hrs and then slide the lows into France?

I think the trend is our friend but unsure whether the 18z GFS will be onto this yet.

Get your seatbelt fastened because i feel the next 24hrs will be huge.

There is potential for a serious snow-event to hit some location in UK mid-week.

We should know by tomorrow evening whether the slider is possible. I think it is not only possible but, likely.

I think we need snookers to pull something out of the fire for later this week, I'm looking to the future possibilities.

[sundog]

wouldnt mind some of this thats some cold

During that spell the coldest irish temp of the 20th centuary was recorded -18.8c

[Bristawl Si]

An epic blizzard down here - for me winter 78/79 was, and remains, the most memorable!

Thanks Steve for posting those charts.

Edited December 9, 2012 by Bristle boy

[Gavin Hannah]

Ok, at t.51, the bottom edge of the LP is sitting a wee bit further south... Looking good so far.

[Iceni]

if you ever decide to become prime minister, you would get my vote.

Got some kind of death wish or something? We can sneer at sensationalist press, but they get their copy from the MetO and sites like this one. You don't think reporters actually know a thing about NH blocking or care if people are flooded out of their homes?

[Gavin Hannah]

No no no... do not throw off a shotwave...

[chionomaniac]

The first snooker is the jet stream profile is far more favourable in the Atlantic at T+66. That just about a dozen more to go then!

[chionomaniac]

No no no... do not throw off a shotwave...

....but the whites gone in off.......

[Matty M]

Baby steps westward on the 18z. Trend continues though.

That frontal incursion near T72hrs that phases out the cold uppers could do with disappearing

[Gavin Hannah]

....but the whites gone in off.......

... it's popped back out.... ahhhh! unbelievable match play....

Edited December 9, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[Cloud 10]

No mention of the JMA tonight?.

[Snowman.]

I'm guessing by the silence of the forum were just one shortwave away from a heart attack...

[Paul]

Just when you think you've seen it all, the model thread turns into a snooker thread - the most boring sport known to mankind - noooooooooooooo!!!

As it stands though, we're in for a serious weather period with a heck of a lot happening, and a lot of changes possible in the output - time to knuckle down and watch this all step by step...

[karyo]

^{Watching that shortwave ruin our chances is painful!}

[abruzzi spur]

I'm guessing by the silence of the forum were just one shortwave away from a heart attack...

Melodrama alert!

Could be people are looking, reading and considering before posting?

[bluearmy]

No mention of the JMA tonight?.

I note you didnt attach the following frame!

[Wayneywoo]

Come on Jimmy! :-)

Sorry mods, couldn't resist