South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ December 12th 2012>

[john pike]

right i was not going to do this but what the hell

i pm'd this to a few members in september

this is my winter forecast

october will be cold and below average

wet early getting drier mid to end

nov early will be average temps

however week 3 til end could surprise with some snow

dec 1st week cold but not bitter

2nd and 3rd week average to warm very wet

very end of month to end of second week in jan

easterly and strong v low temps and heavy snow

going back to average to warm until mid to end of feb

last week in feb more heavy snow

march will be a cold month with 1 week snow

1 week avearge next week snow

after that early april cold but warming up the 2nd week and getting warm very quickly

i think a hot end to april

very hot summer

worked this out in september

now it is still a forecast so whether it works out totally right remains to be seen

if it is, then when this atlantic mush buggers off winter will start to get interesting

if you have any questions please pm me

thanks

ensembles

temps go above average from 14th to the 17th

very wet tomorrow night - friday

cools down on the 17th

FI is 19th

a 12 degree spread

not worth going any further

http://www.climate-uk.com/

cet to the 10th

1.9 below average

just missing precipitation

Edited December 13, 2012 by john pike

[Bluebreezer54]

Im having another go at posting a weather video. I hope it works this time.

......And it didn't. :-(

Edited December 13, 2012 by Bluebreezer54

[shotski]

Morning guys

You know the weather is looking grim when you go in the MOD and they are posting pertubation 17 etc in a desperate

hunt for cold. Glacier point has gone missing, or is he just content to sit back and see the evolution unfold ????

Shotski

[Summer of 76]

There are a number of people who seem to have gone missing and no doubt will return when the charts start showing cold again, although based on the latest 30 day forecast on the Met office web site we may have a while to wait. Last of the really cold mornings here at -3.3.

[Coast]

There are a number of people who seem to have gone missing and no doubt will return when the charts start showing cold again,

Sorry, you can't get rid of me that easily... Morning peeps!!

+2.0°C back home in Eastbourne but -3.0°C to -1.0°C on the journey to Mid Sussex. No frost to scrape which meant warm hands this morning!

Edited December 13, 2012 by Coast

[Steve C]

To be fair to GP, IIRC he said in his forecast that December would be 0.5C to 1.5C below average and unless the rest of December is pretty mild, he's likely to be in that range. I've seen a few forecasts saying that mid January may be a time for proper snow, so will keep my optimism still.

Anyway morning all!

Edited December 13, 2012 by Steve C

[Coast]

I've seen a few forecasts saying that mid January may be a time for proper snow, so will keep my optimism still.

Me too Steve, I think we will start getting into the zone by then with a bit of luck

[chilly milly]

http://www.weatherch...rg/ukmomslp.htm

would post fax charts but will explain briefly

tomorrow the rain comes in about 6pm

slim chance of some wintry stuff first

wont last as heavy rain starts for the evening

friday

very heavy rain and strong winds yuk

saturday

windy with showers on and off

not too heavy

sunday windy and some showers not too many and not too heavy

monday

wind easing might stay dry

low pressure hits our eastern block and has slightly undercut

this is what i am watching

we want the low to head north west

will keep my eye on this

Great forecast, thanks John.

[chilly milly]

right i was not going to do this but what the hell

i pm'd this to a few members in september

this is my winter forecast

october will be cold and below average

wet early getting drier mid to end

nov early will be average temps

however week 3 til end could surprise with some snow

dec 1st week cold but not bitter

2nd and 3rd week average to warm very wet

very end of month to end of second week in jan

easterly and strong v low temps and heavy snow

going back to average to warm until mid to end of feb

last week in feb more heavy snow

march will be a cold month with 1 week snow

1 week avearge next week snow

after that early april cold but warming up the 2nd week and getting warm very quickly

i think a hot end to april

very hot summer

worked this out in september

now it is still a forecast so whether it works out totally right remains to be seen

if it is, then when this atlantic mush buggers off winter will start to get interesting

if you have any questions please pm me

thanks

ensembles

temps go above average from 14th to the 17th

very wet tomorrow night - friday

cools down on the 17th

FI is 19th

a 12 degree spread

not worth going any further

http://www.climate-uk.com/

cet to the 10th

1.9 below average

just missing precipitation

I like this a lot, a very, very lot. Thank you John.

A chilly -5.3c here this morning. Will make the most of it, as seems last frost for a while.

Edited December 13, 2012 by Chilly Milly

[Coast]

Thank for that John, we certainly have some substantial rain coming:

Also an immense area of shear just over The Channel in France - mega!!

That may give the odd tornado or spout out to sea and definitely some high winds and strong gusts:

A complete contrast to earlier in the week:

Maybe even some rumbles of thunder along the coast!

[chionomaniac]

Sorry, you can't get rid of me that easily... Morning peeps!!

+2.0°C back n=home in Eastbourne but -3.0°C to -1.0°C on the journey to Mid Sussex. No frost to scrape which meant warm hands this morning!

Morning Robin,

I had the opposite this morning.It was -3C at home, -4C in Hassocks but rose to 0C in Brighton. The pool of cold air is quite shallow though.

Yesterday, I worked at East Grinstead and it was -6C at home, but rose to 0C in Turners Hill with far less frost as it obviously rose out of the coldest air. Worth remembering that the really cold pool of air is very shallow as the highest point that I drove through in Turners Hill would be only 150m so the cold descended below this.

Edited December 13, 2012 by chionomaniac

[TEITS]

A bitter -6C here this morning which is around 4C colder than I was expecting.

In some respects I don't mind this mild spell coming up because it will give my boiler a rest and hopefully reduce my bills!

[dallas]

Looking at the track of tomorrows rain I'm expecting to see some Met office warnigs covering most of the S/E

Edited December 13, 2012 by dallas

[Great Plum]

Still -3.3 in Charlwood... Again it looks beautiful outside!

[Coast]

I've just checked some other sources for tomorrows rain event and it doesn't look pretty. Check this NMM chart from NW Extra and see the red blob, right over Eastbourne......

Edited December 13, 2012 by Coast

[pureasthedriven]

A bitter -6C here this morning which is around 4C colder than I was expecting.

In some respects I don't mind this mild spell coming up because it will give my boiler a rest and hopefully reduce my bills!

Which, despite the frustration recently, rather makes the point of this December to date. It's been pretty cold for the last fortnight and within that in my location (SW London & Gatwick), I've seen some gorgeous hoar frosts, some good old fashioned freezing fog and a surprise rush hour snowfall that included 20 minutes of dustbin lid type snowflakes. So looking at it from a bigger view, the winter thus far has been pretty wintry - just a shame that the run up to Christmas looks so minging...

[Jason T]

Nasty, YUK.

[Mrsf16]

Current Temp: -5.2°C in Peterborough!!

[Coast]

You can see from this XC Weather chart where the cold still really digs in, but the further South (and closer to the coast) you get it gets relatively milder this morning:

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

[Sussex Jules]

Coast I have been keeping an eye on this little feature certainly seems keen to make us the soggy coast instead of sunshine coast. Oh well a mud free garden was nice while it lasted.

Thanks jp for sharing that forecast with us all. Lets hope it comes off but if it doesn't hey ho it's only weather.

[Coast]

Coast I have been keeping an eye on this little feature certainly seems keen to make us the soggy coast instead of sunshine coast. Oh well a mud free garden was nice while it lasted.

Mine is still soaking and likely to get a lot more tomorrow midday

[Keraunic]

Mornin each. Brrrrrrr! It's so cold here in Norwich. It's -5 at the moment but it feels like -20 in my house, its freezing. And it is frozen between the double glazing.

Have a good day everyone, and drivers...take care. :o

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all,

A very chilly -3.0 °C here so a thick frost, not a pretty hoar one like yesterday just the regular kind but still great, I'm not looking forward to the mild wet mush arriving, this is my kind of weather and I'd like to have kept hold of it !

A couple more from yesterday....

[Floatylight]

A bitter -6C here this morning which is around 4C colder than I was expecting.

In some respects I don't mind this mild spell coming up because it will give my boiler a rest and hopefully reduce my bills!

yes indeed,put 20 gas in meter on sat morning.It ran out yesterday morning had to put another 20 in!

[Bluebreezer54]

Good morning all, a nice crisp frosty morning here in nw London but Im missing my Sussex fix already and I've been back less than a day.

So its an imminent change weather wise and back to 50 shades of grey then ?