South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ December 12th 2012>

[Katiewombat]

Yes, I wouldn't mind a decent answer to this as it's just un-believable at the moment that we will be getting this milder weather.

Just doesn't add up.

[Candice]

I am in East Grinstead today and there is still a full frost even on the trees. No sunshine due to cloudy conditions. Something is falling out of the sky but I am darned if I can tell what it is. Could be a fine type of graupel.

Could it be anthrogenic (sp?) snow, had some here in Norfolk earlier

Yes, I wouldn't mind a decent answer to this as it's just un-believable at the moment that we will be getting this milder weather.

Sadly, for those wishing for extreme cold and snow the charts are less likely to flip in this type of situation than when they were showing the easterly.

[Supercell 89]

Still -3c in Reading but looks like a winter wonderland outside everything is covered in Rime Frost never seen it this widespread before, if we can't have snow for xmas can we please have this!

[BennyL]

I would say that looking at this ensemble run for where I live (simplistic minimum temperature at ground level) there is nothing showing cold here in the shortish term (after the next day and for a few days) So a very high chance of mildish weather ahead.

The ensemble runs for last week always had one or two runs which didn't suggest anything really cold and after about 13th or 14th December, the ensembles scattered, so the confidence in a long lasting cold spell was never that high.

Where can I find this chart? as I have been observing pressure charts at the moment and I made the mistake thinking the colours were temperatures .. Doh! :-D

[Paul Sherman]

Yes, I wouldn't mind a decent answer to this as it's just un-believable at the moment that we will be getting this milder weather.

Most of it is to do with the Models performance in Default Modes of weather.

Eg : The Models will always struggle with an Easterly Set-Up as this is not very common for us, there has only really been 1 or 2 true Easterly Outbreaks since the early 1980's. Whereas with our predominate weather coming from the South West (Mild and Crap) the Models have a much better handle on seeing signs of weather to come in the 5-7 days range.

We also have problems with Weather coming from the North of us as gathering data from Sparesly inhabited areas (Eg Svalbard and regions near the Eastern Side of Greenland) can create a knock on effect if data is iffy or out about a week down the line so to speak.

Think I am right in saying the bouy data and data from boats out west of us is very good and covered considerably

Regards

Paul S

[Kentspur]

I am in East Grinstead today and there is still a full frost even on the trees. No sunshine due to cloudy conditions. Something is falling out of the sky but I am darned if I can tell what it is. Could be a fine type of graupel.

Blime we are scraping the barrel lol!

[Paul Sherman]

Temperatures in the last hour have jumped here in Leigh On Sea

Now at 1c and 0c for the Dewpoint which has jumped a full 3c in the last hour!

[kate1]

I am in East Grinstead today and there is still a full frost even on the trees. No sunshine due to cloudy conditions. Something is falling out of the sky but I am darned if I can tell what it is. Could be a fine type of graupel.

I had this here earlier and got quite excited... Sadly I then worked out that it was little frost particles dislodging themselves from tree branches and telephone wires...

[Coast]

Where can I find this chart? as I have been observing pressure charts at the moment and I made the mistake thinking the colours were temperatures .. Doh! :-D

You might want to run the max and min temps along the slder for GFS here, they will give you a far idea of how things are currently thought to develop:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

[Guest archiesmummy]

Can I ask a silly question? Dont feel confident to ask on the model threads. How do we know what the models are showing is any more correct or incorrect then what they showede a week ago. Couldn't they do anouther complete u turn on the next run and cold no go anywhere.

Sorry if it is stupid question. But my gut feeling just can't buy into this mild mushy stuff forecast.

Thanks in advance

Katie

I don't think is silly, is similar to the question I asked earlier, there always seems to be certainties with mild weather but cold weather seems harder to pin down, unless of course your John Pike, he said mid Dec wld get milder after a cold spell, just think Xmas will be green mild and boring!

Will just have to get drunk! Lol

[Marie]

Well today is a lot milder than yesterday 5.5 cloudy and boring ,frost has all gone .

[Mark Neal.]

Fog beginning to lift and glimpses of blue sky. It's currently -2.7c. Overnight low of -5.7c.. The Rime/Hoar Frost has made it look wintery out there this morning, lovely!

Edited December 12, 2012 by Mark Neal.

[Steve C]

Temperature has just nudged above freezing here. The trees are losing their icy cloaks now.

[BennyL]

You might want to run the max and min temps along the slder for GFS here, they will give you a far idea of how things are currently thought to develop:

http://www.netweathe...tion=nwdc;sess=

Thanks Coast.... Just looking at the latest charts now and the chart goes crazy after the 18th... so I would assume that means we are non the wiser of what will happen next? i.e milder or potential colder shot?

[gottolovethisweather]

Can I ask a silly question? Dont feel confident to ask on the model threads. How do we know what the models are showing is any more correct or incorrect then what they showed a week ago. Couldn't they do anouther complete u turn on the next run and cold no go anywhere.

Sorry if it is stupid question. But my gut feeling just can't buy into this mild mushy stuff forecast.

Thanks in advance

Katie

Its not a silly question and can really only be determined by what the subsequent ensembles show. The further all members diverge from the mean (red line on GEFS), the less likely the outcome is going to be nearer to actual conditions, come the time. When a control run (blue line on the GEFS) starts too drift way away from the mean to above average conditions, chances are its a warm outlier, when consistently below the mean, chances are it was a cold outlier.

Sorry if I have confused you further but I am knackered and my tired brain feels like its ceasing up.

I have attached some historic charts where you can see divergence over time, based on only the GFS 12z runs, so its shows like for like data.

Note from the above that the mean (red line) and control (blue line), i.e. unadjusted data head in off in completely different directions at around the 8th December in the first chart and the 10th December on the second chart. You can safely assume, at least according to the GFS modelling, on which these ensembles were based, that FI starts on the aforementioned dates. Incidentally on both historic charts, FI would have begun at the very latest during <t+144 (6 days) in each scenario. It is because of such model suite variance, that any chart posted after such a timescale should be regarded as highly unlikely in reality.

Edited December 12, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[claret047]

Snow near my girlfriend apparently on the heavy side... (Staines)

Thats no way to talk about your girlfriend!

Weather in NW1 is cold and grey.

[Coast]

Just looking at the latest charts now and the chart goes crazy after the 18th... so I would assume that means we are non the wiser of what will happen next? i.e milder or potential colder shot?

It's just a bit too far away (at a weeks time) to be of much use other than to see a trend or pattern developing. My hunch is milder, but that's not based on anything much more than looking at a whole load of stuff and taking a general overview.

Edited December 12, 2012 by Coast

[Soaring Hawk]

After an overnight low of -5 we have warmed up to the current -1.1 C

Dewpoint -1 C

Visibility 1.7 km

Pressure 1021 hPa

UV: 1

Mostly still frozen with heavy rime. Where the earlier sun reached, the grass has changed to green but car windows etc. still frozen. We may achieve our first ice day,,,

[Snowangel-MK]

For those of you stuck in the office today I would like to share my magical morning walk with you.....

...I went to an enchanted land not so far far away where the trees were covered in ice crystals.....

...water was frozen and in the stillness this place felt as if it had been cast under a spell of one hundred winters....

...I followed small animals deeper into the woods.....

....until finally in a clearing I came upon the most beautiful creature of them all....

(sorry no unicorn this time) Thank you for sharing, hope you enjoy it as much as I did - Ali x

[dallas]

Great pics MKsnow

[Coast]

The sun is just about creeping over the top of some of the offices and factories here. In the quiet moments between traffic you can hear the drip, drip, drip of the ice melting off the branches of the trees and providing you're quick enough, you can just miss their icy descent to the pavement.

[Guest archiesmummy]

Ali.....simply stunning x

[Suburban Streamer]

-0.4 here. gonna be touch and go to hold onto an ice day.

here's a few pics from this morning....

EDIT: wow some awesome pics MK

Edited December 12, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[BennyL]

It's just a bit too far away (at a weeks time) to be of much use other than to see a trend or pattern developing. My hunch is milder, but that's not based on anything much more than looking at a whole load of stuff and taking a general overview.

On the chart.. am I following the GEFS Control and GFS Operational lines to establish some kind of a trend? ( I assume that as they are the more prominent) but what about the GEFS Mean? is this line a average of the Control and Operational?

[Paul Sherman]

Some amazing pictures in this thread, hoar and Rime Frost are very beautiful to picture! Sometimes even better than Snow Pictures!